leicsnow

I am sort of happy as I was expecting a thoroughly mild month for my location, and just as I was beginning to believe I wouldn't see any lying snow whatsoever this winter it snowed and settled! Even though I had one day of lying snow this December, and even if it did melt by 2PM I am satisfied with the month given the circumstances.

There was a topic about him in the lounge a few months back and I was surprised it hadn't been moved, so I thought I'd start one here, especially as there's already a topic on Piers Corbyn. So, this guy first appeared in early 2009 when he said "I am therefore going to bravely stick my neck on the line again, and say that the Met Office indications of a boiling hot summer is incorrect". So IMO he was OK then - clearly knew he may have been wrong and made it clear he was aware. Soon after that he started talking about solar cycles and sunspot activity, something which he has emphasied again and again since. Later, at the end of the year, he said "I am also going to state that the Met Office is wrong about a mild winter for 2009/10, and what is all this about a 1 in 7 chance of it being cold? Forget that, it will be a cold winter for most of Europe and the UK." At this point he was trying to state a FACT that his forecast was going to be right and the Met Office was going to be wrong. A bit silly seeing as though it was 1st November and the winter hadn't even started, so how could the Met Office have been wrong already at that point? Hmmm. So in September 2010, when trying to predict winter 2010/2011, he actually forecast THIS winter as well, saying "I am currently predicting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall. This is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically affect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12." IMO that was a stupid thing to say, how could last winter affect this winter like that? As we are a third through we know that last winter hasn't create any "lag" effect on now. So after predicting Summer 2011 and claiming success, he went on to predict this winter. As I said before, he tried to forecast this winter last September, as well as in late January/early February this year. He has since blamed the models for his inaccurate forecast, saying he "underestimated" them. So what do you think of him now, and what do you think will be thought of him widely at the end of this winter, if as it probably will be that he is completely and utterly wrong.

Mark Vogan's revised written forecast: http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/

Todays max: 8.4c Todays min: 3.5c

January - pretty average February - mild and more Atlantic driven than normal March - very dry April - very warm and dry May - very unsettled June - very unsettled with one potent but very short heatwave July - alternating warm dry spells and mild wet spells August - very wet September - Quite stormy (shades of Katia) with a major heatwave at the end October - After a hot start very warm and moist with warm nights November - very mild December - cool zonal before mild zonal

Todays max: 7.4C Todays min: 4.2C

I've changed the title.

AWT, if we had all the model technology and we were on this forum at this time in December 1946, what do you think would be showing up on the models with the severe cold in store for late January? What would we be thinking about the rest of the winter as a whole (although we'd have to consider the fact that it was rather cool even before the severe cold that winter)?

Hail shower here now... 5.8c and dropping.

If it's an observation, it's not a very good one as the intense cold and snow ended around the 27th.

Recently in a lot of threads, there have been people (myself included sometimes!) complaining about the lack of cold and snow and effectively 'writing off winter' saying they don't see any pattern change for cold synoptics for the rest of winter. Then others come back at them with something like "It's only the (insert date here)! Don't get worried until (insert date here)!" I was just wondering, when do you think is the right time to get worried if you are not seeing the weather you desire?

They are publishing false information when they say "Last year Britain was in the grip of sub-zero temperatures that brought many parts of the country to a standstill." The severe cold and snow ended around the 27th December last year!

I think some people should come over here, http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71706-spring-snowfall/ to talk about snow in Spring.

Started off in the early hours as mild and rainy but later turning out to be a clear cool day. High temp: 8.5C Low temp: 5.0C The 8.5 was reached overnight and stayed at around 7C in the hours of sunlight.

It's amazing how much of the public consider February a Spring month. A lot of people I talk to would say "February is the end of winter getting into Spring". Considering March can do better than December is many certain set-ups says it all.

The 1st day of April 2010 saw some low land lying snow.

Since the turn of the century I've had on average about 1 snowfall each April, and lying snow isn't particularly uncommon even for me in the Midlands.

I'd come over to the 'Spring Snowfall' thread I started last month in the Historic Weather section to avoid going off topic about this winter.

Quite cool here at 6.8C & dropping. Clear skies too.

7.4C overcast having rained overnight.

And did he get it right?

I don't agree. I live in the Midlands and I had settled snow in March 2006, March 2008, the last day of March/first day of April 2010, and more before all those. London have even had settled snow in April 2008.

Indeed Spring snowfall seems to be far more common than Autumn snowfall, and in particular April has more potential than October. I didn't get anything in March this year, but my location benefitted greatly from March 2006 and to a lesser extent the Easter easterly in 2008. 6th April 2008 gave me more than the latter (and the Easter that year was in March, so before that). I'm not surprised that -20C is still possible in the Highlands in March, because the cooled oceans can deliver relatively low minima in that month (even though there seems to be more variation between maxima and minima as winter progresses and we head into Spring, and daytime temperatures tend to pick up more in the sun). In regards to whether a March scenario could compare to November 2010, I think the main flaw would be the stronger sun allowing temperatures in the day to pick up, even though November and March are seasonal equivalents in that November is the last month of autumn and the month before winter and March is the first month of Spring and the month after winter. In my experience March generally has lower minimum temperatures than November but higher maximum. Also, most late season snowfalls for my latitude and altitude tend to happen overnight, with a flaw following in the day but then a reload again at night, as seen for me in late February/early March 2005 which repeated for almost two weeks. Also, I have on average about one day with snow falling in each April, and lying snow is generally not that uncommon. 6th April 2008 definitely proved that with lying snow as far south as London. To see snow in May for me is extremely rare (and almost unheard of in June), although I expect there is a little potential in May for yourself.

A clear and coolish start gave way to overcast conditions in the afternoon but no precipitation. Temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, although still on the mild side. High temp: 9.1C Low temp: 7.3C Tomorrow looking similar to what we saw today in terms of temperature.

No hourly forecasts predicted snow which occured for me on the morning of the 18th, although it was very localised in my region as I live about ten miles from Leicester City, but very little to no snow occured in most parts of the city, and some of the villages surrounding mine got a significantly different amount. All in all I think my village actually got the best of the conditions in a ten to twenty mile radius of my house, and it sort of made up for the disappointment of not getting anything on the 15/16th when snow was forecast all night. It was great to wake up to and has made my outlook on December better than I thought it would be initially.