[Model output discussion - into July 2020]

3 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Yes, that's my reading too, mb. I have just checked the raw data from GFS for the week ahead too – and that looks pretty darned decent away from the NW. Sometimes this forum can appear misleading but I think much of it is that members read the models (quite understandably) with their location in mind. The NW/SE split is a common animal but can cause much consternation and confusion! 

Quite! As a Southeasterner, I spend all winter on here seeing possible snow predictions only to find out they're always North of the M4 corridor and consequently crying and then most of summer seeing doom and gloom on here, only to find out that is up north and gonna be OK in the SE and consequently smiling, lol!!xx

[Model output discussion - into July 2020]

9 hours ago, wellington boot said:

For whatever little it's worth, my impression has been that the UKMO has been quietly excellent over the past 6 weeks or so. Frequently well ahead of the others or standing alone against them, only to be proved right time after time. Would love to see some verification stats to check if this is right.

Not to say that it will be right this time, and i barely expect it... But whereas if this were the other way round I would have zero optimism that the GFS, say, would prove to be right, I feel some cautious optimism that the UKMO might be onto something.

Just from my own reading of their website forecast they were sadly wrong for this week! Last week they said this week would be dry with mostly sunny/cloudy, around 21c (for Surrey) but it's been quite merky, rained for 2/3 days with hardly any sunshine! They're currently saying better from next week so I really hope so!! I think we've been spoilt with such an amazing Spring!!x

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

3 hours ago, Darkcloud said:

Loved waking up to a storm at 5am, hearing the rain coming down and counting the seconds from flash to bang! Expected it to feel a little cooler today but nope, humidity high and 28.7C at the moment.

A lovely freshening wind just starting to pick up now.

Glad you said that because I had this vague memory of hearing rain in the night (maybe woken by thunder without realising?!) but hubby was convinced there was no rain and dry as a bone this morning! So I wasn't going mad, lol!

Just started raining again here near Epsom, quite a sudden change from blue skies to cloudy then rain! At least I don't have the water the garden tonight and the plants always prefer the good stuff from the sky over the hose!! Meto forecasting more early hours through to late morning xx

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

On 30/05/2020 at 17:07, TROY said:

Another very hot day, this reminds me of the summer of 1976. Lived in Peacehaven then, can not remember any rain from end of March till the end of August in 1976. Every day we had blue skies like today. Our Climate has changed so much.  As its been so warm a change from Hot too cold chat, does anyone have any records or knowledge of the great Christmas Day Blizzard of 1970. Again we were living in Peacehaven, right on the east sussex coast and we had a lot of snow, proper powder snow that drifted a lot. Take care everyone, the best of health to you all.

My poor Mum was pregnant with me from the April and right through the summer of 76! I think the extreme weather whilst I was in utero is what caused my weather obsession, lol!!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Well for someone who LOVES snow and longs for it all winter, I am now desperate for the opposite and some lovely Spring and Summer weather! Last week was amazing and I even caught the sun, despite the cool-ish air!! I see on the Meto that Sunday has a southerly flow and despite it still being breezy and cloudy, will at least be a bit warmer with 14c atm.... obviously subject to change at this stage!!xx

[Signs of Spring 2020]

I've been doing a lot of landscaping in my garden (aka bog!!) since January and you can really feel the difference now, sunlight changing in both height and strength - on the few occasions the sun has been out! The air begins to smell different to me and there are green buds everywhere! Such an exciting time of year, with hopes of warmer, drier days to come.... please!!!xx

[What Did You Think of Winter 2019/2020?]

Hopefully the payoff for an amazing summer coming up??!!x

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

If we don't get a lovely hot dry summer after this pathetic excuse for a winter then I will definitely throw a strop, lol!!! Not a great start to the new decade weather wise but maybe a bad blip before a corking decade to come?!xx

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

You wait years for an Amber Warning and then the one you get is for wind, not snow!!!! Aarrgghh!! Ah well, at least it's some excitement in these otherwise end of winter gloomy days, lol!x

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

11 minutes ago, Mikel Nimbus said:

Has London/Home counties ever had an amber warning for wind? I'm struggling to think of a time it has happened before.

