Jackfrost

This is the Southwest thread, Jay. They don't care about us up in Cardiff. Now, what we're all really desperate to know is whether it'll snow in Budleigh Salterton.

All the signs so far are that any snow that falls in Wales at the end of the week will stay as snow as we stay safely within the cold air, and that's if mild air even reaches Southern England. Looking good!

I know you didn't ask me, Jay, but take no notice of it: it was just one run from one model. Conversely, it's not even guaranteed that the low will reach us. The cold block could prove so potent that it's kept well to the south.

Superb memories. Are they all from Caerphilly? Cheers for sharing! One family member who experienced it kept telling me the aftermath of the blizzard was like a scene from The Shining. I thought she was exaggerating until I saw these photos from Treharris and Bedlinog. Some more truly incredible photos here: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/nostalgia/january-snow-1982-started-snowing-14127091

I'm holding off on posting warnings on Facebook because a) around half of my Facebook friends are overseas and won't care and b) the half that are local won't believe whatever I post thanks to me having had egg on my face too many times in the past. (Where's our snow? Why did you feel the need to warn us over a dandruff-like sprinkling?" etc.) That said, something is going to happen this coming week. Of that I'm 99% certain, and rarely am I that certain. It's easy to forget that March has delivered some of our heaviest snowfalls in the past (the last decade or so of Marches (2013 excepted) have been benign overall, if not fairly warm and settled) and what we have approaching is anything but a normal cold spell.

The models are being very consistent in marking the period Mar. 1st-3rd with the potential for a very significant countrywide (as in UK) snow event but, given Wales' southwesterly location and mountainous geography, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we copped the worst of it, which has happened plenty of times in the past (and don't forget that Tredegar holds the record for deepest level snow ever recorded in a British town!) There are questions over milder air possibly encroaching from the south along with the low but that risk seems fairly low at the moment. Given that it's still a week away caution is still definitely needed, but something seems to be brewing.

GFS 12Z is on board for a potential major snow event from the 2nd into the 3rd. Some genuinely incredible cold and dribs and drabs of snow before then.

Don't forget what they say: no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing! I'm sure our canine friends will appreciate an extra layer or two, too, since -15 is going to feel cold whether you have a thick layer of fur or not.

Those at the BBC and Metoffice are no doubt aware of the potential for March 1st-3rd, as suggested by Derek's tweet. We've been suckered into getting excited over snow events which don't materialise in the past, but the depth of cold on this occasion may just vindicate our excitement!

And what's more re. that chart, it had slipped my mind that February has twenty-eight days and not thirty/thirty-one, meaning that the threat of snow from the south/southwest could realistically arrive in a week from now, adjustments depending. I don't recommend anybody getting too excited just yet but the last few runs have been consistent in something happening during the opening days of March.

Oh I agree that the cold is nailed on and that it probably will snow, but what we're all hoping most likely will not come within the first few days of the spell and won't come directly from the North Sea. Honestly, they can have their convective snow in Eastern England as long as we see a front approach from the southwest, collide with the stagnant cold air and stall over us for a day or two. Bingo: this is the kind of chart we need to keep our eyes peeled for:

But those are the low-res charts, Andy, and they're not reliable. I'm not trying to be a party pooper and I'm not saying it won't snow in Wales - it almost certainly will at some point! - but I'm not yet convinced of snowmageddon. Something akin to Jan. '45, Feb. '78 and Jan. '82 will happen again and it could happen within the next two weeks, but it probably won't.

