Jackfrost

This feels increasingly likely to me. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that greater depths than forecast could occur due to the sheer intensity of the band, which should loose less intensity than a front on a collision course with a cold block (which this isn't).

Some very heavy precipitation over Southwest Wales, heavier than I anticipated, beginning to swing east.

That's fair enough. I admit this winter has been very uninspiring so far, as were the four almost entirely snow-free winters preceding 2017-18; a record run of snowless winters for me, bar the odd few flakes here and there. That said, today's event (and Thursday's, in all probability) have made it out of modelling hell to become nowcasting events, so all is not lost.

Do you mean reverse psychology? In that case, carry on!

I'm baffled by some of this negativity, and I say that as somebody who's very grounded when it comes to predictions of snow. Come on everyone! The Met Office's warning doesn't even kick in until midday and yes, while the temperatures will rise very slightly this morning, they'll fall back again as the afternoon wears on, allowing the precipitation to turn to snow down to fairly low levels.

Indeed, @Jayfromcardiff. Cardiff and Newport also do well.

Potential depths Thursday.

Yes, the morning (and throughout the day and evening) seems likely as things stand. The Valleys could see 10-20 cm, but don't quote me on that. Also, it's definitely sleet rather than plain rain here. It's very fine at the moment because it's light, but you can see it if it you look closely at a streetlight. Bodes well, and the latest BBC Wales forecast is, if anything, a small upgrade with continuous snow as far south as around Trefforest.

Sleet here. It's chilly at the moment but the real cold air is tied up in the front so don't expect to see any meaningful snow just yet. That said, @whiskers, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news, I really don't think there'll be enough snow anywhere in Wales to close schools today! Thursday, however, is a different matter.

Derek is known for not being a snow lover but I suspect his forecast of tomorrow's weather is correct: snow on higher ground (above 150-200m), a wintry mix or rain below that. Thursday and Friday are still open to question and in contrast to thinking earlier, it now looks like North Wales is in the firing line for the greatest depths due to the pivot of the system, based both on Derek's forecast and this evening's model output.

I urge a lot of caution regarding the end of the week but it's shaping up to be a memorable snow event as things stand, with Friday also potentially being in play.

Wales looking very much the sweet spot to be on Thursday, which ties in with what we've heard from the Met Office and BBC so far. This map shows snow in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, as well as the normally more prone regions, with only the extremities (the Vale, Gower, Pembrokeshire, Llŷn and Ynys Môn) faring less well. It's worth remembering that we're in a favoured location for snow here in Wales. Most of the country has altitude on its side, along with somewhat less of an Atlantic influence in a cold spell than the likes of Southwest England, Ireland and Western Scotland. As in the December 2017 and March 2018 events and in many of the biggest blizzards of the twentieth-century, Wales looks favoured.

For what it's worth, Jay, I feel that at the moment we're well-placed in South Wales to see snow this week, and not only on Tuesday. The uncertainty around this is due to the UK being dominated by an unstable cold air mass which makes forecasting this cold spell even more difficult than usual (our cold spells usually come from somewhat more stable northerly or easterly sources). Modest elevation will help, as always, but there are too many other variables at play to rule out snow down to sea level (for example, in Cardiff). Things should firm up a further this morning. It helps that both the Met Office and BBC are expressing concern about possible disruptive snow, but neither are in a position to give further details just yet.

Where do you keep getting this from? Those in the MOD threads are a capricious bunch: it's obvious to anyone that even in the mildest of winters (which this isn't, despite it having been benign so far), the season isn't over on Jan. 24th. Anyway, a decent GFS run for us this morning. I won't post the whole set of charts, just the snow accumulation map. This is exactly one week away so it's prone to change, but it's surely comforting to know that most of the next week will almost certainly have below average temperatures with plenty of moisture around thanks to the presence of low pressure.

The issue is that I get the impression that many people, especially in the model output threads, get genuinely down when the models swing away from cold solutions. In the past, a change in model output for the worse genuinely had the power to ruin my evening and even last February I was bracing for crushing disappointment if Storm Emma failed to materialise; such things have happened too many times in the past. I think it's a bit silly to dismiss the Met Office's accuracy and view on climate change as a joke or fantasy, though. They're one of the oldest and most respected meteorological organisations in the world dealing with one of the most notoriously changeable climates (i.e. Britain's). Meanwhile, climate change study is still an evolving science and it's important to remember that weather and climate are different. We may well have a repeat of 1979, 1963 or 1947 at some point, along with other severe winter months, but that will be within the overall trend of warmer temperatures both here and globally. Sad but true.