I was thinking that too??!!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

27 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

In my defence I was digging lol

Best wait until our foot of snow next week before you start digging it!!xx

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

Gggrrr..... well I suppose we all knew it was all a bit too good to be true that far out BUT things haven't gone from wonder to blunder!!! Still lots of potential and could still change from run to run yet!

[Model output discussion - late November]

56 minutes ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off.

Yay, my Snow Dance worked!!!! One happy Surrey lass if this actually happened!!! Far out but at least it's nice to see something that gives SOME hope than dreary, zonal charts that give NO hope!!!❄❄x

[The Hunt For Cold Model Thread - Should It Return?]

I think the Hunt For Cold thread proved its worth last year!!! It worked great for everyone from the more technical posts to the straight up ramps and jokey banter in between!!! It frees up the Mods time too because far less deleting/moving of posts were needed!! I love it when everyone gets excited at some snowy looking charts and it's nice to not have that squashed by Mods having to do their job as they would have to in the more "serious" MOD thread ❄❄

[Model output discussion - late November]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

A lot of one liners being posted this evening, with a lack of any explanation.. Please don't make me hit the hide button as it has been good up until now.

Cheers. 

Is there a "Hunt for Cold" going to be set up for Winter yet, maybe tomorrow being the first day of meteriological winter?! I know a lot of people really enjoyed it last year and it gave you Mods a break too, lol!

[Model output discussion - late November]

Some lovely charts to view today, would be great if we could keep seeing them evolve the same way (or maybe even get better?!) over this next week!!

I was also wondering if there were any plans to start a "Hunt for Cold" thread again any time soon? The banter/hyperbole etc last year was great and made for some fun reading but without disrespecting those who wanted to stick to more serious model watching on the original thread!

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

I also have a similar question to Northern Sky above.... so at the moment we're seeing a trop vortex that's very different to most late autumns and if that was maintained into winter proper, could be good for us? Do we want an SSW now to displace what is an otherwise fairly decent state of a pv?!

Sorry if I'm waaaayyy off the mark, lol! Novice in training here

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

I'm loving seeing all these fab cold charts so early in the season!!! It's nice to be watching with not too much stressful desperation because it's February and you're still waiting for snow after a winter of Day 10 charts not happening, lol!!! Very nice to sit back and be happy to see if this happens or if not, wait for the next time I'm even happy with these chilly frosty and sunny Autumn days too!x

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

Looks like we could be in for one of those late autumnal week's where one day you're wearing a cardi and the next a thick winter coat and scarf!!! Love seeing the seasonal changes in full force!x

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

47 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Stop making me jealous! Unless our incredibly noisy fridge freezer is now so loud I can't even hear rumbles of thunder! Hoping for a storm here too; when the sun is out it feels so hot it makes me feel all optimistic

That last rumble I mentioned was the very last one!!! Oh well.... I'm going to hope that the weather is going to get warmer and sunnier now!xx

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

Went from really sunny to very dark and grey within a few minutes here in Ashtead (in between Leatherhead and Epsom) and I've heard 2 rumbles of thunder! Hoping for a storm! Ooo as I wrote that another louder and closer clap of thunder!!!xx

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

Meto showing thunder for about 5pm, here's hoping!x

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

The sun has come back out!!!! No fair!!!x

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

Can hear rumbles in the distance and the breeze has picked up here in Ashtead (nr Epsom) Gonna have to look out the window now!!xx

Edit - yep, lightening!xx

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

Summer drama lighting up the Regionals again!!! Love it!!!

Wish the storm was during the day so I could watch it in all its glory but possibly more chances later in the week!!xx