leicsnow

As mentioned over in the model thread, going by the latest ECM, GFS and UKMO runs, particularly the latter two, there is still a fair chance of seeing a slightly sub-0 CET month, considering the agreement of the three models for a northerly is currently quite good. However, I'd say at this stage it's more likely that the CET will be above 0c. As you say, it's most likely to end up between 1.5c and 2.0c, which makes my original punt (as thread hoster) of 4.5c unlikely. Also, February will probably be statistically the coldest month of 2012, unless we see a repeat of December 2010 at the end of the year.

Thankfully my village is often a sweet spot in Leics for good depth! Does that mean it could reach us soon

Since I joined this forum I've heard a lot about "convective snow showers" and how they can benefit us from mid-February onwards in particular. What's the deal with them and how does this theory work?

Now it's a bit nearer the time, how do you think the potential currently stands for snowy weather this upcoming Spring?

After the snow event at the weekend, and the snow event on friday (hopefully good), then I wouldn't mind a repeat of late February 2005 to top it off. Of course snow events similar to 1991 or others would be just as good.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71590-the-moaning-about-winter-thread/

-1.2c here, was only -0.7 just a few minutes ago.

To calculate winter index [10 (days with sleet or snow) + (days with lying snow) +(days with airfrost)] / winter mean maxima

Yes but May? I don't think so.

I just checked wunderground for your location today, and it says maxima of 10c? That's hardly springlike, and temperatures like that in late April / early May would be rather cooler than average, especially under clear skies.

Maybe this thread should be renamed "Beyond Winter" or something like that, and then maybe a summer thread split from this after spring begins?

Well we were certainly teased with the prospects of a very cold February.

Met Office have been acting very strange. First they suddenly changed their outlook completely yesterday and now they have made another drastic change, after just 3/4 hour since today's original update.

I would like some snowy weather throughout March until early April, followed by continental conditions until early May with clear, frosty nights and sunny, warm days. Finally, as days get increasingly longer in the run up to June, increasingly warmer days occur perhaps becoming hot, with thunderstorms developing in late May.

The 06z GFS has only a brief strengthening of the PV. Does this tie in with any stratospheric warming events which could cause the PV to shatter after tightening up initially?

Average max: 7.5 Average min: 2.5 Days with rain: 17 Days with wintry precip: 3 Days with snow lying: 0 Days with fog: 2 Days with thunder: 0 Winter index: 13 Overall comment: Pretty poor in terms of wintry weather, on the mild side http://forum.netweat...1-january-2012/