Jackfrost

Correct. Wales is in a far more favourable position for snow than all of England south of, say, Manchester.

Can you link me to those charts, Marcus? Not sure which ones you mean. Either way, I'm not too worried about things at the moment.

One day I'll be at a dinner party and somebody from, oh I dunno, Basildon or some place, will be wittering on about the 15 cm of snow they saw in whichever year, giving me the opportunity to interject with "stuff your 15 cm, Essex. We had 165 cm round these parts a few years back". The table falls silent and mouths drop... Now that's oneupmanship we can all get behind.

Currently on a knife edge, but this would be a snow party for South Wales if it were to verify with the 0C iso generally acting as the barrier between snow and rain. Cardiff would see snow while Weston saw rain, that's how neatly the isotherm slices through the Bristol Channel.

Oh, and another anecdote (which I've mentioned several times in the past on here, so I apologise if anyone is sick of hearing it); Tredegar holds the UK record for deepest level snow ever recorded in an "urban" area - 165cm in February 1963.

I'm afraid I was born eight years later, but it's a legendary event in South Wales. If I'd been born around 1965 I'd have been the perfect age to appreciate it properly (and the music of the time).

Sometimes, Jay, sometimes... but not always! This was Cardiff in 1982: It's wishful thinking, I admit, but what's to stop something just like that snowfall or even more severe at some point, given that our climate is seemingly becoming more erratic? The weather knows no limits. We may be warming up generally, but this impending cold period is proof that the elastic can quickly ping the other way.

I pondered that very question a page or two back, but in retrospect I think South Wales, particularly away from the coast, can be included with the Midlands. It varies depending on set up, of course - our weather is often different to the Midlands - but in this instance South Wales is shown as the southern extent of the very cold air. The charts are quite a way back in the MOD thread, but they're there. Inland parts of Wales, plus Shropshire and Herefordshire, often record unnaturally cold temperatures when the stars align (i.e. calm weather + deep snow cover), as shown in this chart: It's often the case that only Highland Scotland is colder in such a set up.

Yeah dbaloo, I agree. I'm not too concerned about specifics right now since the position of the low(s) is likely to change with each run. I was more voicing my frustration that poor Wales tends to be forgotten in the greater UK-wide geographic discussion! Oh pity us.

I apologise for the very IMBY nature of this post, but where does all the talk of "Midlands Northwards" leave us on relatively high ground in inland South Wales? Our climate is very different to that experienced by somewhere like Hampshire or Dorset with Wales seeing much more snow, yet we've also missed out on big snow events in the past (March 2013 being a painful example). ~ On a completely unrelated note, why has my post count dropped dramatically? I've been here since 2003, you know!

We're all going to see snow Jay... except for Cardiff, which will see endless sleet and hail. Everywhere north of Tongwynlais and Caerphilly Mountain will be blanketed in deep, powdery snow but as for Cardiff, zilch. Nah, it's too early to say whether we'll all see snow next week. One thing it's important to remember; I know it doesn't always seem like it but we're in a privileged position for snow in Wales, being able to benefit from battleground scenarios (to an amazing degree at times: 1963 and 82, for example), channel lows, Polar Maritime flows and direct Northerlies. Not many other places in the UK which can boast that. It's Easterlies that tend to leave us with little snow, but true Easterlies very rare anyway.

Yeah! Maybe you'll get an unexpectedly extended Christmas break. Just for fun, If I had to make a forecast based on that particular chart I'd call for temperatures of 0-4C across Wales with snow focussed on South and Mid Wales away from the immediate coast. Estimated amounts, 3-6" generally. Meanwhile, this shows a good fall of snow over the whole of Wales with up to 8" over the Beacons.

It shouldn't be taken literally because the charts at this range tend to show general patterns rather than the precise setup, but make no mistake: this is an excellent chart for Wales.

The fact that it's snowing heavily and starting to settle here is a good signal for the rest of the night.

There seems to be a streamer setting up off Anglesey and heading Southeast with the Valleys' name on it, almost like December 17th 2010 all over again! (that's if it was ten degrees colder).

Two pictures from a collection of many that I've amassed of this event: the blizzard of January '82, which is still the holy grail of snow events around here. I'll let the pictures speak for themselves, and bear in mind that the first picture is from Cardiff, a southwestern coastal city.

Real chance of a patchy ground frost in sheltered spots here in Southeast Wales tonight. The first frost is always a big event for me and always justifies a walk sometime around dawn as long as I can force myself to get up, but September 6th really is an early date for a frost. Not that I'm complaining!

Incredibly humid here, stifling even. No lower than 21.2C overnight. Sky looks very turbulent, slate grey with cumulos popping up all over the place.

Snowing heavily at Dowlais, rain turning increasingly to snow here.

Another reminder from me of what winter is capable of around here when the perfect conditions align: January 1982, Nelson. It has to be at least 60-70cm deep in the second-to-last pic, judging by its depth compared to the windows. This picture from nearby Treharris seems to show even greater depth, but I'm not sure if this is 1963 or 82. Perhaps somebody more knowledgeable about cars knows the answer. Now, let's look forward to a potentially warm, sunny Spring and whatever Summer brings, it'll nice to see the lush, verdant foliage again, and let's hope next winter is drastically different to the one currently in its death throes.

No widespread wintry weather is likely I'm afraid, just a resumption of the changeable, slightly milder/slightly colder conditions we saw earlier in the winter.

With a mild Azores high building in next week and no realistic signs of anything wintry beyond that, I think the question we now need to seriously consider is "is Winter over?" Not that it was ever really here to begin with, of course. During the high expectations for the Winter last Autumn I predicted a record breaking mild season. That may not have happened (although it certainly has been above average overall) but it must be among the most snowless on record away from higher ground in the North and Scotland.

That renewed streamer currently spreading into Anglesey is heading in the direction of Southeast Wales. I know it has a lot of land to travel over which will sap it and cause it to fizzle into nothing more than a few grains but... but... but... It happened on December 17th 2010, and if it's happened once it can happen again!

I was in the middle of that red warning and I can tell you with certainty that there was not 25cm - it was 18 at most - and there was no drifting. That cold spell wasn't particularly cold or severe, but it did contain two further significant snowfalls after the initial event. Northeast Wales was absolutely buried two months later in two-three times as much snow and didn't receive a red warning.

It's almost certainly not going to happen, Andy. It feels vaguely Spring-like today. Let's pray for an early start to the real Spring to put this wretched Winter out of its misery.