Snowy Easterly
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Posts posted by Snowy Easterly
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yep a bad set of runs so far, as i said we were probably led up the garden path again last night, now we need the ECM to pull a rabbit out of the hat
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What time are the ENS out? Might cling on if its not too long.
they are out between 5 and 5 30 i bet they have flipped to what the OP is showing, rubbish
Oh dear even NOGAPS has lost the Greenland high now
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If the GFS ever gives us a stella run what is the betting its a cold outlier
i use to really respect the GFS but IMO it has performed really poorly,that said it
could be 100% correct and by 0800 today we could be back to where we were yesterday
morning
Edit why am i up at 0435 LOL
C.S
Because we are crazy and we put ourselves through this torture and probably get no reward for it.
GFS in FI is yet another rubbish toppler
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UKMO is not like the GFS 18z ensembles as well, were we just led up the garden path again ?
UKMO looks more like it though.
I'm really not very good at reading meteociel but i would imagine there is more potential in ukmo than gfs so we'll leave it to the experts when they wake from their slumber.
im not sure what would happen after T144 on the UKMO
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GFS just loves its strong jet and raging zonailty
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A bit better than the 18z but its still flat as a butchers at 78hrs.
No way its going to be like 90% of the 18zensembles.
Its becoming a bit tiresome now it will probably be another outlier.
could the OP somehow be right and all the ensembles wrong, the 00z is not like 18z ensembles,
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NOGAPS looks good but for some reason i can't view the northern hemisphere charts on it
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Yeah, no doubt it will arrive in March!
If the run went on further would we get the easterly or would it just dive into southern europe like usual ?
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Oh dear GFS in FI want's to tease us again with height building north east
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Well I've more or less come to terms that nothing of real note is going to happen next week now.
As for the rest of the winter well I really do not care not care any more, if it snow's then great but if not no big deal, if its not as if we should be really expecting anything more anyway bar the last few years which seem to have fooled us.
Who's willing to bet that we'll finally get our much sought after northern blocking in the summer followed endless southerly s/south-westerlies in the autumn and winter again lol.
yep northern blocking will come back at some point and i bet it will be in summer again, then come winter raging mild zonality will strike back.
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UKMO is a standard toppler
Meh
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Anyone following the 0z?
yes up to T102 and it looks the same to me
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I must be looking at a different set of charts maybe
We live in the UK not murmansk
yes we live in the UK not Barcelona
the ECM is a downgrade no two ways about it
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Ohhh, Mr large teapot is getting all upset now..calling members ''South East mafia'' All because his beloved GFS is lacking respect...
What backtrack?
Ok it might not of backtracked to the GFS but it certainly has downgraded the depth of cold from a couple of days ago, if anyone is happy with the ECM then they have low standards of winter weather.
Last Feb the ECM predicted raging easterlies a couple of times, that never happened this model is not as good as some make out.
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Im not shocked by the ECM backtrack tbh, it was poor at times last winter too, that model gets to much credit in my eyes.
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This run looks to perfect can it happen ?
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Control run in FI is a stonker
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When does the 00z come out? Thanks
About 3:30
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you mean Like 1916 1917 1929 1933 1937 1941 1946 19471954 1955 1956 1966 1977, 1986 1969 1978 AND 1991and 1996.
you missed out 63 lol
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deep cold goes into eastern europe and then greece as usual
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We usually only get 2 seasons anyway spring and autumn.in the south, I dont really think this can be classed as winter, just been autumn really from around 5th 0ct
todays weather very similar to 12th Sep with hurricane katia
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Once again next week we see synoptics that we would want in summer, like when we had the euro high in september and october, albeit this time the zonal train shoves the high out the way fairly quickly.
again i will say i bet we typically get nice winter synoptics come march or april when it is pointless unless you live on high ground.
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Who wants to bet that we will have a super strong Greenland high in june with strong north easterly winds. and a deep negative AO and NAO
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I think the wasp incident at the PDC darts champs tells us all we need to know about this current 'winter'!! To think wasps are still alive at the end of December is staggering and a reflection of how mild it has been since the onset of Autumn.
For me the first 3 weeks of Jan are looking dead for cold and unless we see some pretty dramtic changes in the next 4 or 5 days,well....
Yes that is terrible, i bet the spiders and flys in my shed at my allotment are still alive not to mention how many weeds may have grown since i last went there about 3 weeks ago, i bet we get more frosts in april than in january this year which will kill some tender plants.
Model Discussion - 16th January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Time to get the prozac out, ECM is dreadful, Zonailty goes on and on and on