I hate to be the voice of reason nobody asked for but this is a great example of why we really need to put less faith in model output outside of a reliable timeframe and (not to have a dig at anybody in particular) those whose uncontrolled ramping is 90% of the time going to lead to disappointment. The Beast combining with Storm Emma would have been a fairly rare event in a pre-climate change winter, and with a warming climate it was never likely to repeat itself this year. It'll happen again but we'll need to wait. That said, some colder weather and some possible wintriness is likely over the next week, and after that we'll have to wait and see. I honestly find our climate too benign to take much interest anymore. Having spent November in Montréal and experiencing -16C temperatures and 30cm of snow (in November!), I find chasing the odd snowflake here a bit pointless. Thanks to the benign climate, though, we live in a wonderfully green country which is full of history that you can enjoy at all times of the year, so why not forget about the weather for a bit and get out and enjoy some low-season wintry walks, something you can't so easily do in much of the northern hemisphere in winter?

I have to admit to really enjoying yesterday's wind and rain, which helped to replenish any lakes and rivers still low after the summer's drought. It was very much a "stay indoors and appreciate the cosiness" kind of day. Early this morning, though, was a revelation with stunningly bright sunshine, sparklingly clean air and a distinctly chilly, gusty wind. Perfect for a stroll. Both sides of autumn within just a few hours, and no sign of any lingering summer warmth! Looking forward to this weekend's fun and games too, and even the (admittedly small) risk of wintriness of the back edge of the low.

Hi snefnug and the rest of you in the Wales discussion. I'm back quite a lot earlier than normal, not least because I've started feeling distinctly Autumnal lately thanks to the nights drawing in and a very cool-feeling night tonight with a (now set) full moon. My apples are now red and ripe, my pears are ripening rapidly and there are blackberries everywhere. Even though May-July was relentlessly hot and sunny, August has been much duller and damper and with last winter continuing until late March, it doesn't feel like five minutes since I was getting stuck in banks of drifted snow. Even though the summer was glorious... ... It won't be long until we're seeing scenes like this... ... Followed, hopefully, by something akin to this... I'm not being complacent because I still haven't forgotten the terrifyingly snowless winters of 13/14-16/17, but this year has been quite odd in terms of extremes; the climate is evidently changing. It's only its effects on us here in the UK, a rock perched on the edge of a huge ocean between competing air masses, that remains to be properly seen.

I'm expecting 5-10 cm generally within the amber alert area in Southeast Wales, up to 15 cm on high ground, with any depths greater than that confined to Southwest England. I don't expect the amber warning to go red this time, which is probably a good thing as severe winter weather this late in the season can cause havoc with our ecosystems and ewes and their newborn lambs inevitably suffer in huge numbers, too.

If you're impressed by your mini Alp, you should see the mini Kanchenjunga I slipped and fell into earlier. I didn't really mind... until I realised the snow had got inside my wellies. After that it became painful. For what it's worth, I'm about 70% certain that what's currently entering the English Channel will reach us.

Yesterday's snow was great for creating big drifts but you're right, the flakes were small and it blowing about left too many bare patches which are now being filled in by what's falling. Best of both worlds!

Pasting it down with snow here for the last hour or two, despite the radar showing very light and patchy stuff over us. Sublime!

It's strange. Many people might say "it's only weather" but I feel like us on Netweather have real emotional attachment to snow in particular. Wanting to enjoy it with family, memories, even just the way it transforms our world for a few days. I know that when I'm old, my main memories of snow will be of enjoying it as a little boy with my parents. I feel for you not being able to enjoy it with your daughter this time around. There's some renewed moisture pushing up from Normandy and I can't work out just yet what track it'll take, but I suspect it'll end up over Wales.

"Only" a woman? I didn't mean to sound condescending. Sorry. We all love weather and we sometimes get a bit too passionate, I suppose.

I know the possibility of SSW was mentioned weeks ago but Storm Emma didn't exist at that point, which is what Andy is angry about. My point still stands: you can't issue severe warnings of specific and imminent weather events weeks in advance.