Jackfrost

Yes, let's. The shower activity is spreading south, even if said showers are not currently as intense as those a bit further north. I've also got my eye on what's spreading southeastwards across the Irish Republic. On that track it has South Wales in its sights. In addition, the GEM sends Sunday's slider on a southern trajectory which puts most of Wales back in the firing line for snow. Marginal in coastal and some low lying areas though, no doubt.

Quite the little streamer setting up over our parts, @andymusic!

Unless I'm mistaken, the mass of showers about to start exciting Northern Ireland and those following behind, in the Atlantic off the west coast of Scotland, have begun to move in a more northwesterly rather than west-northwesterly direction, which can only be good for us in Wales. Alas, Sunday is not looking great on the 18Z, at least at first, with everything a bit further north. However, as the system pivots and comes back south it returns to snow. Still time for adjustments though, even on that detail.

I'd stay up a bit longer if I were you, Jay. There's increased shower activity over South Wales at the moment and showers breaking out left, right and centre further north, so wait a few hours yet and see what the situation is at midnight.

Is the wind forecast to veer more northerly within the next few hours? Because that mass of showers currently over Northern Ireland appear to be heading southeastwards towards Northwest England and Northeast Wales rather than points further south. I've no doubt that whatever crosses the southern half of the Irish Sea and Cardigan Bay will re-intensify but the precipitation needs to be there in the first place. Something I've just noticed regarding even small bodies of water re-invigorating showers: see on the Netweather radar how Lough Neagh in Northern Ireland is causing showers passing over to pick up extra moisture before dumping it. A classic literal example of lake effect snow. Very localised, but the southern shore must be getting some very heavy snow right now.

That notspot over the Valleys and Cardiff which has been present on every run over the last few days has given me a complex. Not that it's particularly worrying me but, like with a beautiful painting, you simply don't leave a small part of it unfinished.

A different set up this time, but that's what happened in the famous blizzard of 1982: the low pressure system tracked through the Bristol Channel, resulting in -3°C in Cardiff and mountains of snow across South Wales while to the south, even just across the water in Weston, the mild sector moved in and it became very wet rather than white. The Netweather radar's prediction for Sunday.

Oh boy. Midnight Monday. Not great for the South coast and Southwest, admittedly, but those are some very respectable totals from the Valleys up to the North coast. Still, take heart those for whom it doesn't look good; there's still plenty of time for adjustments.

The 12Z is thankfully looking much rosier for all of Wales away from the west and southwest, due to everything having shifted to the south and west. Further southwesterly adjustments will hopefully (and are fairly likely to) occur, ensuring that more of us stay safely on the cold side of the jet.

Reading the MOD thread, you'd think that poor Wales doesn't exist. It's all "Midlands northwards" and "no snow in the South". Even the lovely chart above, posted by @A Frayed Knot is described as showing troughs passing down through England.

All subject to change of course, especially at this duration, but it's a bit concerning that the last few days worth of runs have been very persistent in a) keeping the snow largely away from Southeast Wales and b) delivering the goods from next week's sliders to the Midlands and Northern England, leaving Wales largely very wet.

You couldn't make it up! The last six runs or so have had a snow shield in force over Southeast Wales which just will not fill with those lovely white shadings, while even the Midlands and West Country are under a cloak of snow. Thank goodness it won't turn it out like that. We won't let it. Regardless, Sunday is a snowy old day across almost all of Wales.

As per the Netweather radar, it's turning more wintry as it goes. I expect it'll fall as snow in the usual locations (ie, the upper Valleys.) https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Where are you moving to? And most importantly, is it at a higher or lower elevation?

Hi, fellow snow fiends. There's quite a lot of interest in the snow charts over the next week or so for us in Wales. It's often easy to forget that after Atlantic-driven frontal events, it's North-Northwesterlies with their potential for plentiful showers and troughs that prove the most fruitful setups for Wales, even for the Southeast which is more sheltered thanks to the Brecon Beacons. Wales is a mountainous peninsula which is why we tend to do better for snow than the rest of Southern Britain. It was a potent streamer on a N-NWly that delivered well over 30cm of snow in the Valleys and Cardiff on December 17th, 2010. Let's hope for a repeat in the coming weeks.

Well, that's the first snow symbol I've seen in a forecast for a Welsh location this season!

I'm going to avoid winter predictions for now. We were more confident of a decent winter last year than we had been for years beforehand, and we ended up with some of the most benign weather imaginable. In the stormy, snowless winter of 2013-14, I wouldn't have betted on the following three also being almost entirely snow-free yet here we are! That said, nature is such that a cold, snowy spell is almost inevitable at some point, whether it's in the coming winter or we have to wait until 2027-28. In the here and now, there's going to be some flooding in South Wales if this slow moving rain band keeps up. It's been pelting down for well over an hour now.

Heavy snow at Dowlais Top and a flash of lightning followed by a long rumble of thunder here. A slightly more interesting night than I was expecting.

12Z going for Wales-wide snow later tonight. Little support elsewhere, though.

Here we go again. "Battleground scenario, Wales in the firing line, get the shovels ready" etc. This country's weather is enough to drive one loopy. Although in all honesty, the Marches of 2001, 2004 and 2006 were great months here with good snowfalls. March 11/12th 2004 I remember in particular, as it was the day of the Madrid train bombings. I'd been on Netweather for over a year at that point and the mood was subdued, despite the incoming snow. Nevertheless, there was a good 20 cm here although those sort of depths seemed confined to South Wales. A classic Atlantic-low-into-cold-airmass event.

Big, chunky flakes just came from nowhere. Lovely! Is there any truth in the saying that larger flakes are a result of the temperature creeping up, or is it a myth like "too cold for snow"? Been snowing non-stop since 4 or so here, but it's been mostly light. We had a dusting but it's melted back now, although the surrounding fields and hills are white. It should settle again if it the intensity peps up but I won't hold my breath.

Still a chance of snow grains/light snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday with growing potential for a more significant snow event next Monday-Tuesday, what with the unexpected model output this morning and the growing hints at a battleground scenario.

Something I feel I should mention despite the unreliability of the BBC's five-day outlooks and despite the fact that the forecast isn't backed up by the model output: There are quite a few hours (up to twelve) of light snow showing for much of South Wales Wednesday into Thursday.

I'm seriously starting to wonder if we'll ever see proper snow again. Okay, that was a little overly-dramatic of me, but we're now well into our fourth (!!!) winter without a heavy, notable fall of snow which is unheard of in the Valleys. During the whole 00s decade, not known for its harsh winters, the only winters without at least one notable fall in these parts were (IIRC) 01-02 and 07-08. All other winters saw falls of at least 3-4" which hung around for a few days and caused some disruption and more than one of those winters saw more than one notable fall. It would be easy to blame climate change (and climate change is a real, ongoing phenomenon), but the fact heavy snow has fallen widely elsewhere in Europe and the Middle East suggests that it's pure bad luck on our part. I'm sure it'll snow again - it has to - but if it wasn't for my pictures I'd have forgotten what snow looks like here in Nelson; I've already all but forgotten what it feels like. Sad stuff.

I don't mean to make anybody jealous but it's begun throwing it down with snow here. Big flakes at that. We have a covering on most surfaces from earlier. Hopefully the air will turn colder again behind this band currently passing through, meaning that low lying areas will see further showers fall as snow.