Relativistic
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Posts posted by Relativistic
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Any Geordies about? Noticed that Newcastle is/will be having an absolute shocker this week. Maxima in the 12-14C range, thick grey cloud and a keen wind.
We've fared much better here as we're less exposed to the North sea.
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Wall-to-wall sunshine all day here.
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The colour palette is likely fixed year-round, meaning an absolute scale is used and not one which looks at deviations from the mean. The mean annual temperature depending on locality is something like 8-12°C, so these sorts of temperatures will apear most neutral when coloured.
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Hot sunshine here in Edinburgh after many hours of murk.
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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:
I'd better not show a picture of the clear blue skies we've had since dawn break. The power of the Pennine chain cloud breaker! I'm surprised the cloud has encroached as far as west Wales, given high ground inbetween. We are not that far off the NE Durham coast closer than Manchester, but as said those Pennines are doing the trick.
The Lakes are stunning during spells like these. Went a couple of years ago in scorching June sunshine. Climbed up to Stickle tarn to cool off, then came had a pint at the bottom of the hill on the way back, all in glorious sunshine.
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7 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
I've been to the Lowlands and Highlands a few times, both in May, June and July. It's been a mixed bag in my experience. May and June when I went, it was definitely drier, but fairly cool. All down to luck really.
When I visited the Highlands (Fort William for Ben Nevis etc, then some hiking and camping in the Cairngorms) it was mid to late July and we experienced both heavy rains and hot sunny weather, enough to sunbathe on the beach at Loch Morlich (with a spot of swimming of course). And much milder for camping overall especially in the evenings.
One thing I will say, is that the midge / mozzie situation in July was abominable, and quite possibly pushes my vote to saying my my trip in late May to early June was the more 'visitor friendly' experience. Me and my friends each had a personal swarm following / attached to us at all times.
Stayed in a cabin next to Loch Tay last June for four night and came back with perhaps around a thousand visible midge bites. Luckily for me my skin doesn't swell up or react to them too badly (usually just small red spots).
Am going again in two weeks..
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7 minutes ago, danm said:
Was actually referring to someone else, but the point stands. I agree that pesky cool wind is not great, as I mentioned. But it's really not as bad as one or two people are making out. Sunny and 21c today should feel very pleasant.
When it's 24C no doubt people will be complaining about how cold it is.
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23 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
It's a complete flip of the traditional pattern for the British Isles.
Not begrudging the folks up in Western Scotland and Ireland this weather though - it's very rare for them to have such a splendid run. I recall seeing the forecast many times over the years when we have 25c days in London but Glasgow, Fort Willian, Belfast, Dublin etc all wallowing in mid to high teens at best and cloudy.
More surprisingly, is that parts of Ireland and Scotland this week will likely be notably warmer than parts of Portugal and Spain, and certainly huge parts of central and Southern Europe, who're currently experiencing cool and stormy weather (North Italy, for instance).
Very crazy scenes! Anybody tourists who've booked a week travelling around Western Ireland this week have seriously gotten lucky.
Not sure this is entirely true; the north-west is often settled at this time of year. I think the bolded bit applies more as we head into high Summer.
That Ireland and Scotland will be warmer than parts of Iberia is surprising though.
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The Met's cloudcover forecasts have been all over the place recently. Is today going to be sunny or cloudy in Edinburgh? I have no idea; the forecast has changed several times in the last two days (including this morning).
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15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Just looked at CET stats, December beats May. Dec 2015 9.6 degrees, second mildest 1.5 degrees below at 8.1 1934.
Dec 2015 brought a persistant long fetch SW flow from beginning to end. The worst month ever from a Lake District perspective.
Worth noting that winter months experience the most variability. IIRC, in terms of standard deviations from the mean May 1833 is a larger anomaly relative to the series mean.
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Foggy all day here today.
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3 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:
Temperature wise this May is nothing like May 2012 which was much cooler than average until the final week.
Famously the May that Piers Corbyn predicted would be one of the coldest of the previous century. For a good while it seemed like it might be. Then the final third was one of the hottest ever recorded.
