Jackfrost

I like an extra strong cup of spicy chai Ju, a habit I picked up in Calcutta, although there they add enough sugar to instantly send you into a diabetic coma. Just to warn you, there's nothing in Merthyr town itself - we even patches of snow lying here, further down the valley, but there's zilch in Merthyr. You're best off going up to Dowlais Top or, better yet, Storey Arms. But I'm sure you already knew that.

Gosh. I know I shouldn't allow something like the weather, something I have no control over, to influence my mood but this indecisiveness from the models is turning me into a gibbering wreck. I'm not even going to make any vague predictions for either tomorrow night or Monday/Tuesday. Hot, strong cup of tea, anybody?

Either it stays cold or turns mild. It's this shilly-shallying that's so undignified. (First person who gets the reference wins a trip to snowy Sweden)

I dunno Andy, I suspect Monday could be another high ground event. Still a lot of uncertainty though, which goes without saying.

I'm inclined to agree. And our forecast day of heavy snow on Monday has been replaced by heavy rain.

Tonight has been underwhelming with a slushy covering of snow which is now steadily melting. The Beacons are causing the showers to fragment. I'll pin my hopes on this instead:

I'm a little concerned; the Beacons seem to be sapping the showers of their energy. Nothing but dribs and drabs has fallen here for over the last hour.

Heavy snow up here, large flakes and starting to settle and it looks like there's more where that came from. Sky is positively orange out to my West.

There you go Jay. Afraid it's plain rain for Cardiff though!

Snowing here. And looking ahead, eighteen hours of snow, some of it heavy, forecast for Southeast Wales on Monday.

Oi! If we absolutely have to be shifted we must demand to be plonked somewhere near Norway. Our extreme Northerly latitude and mountains would ensure we get buried every single winter.

I like Behnaz and Derek but, without meaning to be rude, I don't think they make the best TV forecasters.

Excellent. *cackles* That said, if there's one place I'd like to see buried in snow, along with Wales, it's Southwest England. They haven't done well in the last few years.

That was brilliant. We really got lucky that day! Places not far West and East of us really did stay dry! We seem on the right side of marginal tonight, so there's nothing to stop our expectations being exceeded tonight, especially as the showers seem to be arriving a little earlier than expected.

They should be with us in an hour or two Andy! I'm expecting them to all fall as snow.

If anything Marcus, the heaviest falls might be in the hills of Mid and South Wales, as this map just posted by Derek Brockway on Twitter, courtesy of the Met Office, suggests: The Valleys look like seeing quite a bit, and that's 20cm over the Brecon Beacons. I'm on the border of the orange and red zones.

Another streamer setting up over Anglesey and Gwynedd, showers also breaking out in Ceredigion and Cardigan Bay. Some real pokiness in some of that precipitation.

I can't work out if the streamer is heading S-SE, towards Southeast Wales, or more generally SE towards the West Midlands. I think it's probably the latter, but we shall see on the next few radar runs! Either way, it's definitely intensifying.

Looking at the radar, I suspect we may begin seeing snow falling in Wales considerably earlier than expected.

I don't mean to get personal, Carl, but you often seem very negative about the weather. It can be quite tedious in this country, I admit, but it's important to try not to let it affect your mood (like it did to me a few years back). Then, after spending time in Calcutta in the 42°C heat and sauna-like humidity, not to mention the appalling and suffocating environmental and air pollution, mountains of rubbish and, er, sanitary problems *, my whole outlook on our climate and environment has shifted and compared to many parts of the world, it's a pleasure to live here. * It's still a great place though! I'd go back in a heartbeat. The streets smell of incense and spices and the locals treat you like a celebrity, asking for pictures with you and whatnot.

Wet sleet? Are you sure that's not a bit of an oxymoron, Andy?

From Steve Murr in the MOD thread: In order to avoid hyperventilation, I'm going to pretend he didn't say that. ...... Too late, time for pictures

Well, I didn't expect that surprise to occur tonight! One of the BBC One forecasts a few hours ago specifically mentioned wet snow across Southeast Wales and the Southwest Midlands tonight, and Ian Fergusson mentioned the same possibility in the SW England thread. Appears to be some kind of wintriness in the rain that's falling here right now.

I'm not one to get carried away but seeing how volatile the charts are and how unstable the flow is likely to be, I feel that a surprise or two is inevitable for us this week (unless things go very badly wrong and the cold spell evaporates before our eyes, which isn't going to happen at this late a stage).

We in Wales and the Southwest tend to be the forgotten ones when it comes to discussion of snow potential in the MOD thread. I would definitely be in support of merging the Wales and SW&CS England threads - it's the best part of England, after all! - so that we can all band together. I can see the North Devon coast if I walk to the top of one of the nearby hills and my family is descended from Somersetters who moved here during the industrial revolution, so we even have personal connections to the West Country in South Wales. I expect there'd be opposition to my merging idea from both Southwesterners and the Welsh though!