Jackfrost

Snow here now, more or less.

Rain now turning to snow over the Beacons.

As per the Netweather radar, the precipitation currently across Wales from the Heads of the Valleys northwards is already falling as sleet. A good sign surely? I realise that temperatures will rise somewhat as the main system arrives before falling back again, but at least we know that the cold air is pretty much here. In order to get the most out of this, what we really need is for the arrival of the system's core to coincide with the arrival of the coldest air. It probably won't happen (it's not in the forecast) but it might, and that's something to keep an eye open for. Also, as Andy says, tonight looks potentially more interesting than today for many of us.

I know not to take any one hourly forecast from the BBC as gospel as they do change by the hour but the current forecast (for Nelson) is one I'm fairly content with, whereas if I lived in Capel-y-ffin I'd be a very happy camper right now. Lovely scenery and history up there, too.

I'm erring on the side of caution here - there are reasons to be more optimistic than I am - but being Southeast Wales-specific, I wouldn't be surprised if the following happened: Settling snow of 3-6cm above 200m (particularly stretching in a zone from the higher parts of Merthyr over to Brynmawr/Blaenavon) and, of course, in Andy's back yard (he's pretty high in a non-narcotic sense). A transition zone covering most of the Valleys above around 100m, with slushy deposits or possibly 1-3cm. Sleet and cold rain along the coastal belt. Sorry!

Regarding the snow on Thursday/Friday, I remember several similar setups in the 03-06 period which were predicted to only impact North and West Wales but which actually brought heavy falls to my neck of the woods. Also, if I recall correctly, the northerly of December 17th, 2010 was predicted to mostly impact North Wales, and we know what happened there. On the other hand, it's far from unknown for the Beacons to sap showers from the north of all moisture, as largely happened in the half-hearted northerlies of Januaries 14, 15 and 16, although this upcoming airstream will be more unstable and unpredictable. In other words; it's still all up in the air as to exactly where in Wales will see the most snow.

Even at my (relatively respectable) altitude, I haven't seen more than 2-4 cm of snow since March 2013. The much-loathed winters of the 97-08 period were much more productive than the last three and in all my time of record-keeping, I haven't recorded more than one successive winter without at least one (10 cm plus) fall of snow, and several winters (00-01, 03-04, 05-06, 09-10 and 10-11) had more than one: 12-13, 13-14 and 14-15 were largely snowless, and this one isn't off to a good start. And on the flipside, prolonged Summer warmth and storms have also been mostly absent in recent years. It's all very monotonous. But back to snow, and why is it increasingly feeling like a distant memory in Southern Britain? Sadly, I suspect it's a case of a changing, warming climate rather than a run of bad luck. Perhaps we will see a widespread, lowland fall this winter, but isolated weather events don't make up for a changing climate. And besides, I find it hard to desperately chase down each morsel of cold, hoping it'll gift our shoes with a few flakes of snow, when the planet as a whole is warming at the rate it is. All very sad.

Well, here's the latest. For reasons unknown to me, the cameras alternate between black and white and colour.

That's a possibility, Andrew. Sorry about that. It's still going strong up there (it's a high altitude motorway: 375m, to be precise) and I'll post a few more captures if I'm still awake.

Snowing very heavily and settling on the A465 in South Wales. Torrential, driving sleet where I am. From the traffic cams:

Snowing and settling at Dowlais Top. Torrential, driving sleet here.

I was going to post this in the Wales forum, my home turf, but it's currently a bit of a dead zone; Chivenor on the north Devon coast and St. Athan on the Vale of Glamorgan coast are both reporting sleet. That can't be correct, surely? It it is, it bodes well for nearby inland areas in the next hour or two.

Pretty certain it's sleeting here, despite the radar showing rain. It's damn cold, whatever is falling from the sky!

18Z keeps Sunday's snow in roughly the same position. Barely twenty-four hours away now.

