aggy
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Posts posted by aggy
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10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
What's this chart on, no chance of any snow down here over night and tomorrow, even though a cold front is about to come through from today's low. Tomorrow's low is coming in to far north
Been watching it and it’s definitely way north
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8 minutes ago, Jamiescot1 said:
Just thinking it’s higher up than what the 12 was showing … like I said could be dreaming but sat 24 Cant really go wrong with it in my eyes, Leave it a few hours and we will know if it’s going to sink haha
It really does look further north compared to sea level pressure map
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9 minutes ago, Jamiescot1 said:
Sense a bit of sarcasm there? Only my opinion looking at Sat24… Anyhow hopefully we get lucky over next few days
Where would u place the centre of that low on the Sat image
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3 minutes ago, Jamiescot1 said:
Sense a bit of sarcasm there? Only my opinion looking at Sat24… Anyhow hopefully we get lucky over next few days
No seriously asking the question ! I think it is further north
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1 minute ago, Jamiescot1 said:
Was just my opinion on the track of it, Anyone else think it’s further north than predicted?? Or am I just dreaming
Todays 12z
what do you think ?
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8 minutes ago, Jamiescot1 said:
To me the band out west seems further North than what was predicted??
They are just messing with us again
im
certain it moves ESE but could be wrong might be worth keeping an eye on
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Look how far north todays weather front has move I think the same will happen with tomorrows guys I can feel it
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9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Torture currently with the showers trying to get here but fading a matter of miles away, I think the skew t charts give a good explanation
Using Edinburgh Airport
Mid day
ideally we want the blue and red lines as close together as possible and here we note the gap
3pm note still the gap however a small pocket of CAPE develops which suggests the potential for shower activity in the vicinity
6pm we see the lines becoming closer towards the surface level which suggests precip attempting to reach the surface too and still the CAPE present
Tomorrow note how as we move through the day the lines become ever closer from the top to the bottom suggesting an increasingly favourable environment for precip (in this case snow as you can see from the dewpoints nicely below freezing, also note the wind increase and direction shifts in the top right corner box )
Found another model which tracks the centre through Wales- East Anglia
Gefs Mean (average of all 20 members in the suite)
I think the 995hpa isobar will be quite important with the front located near or just under and a combination of frontal and convective precip for Fife
Currently the key timing and greatest intensity along the front appears to be tomorrow 7pm - 1am Friday though snow continuing most likely until closer to lunchtime when the low starts to move southeastwards.
More remarkably low temperatures here overnight -4.8C + Dewpoint -7.7C
Fantastic post thanks for sharing . I don’t believe all is lost I do feel there will be a few suprises along the way tomorrow and Friday
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It’s a definite now cast situation have seen front move north on approach and also south
I’m just going to wait and see what happens on the day and try stay away from the mad house
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2 minutes ago, Nick123 said:
If the mad thread/onlytalkifyourfromsouth is to be believed even newcastle miss out thurs/fri. Metoffice could be seriously embarrassed, or maybe they know more than we do
This is what I like to believe
the last fax chart still had the low north and everyone in the max thread ripping shreds off the Met O
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3 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:
Sadly I think it’s over for the Glasgow area with another southward shift on the 12z. The Edinburgh area might just hang on but can’t afford any more movement south.
Yeah agreed looks like a bust ! What a bloody shame
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1 hour ago, SW Saltire said:
Most of us in with a shout…
So all is not lost
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1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:
Yes seems to be a trend. Northern England will get most of it
lovely morning here, clear blue skies and doesn’t ‘feel’ that cold esp with the sun out
off to the airport to go to London for work so will see what they get. Spoiler alert. Sweet fanny Adams !
Hopefully not
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Looking amazing in the north guys love the pictures
on Thursday/ Friday low gfs has pushed it a little further north again which would keep us in the game a bit better
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3 minutes ago, pdiddy said:
LIES !!!!
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1 minute ago, drm said:
I'd rather a polar low coming in instead from the north down the east coast
100%
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2 minutes ago, drm said:
It's a fine line we don't want it moving too far north or it would be a snow to rain event as the milder air comes in , we don't want it too far south or its just cold and mostly dry.
It sure is indeed
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Just now, skifreak said:
It's all over the place, I can find snow totals for any of the ski areas ranging from a couple more cm to over 50cm depending on model / ensemble member etc. For Aviemore on the GFS ensembles earlier there was a 30mb spread in surface pressure by Thursday night and an 19.2ºc spread in 850hpa temperatures by Saturday!
Think im
going to avoid everything until Wednesday can’t cope
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1 minute ago, Hairy Celt said:That looks like Scotland cops it. Has everything changed in the last few hours? If so, perhaps more changes to come!
This is what im
praying for but it looks like it’s sinking south but so far away so hopefully corrects north
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So you would think after 13
years on this site I could
read
models well I can’t okay .
what do we need the low on Wednesday to do as in the mid thread they are getting excited it’s pushed north meaning Thursday / Friday lows moves south ?
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That’s it I’m off Thursday and Friday now so I’m sorry I’ve ruined it for you all
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2 minutes ago, Ross B said:
For the sake of everyone living in the central belt who wants snow please don't take the day off as it'll definitely not snow then
Latest GFS brings the front in overnight Thursday into Friday but snow turns to rain/sleet central belt south Thursday morning so we could do with a slight shift back south down here... plenty of time for it to go either way though at this range so I'll not raise my hopes until Thursday morning if it's still showing as we've been here far too many times!
Hahahaha oh I know but you just can’t help yourself ! I would be in Ayr on Thursday so would miss the fun at home so could work here Friday and have the fun on Thursday. Decision decisions
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Right guys should I take Thursday or Friday off work ?
diffrent forecasts are showing large accumulations some on Thursday some on Friday
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If Fridays snow can stay as Friday snow event I would be very happy and preferably start around 10 am so I can get home in time
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It’s currently way north than forecasts I think you will be grand