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Vince Coombes

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Posts posted by Vince Coombes

  1. 4 hours ago, fergieweather said:

    Bear in mind much yet to be established re developments next week, despite some weirdly hysterical/quasi-suicidal remarks otherwise. We continue to expect marked model swings in near-term. Importantly, note some incipient EC support for the UKMO assessment from this morning, which suggested potential MJO-driven shift could appear now away from Atlantic to Scandinavian blocking. This early notion *may* yet have legs. Neither EC32 nor GloSea5 strongly assist us here: given (interestingly) mixed/indeterminate signals (or effectively none at all, in a very vacant-looking set of EC32 parameters by later Jan!), which is in stark contrast to their more bullish prognoses across the winter weeks already past.

    Cheers for now.

    Edit: Clusters 1+2 of 12z EC 500hPa T+360 herein to illustrate UKMO rationale

    Screenshot_2016-01-08-20-53-30-1.png

    Great post ,had wondered where you had gone ,a very valued member ,no spin saying it how it is.

    • Like 1
  2. 29 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    After seeing those fax charts I'm even more confused now... I can only assume th MOGREPS and other restricted models we don't have access to are going against the messier evolution that has been predicted today by the GFS/ECM.

    They do my friend Tom C on TWO saying that 22 out of 23 mogreps runs continue the cold into next weekend .good to be back in the madhouse..lol.

    • Like 4
  3. Sadly, the ingredients are in that area for storms... Was thinking I was going to miss the rain all together being in the gap. But now the gap is filling!

    Problem is THEY are always right in that area .just can't get my head around how they have absolutely no problem crossing the north sea yet even the short 26 miles (shortest point)hop across the channel kills them .staggeringly unbelievable
    • Like 2
  4. Thunder storms are becoming the new snow! Plenty of promise, then it all goes pear shaped and we are left with nothing! :(

    Thunder storms are becoming the new snow! Plenty of promise, then it all goes pear shaped and we are left with nothing! :(

    that's my thinking aswell either that or they are all up north or in northern ireland.AylesburyBucks
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