I know all this talk of bitter cold and snow is exciting but for us here, at least for the first few days of this upcoming spell, it's likely to be mostly dry and cloudy in south and east Wales, brighter in the north and west, with the occasional flurry or shower. I'm not aware of a straight easterly, either in my twenty-seven years or from historical records, that brought large snowfalls to Wales via convection all the way from the North Sea. Frankly, it's the same logic as expecting Suffolk to benefit from a Bristol Channel streamer! Yes, there was lying snow in Wales in the famous easterly outbreaks of 1987 and 1991, but nothing too significant and nothing remotely close to what was seen in Eastern England. This is what Essex saw in January 1987: Now, Wales comes into play when disturbances enter the flow. In an Easterly, disturbances which particularly affect us are likely to come from the south or southeast or directly from the Atlantic and, given the right circumstances, can deliver some phenomenal snowfalls. The model outputs have shown particular interest in the period around March 1st-2nd; it's a long way off but the longer the cold perpetuates, the higher the chances are that the precise set-up will change and provide favourability to our little country. If anybody is interested in past weather, this is a good resource: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/archive-hidden-treasures/monthly-weather-report

Yes, I suspect that cold rather than snow will be the main feature over the coming week or two for most of us in Wales. Flurries are likely, especially in East Wales, and perhaps some longer and heftier showers at times, with the low temperatures meaning that whatever falls is all but guaranteed to settle, but nothing like what's possible in Eastern England.* *Not based on current output but on past experience with these setups.

Ahh, perhaps I should have been clearer: it's not exactly blowing a blizzard of fluffy white flakes up here, but there's a wintry component to the rain that definitely wasn't there a short while ago! Checking the Dowlais and Rhymney traffic cameras, it looks like it's now snowing properly up there.

Heavy rain turning quickly to snow here. The 12Z shows a heavy band of snow stretching from Southeast Wales up into the Midlands. Certainly an upgrade if this materialises and it would make this December, despite not being a cold month, the snowiest here since January 2013 with two significant snow events:

HI, friends across the Bristol Channel. I haven't been following the forecast track of Storm Ana; was it supposed to stall and pivot over Normandy in the way it is, and was the front associated with it supposed to spread as far north and west as it has (now approaching Bristol)? Perhaps I'm clutching at straws but it would be superb to see a second day of snow, even if it's light!

We shall see. In our favour, Storm Ana is definitely pivoting over Northern France (I haven't been following its forecast track and I don't know if that was supposed to happen), there's a bitter howling wind coming from the east, the precipitation band is still heading northwesterly, now approaching Bristol, and it's damn cold. Flakes in the air here, too; have been for about three hours. Working against is the fact that these days, forecasts rarely go so wrong as such a short juncture!

Yeah, I'm trying to not get excited because the likelihood is that nothing will happen. Do you recall hearing anything about the strong easterly wind this morning? I don't, and it seems to be associated with the storm over Normandy. Who knows, perhaps something is afoot up there!

I'm being cautious. Nothing is impossible and there's always a potential for surprises - yesterday, for one - but twice in a row would unlikely. That said, the centre of it does seem to be pivoting over Normandy and the outer edges have been steadily creeping in our direction for the last few hours, so who knows: perhaps some further light snow isn't out of the question! Do you remember Feb. 8th 2007? A low was forecast to track across Northern France but ended up coming north over southern Britain, giving us a second day of heavy snow.

Don't get too excited but the edge of that storm centred over Northern France is getting tantalisingly close to the southeast corner of Wales and the easterly wind is really howling at the moment. One to watch this morning.

That 6°C is for the centre of Cardiff and even that feels unrealistically high. Fear not, we'll be keeping our snow today. Actually, it's about to turn very heavy indeed in the Valleys.

All we need to ask for now is for it to stall, pivot for about oh, I dunno, a week, while not losing any of its intensity, for the rain to turn to snow down as far as the coast, for the wind to reach 60 mph or so, and we'll finally bother to dig ourselves out and return to normal shortly before Christmas.

The centre of Nelson an hour or so ago. Amazing, and disappointing, to know that it's pouring with rain just a few miles down the road while it's throwing it down here. Somewhere in South Wales is going to get pasted in the next hour as the front begins to stall and pivot and some very intense precipitation moves in from the west, and this will combine with gale force winds.

For those of us who have snow, I think the chance of it turning back to rain has now passed.