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4 hours ago, reef said:
Indeed. The 1991-2020 average for all of May is 13.8C at Heathrow. Half way through the month and it is standing at 13.3C. As May is a warming month its been pretty average or slightly above.
It's not all high minima either as the mean max is 17.3C, right about where it should be.
B87 would have you believe the mean max in May is 35°C.
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15 minutes ago, danm said:
Fortunately for those cities, they don’t have a big cold sea directly to the east of them. Bad luck for us today. Plus a forecasting failure for many eastern areas. You’d think in this day and age they’d be able to more accurately predict the extent of cloud and how quickly it’s due to burn off.
Yup. Here sometimes the sun pokes its head out mid-afternoon but by half 5 the haar's rolled in and the temperature's dropped significantly.
Agree re cloud burn-off. The Met Office forecast for yesterday and today has been poor. Last night the cloud never burnt off despite the forecast suggesting it would so in an hour's time for five consecutive hours. Today they suggested the cloud would burn off early afternoon, but in reality it's been clear for hours.
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It's a stunner here today. Spring proper has arrived.
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2 hours ago, B87 said:
I do wonder if our summer index for 2021 was actually higher than it was in the NW, even though the summer was good there and terrible here?
Not the north-west but summer 2021 was very good here. I say that as someone who grew up with reliable Essex summers.
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1 minute ago, danm said:
Is it so unbelievable for the UK?
Even the dreaded Summer of 2012 was preceded by a hot last week of May:
Not a well-known fact but the final third of May 2012 was one of the hottest on record.
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2 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Such bipolar weather in London. Heavy downpours, then out comes the sun, then another downpour, then sun - repeat ad infinitum.
I.e. Spring weather.
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16 hours ago, summer blizzard said:
I would suggest the records in the warmer season are a little less threatened often because of amplitude. April-August seem to have records not much more than about 3C above the 1991-2020 mean while i believe the winter months tend to have higher amplitude departures.
Yes.
On the difference in amplitude, May 1833 is more extreme by standard deviations from the mean than December 2015 is, despite their respective differences from second place being 1.2°C and 1.6°C (on legacy; not sure what's going on with current at the moment).
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10 hours ago, snowray said:
Night temps have been pretty high while daytime max temps very average or below, plus it’s been windy and cloudy a lot of the time so it gives the impression of below average. No warm settled spells either of course, but I suspect that northwestern areas did better overall.
Indeed. Mean wind chill might be a good way to measure how cold we perceived April to be, since a number of people have mentioned it. Anyone got any statistics for mean wind speeds and/or wind chill?
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On 02/05/2023 at 11:08, Scorcher said:
We've probably been accustomed to the leaves coming earlier over the last few years because there have been so many warm Aprils. I recall 2008 being very late. Most trees were pretty bare a few days into May and then when the warm spell started they were almost fully in leaf within 2 days.
Can't remember 2008, but we were well into May during chilly 2013 before things leafed out down in Essex. Want to say the oaks struggled into June.
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2 hours ago, Shillitocettwo said:
It's insane that the top 5 May's were all pre 1850, it's one of those months climate change has yet to topple, although one gets the feeling when it does it could be obliterated December 2015 style!
The current record is already a December 2015 though. Even in a warming world May 1833 will be difficult (not impossible) to beat.
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On 22/04/2023 at 14:54, TwisterGirl81 said:
I would be shocked if the CET in April for southern England wasn't at least a few degrees celcius below average, it is has been a cool spring!
This was the original quote though. Qs is right. The deviation from the mean in all cases doesn't look awful.
I suspect the reason it's felt poor for so many is due to the lack of variation. Almost no days have hit 20°C anywhere in the UK -- and you can tell. I travelled the length of England on Friday and most trees were bare the whole way down. I'm making the return journey today and I suspect the situation will be no different. A week of sunny, warm weather would really get things going.
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June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Seem to remember June 2013 beginning in a similar vein.