Yes, it's too marginal to dismiss out of hand. The ingredients are there; Wales stays on the cold side of the low, temperatures are likely to be no higher than 5°C on higher ground (100m+) and the intensity of the precipitation makes evaporative cooling a possibility. Perhaps Sunday really will be nothing but a standard washout, but I think the possibility is worth talking about. Cold and icy here now. Perfect November weather.

I still hold that conditions are favourable for snowfall of some kind on Sunday in the parts of Wales susceptible to snow in this kind of set up. Despite the reluctance of the BBC and Met Office to use the s-word, I won't back down until I see output from different sources in agreement and strongly suggesting otherwise.

After a bit of a wobble in last night's output, Sunday's potential event is back on: It's repeated on Monday, only with Southwest England joining in this time: What do we think? Could the snow risk maps, notorious for over-egging things, come to fruition? They've been anything if not consistent.

Is there a reason why people are seemingly so disinterested in Sunday's potential event? I realise that the details are not concrete, but surely falls of snow are possible in the areas highlighted in the charts I posted above? I mean, if those in the MOD thread allow themselves to get excited about trends way out in FI, surely it's justified to talk about actual weather events three days away, weather events which recent output has been consistent in supporting?

The weekend's potential is still there on the 12Z. The last dozen or so runs have been showing something similar so I can't help thinking that something is afoot. Higher parts of the Valleys up into Mid Wales, above 150m or so would be my guess, would likely see some kind of lying snow based on this output.

Snow grains here, no doubt from the specks of precipitation ahead of the front as showing on the radar. 1.8°C.

I suppose so, Andy. I'm usually very cautious as we approach winter - the last three years have hardened me - but I'm much more confident this year. Snow is in the forecast for Capel-y-ffin tomorrow, (by far the coldest spot I've been able to find this far south with its own forecast from the BBC), when earlier it was plain rain.

Year after year, it makes me sad to see how quiet the Wales forum is. Perhaps we should be merged with the SW and CS England or Midlands forums?

Second night in a row with a widespread frost here, third of the season so far. I have to say that I've really enjoyed this month. After the freakish warmth of September I had low hopes but around here it's been cool and seemingly more sunny than not, and the changing colours seem more vivid this Autumn. I don't mind Atlantic storms but this weather is much more preferable and I don't know about all of you, but I find the cloudscapes formed by an easterly flow very different to those from the westerly. I'm not sure why that is, but I'd wager that the dryness of the flow plays a large part.

12.2°C. I don't see an end to our run of above average months anytime soon.

I hate to be a negative nelly but this exceptional burst of heat only adds fuel to my fear that we're in for another mild winter, perhaps to a much greater, possibly record-breaking, degree than the last three. The fact that all three Summer months were above average to some degree despite constant complaints of how cool and underwhelming the weather was shows how our perceptions of what constitutes warmth have quickly changed. The cluster of cold winters between 2008-13 seems to have ended and the scientific proof of a rapidly warming world, especially since the end of Europe's cold winter cluster, suggests that the odds are stacked against anyone with high expectations of a notably cold winter. That's not to say that cold outbreaks and snowfalls are not possible in the mildest of winters - I still remember fondly the frosty, foggy spell before Christmas 2006 and the two successive days of heavy snow in February 2007 - but I suspect that mild and possibly wet weather will be the overarching theme of this upcoming Winter. Also, while I suspect that this kind of thinking is not popular on a forum like this, I struggle to find much joy in a UK cold spell in the knowledge that the planet as a whole is warming at a frightening speed while multiple species hurdle towards extinction. That said, I still love Winter whatever the weather. Here in the west, there's a certain charm to watching the weather rolling in fresh from the Atlantic, the howling wind and dark nights. It really does take snow and low temperatures to make it special, though. Come back, December 2010. The minus double-digit temperatures, humongous icicles, Christmas lights and perfectly still and silent nights that followed the 40 cm snowfall of the 17th was the most beautiful I've ever seen this country. (Looking back, this post might have been better suited to the climate change forum, so feel free to move if that is so).