Relativistic
-
Posts
1,711 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Relativistic
-
-
19 hours ago, Don said:
Yes, that has been an on/off trend since the mid-January cold snap.
All winter. There were a few sub-minus-10C nights in the south during December, and many more fell below -5C.
19 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:April 2021 would surely be added to the list for late winter cold. At least in terms of average minimum temperature (much lower than January this year).
May 2021 also felt particularly cold at times.
Indeed. I saw falling snow in May 2021.
-
3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Oh dear.
Feb 2004 was 11.4°C to the 5th (see Roger's post above).
-
3 hours ago, Scorcher said:
Very unlikely it will drop below 5C now- should hold steady at the very least today and we don't get the corrections at the end of the month anymore.
At the end of the day it's still a mild month overall- anyone suggesting it's been cold or even average is misleading people IMO. It may even have been in the 'very mild' category before the 1990s.
The mild weather has been far more notable than the cold since mid December- from December 17th to around January 14th it really was an exceptionally mild period- almost unmatched in fact. We had 8 days in double figures here in the first half of January and 6 of those days were above 12C.
The cold spell from mid-month (not that notable however) has disguised what has been a predominantly mild month overall. Even with the cold spell, only 4 days have failed to reach 5C here all month. A few cold nights have brought the average down more than anything.
What have you been reading? I haven't seen anyone suggest that the month as a whole has been cold.
I think the colder spell was best in the south-east. The CET zone didn't fare too badly either, with four daily means at or below 0°C and three minima below -5°C. It has nothing on last month, but at least we've had some cold to speak of (unlike many winter months of recent years).
-
2
-
-
15 hours ago, CreweCold said:
No point in it being desperately cold if there's no snow IMO. Fair enough if it snows and then the cold maintains it afterwards, but that period was an utter waste of decent synoptics.
Ideally I'd have both, but if I had to choose one then I'd always pick cold over snow. Was a delightful period of weather IMO.
-
1
-
-
19 hours ago, SummerShower said:
Is it me or have most of January's figures increased by 0.1C on today's update?
Looks like it. The 17th has been adjusted upwards to -1.3°C, and our marginal subzero day on the 18th is no more, now showing 0.1°C.
-
I personally would include 0.0°C as 'subzero' because the error is finite and so it could have been.
Akin to giving the striker the benefit of the doubt during a marginal offside decision.. or so it used to be.
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
How many sub zero days did 2013 and 2018 manage Vs 2022/2023.
2012/13: 14 (including a '-0.0', which I can only assume was subzero to the second decimal place)
11/12: -0.9
12/12: -2.4
13/12: -0.5
13/1: -0.0
16/1: -2.8
17/1: -1.8
18/1: -1.0
19/1: -0.8
20/1: -0.3
21/1: -0.3
22/1: -1.2
23/1: -0.3
25/1: -0.4
11/3: -0.5
2017/18: 7 (excluding a '0.0' on 10/12/2017, which I can only assume was above zero to the second decimal place)
12/12: -0.4
26/2: -0.1
27/2: -1.0
28/2: -3.5
1/3: -3.7 (date record)
2/3: -2.3
17/3: -1.0
2022/23: 12 (as of today)
8/12: -1.1
9/12: -0.8
10/12: -0.5
11/12: -1.4
12/12: -1.9
13/12: -2.3
14/12: -2.5
15/12: -4.4
16/12: -2.6
17/12: -1.3
17/1: -1.4
18/1: -0.2-
1
-
2
-
-
On 18/01/2023 at 12:22, Relativistic said:
-1.5°C mean yesterday.
Min was a chilly -5.9°C.
A second subzero mean: -0.2°C yesterday.
Min was cold again at -5.5°C.
I noticed that the figures for the 17th have been adjusted to a mean of -1.4°C and a min of -5.7°C, so perhaps yesterday's figures are still subject to change.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:
It would be interesting to study stratospheric warmings without reversals. Perhaps a warming with a reversal is even better on the ground.
There are many cold spells in the past 40 years that happened without a preceding, technical SSW.
Some serious, some more modest.- Winter of 1986
- January 1987 (SSW happened after the famous cold spell)
- February 1991, as you mentioned with strat. warming, but no tech. SSW.
- February 1994
- Winter of 1996
- Late Dec 1996/early January 1997
- December 2008/January 2009 (SSW happened late January)
- January 2010
- December 2010
- February 2012 (the one when the UK just missed out)
- January 2017
- December 2017
- December 2022...
Not true, I remember that period very fondly.
CET values:
2012-01-29 1.3
2012-01-30 1.3
2012-01-31 -0.1
2012-02-01 0.6
2012-02-02 -1.2
2012-02-03 -2.2
2012-02-04 -2.8
2012-02-05 -0.2
2012-02-06 2.3
2012-02-07 1.0
2012-02-08 -2.3
2012-02-09 -1.1
2012-02-10 -0.6
2012-02-11 -2.7
2012-02-12 -0.2Mean CET of -0.5C over a 15-day period.
-
2
-
2
-
-
At the other end of the spectrum, the Isle of Man did pretty well last night
-
1
-
-
-1.5°C mean yesterday.
Min was a chilly -5.9°C.
-
3
-
-
2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:
I never trust the two week output.
As should nobody.
-
5
-
-
Possibly a subzero mean today.
-
On 01/01/2023 at 13:02, reef said:
It looks like 2022 finished on 11.1C on the CET, so we have a new warmest year on record.
Its a bit alarming that it's in a La Nina year though. I wonder where we could be in a strong El Nino year?
For all the talk of keeping warming below 1.5C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900), that's 1.9C above! Its 1.6C above the 1991-1990 period aswell.
The UK seems to be warming faster than the global average.
I suppose the average position of the jet stream is (or was) right over us; any slight shifts north will therefore affect us disproportionately.
-
1
-
-
On 25/12/2022 at 16:26, Sunny76 said:
Yes 1987/88 was a changing point in snowfall especially for London and southern regions of England. But, there were a number of snowless winters in the 1970s.
87/88 at the time was a shock, because almost every year since 1977, there were frequent snowfalls even in the south.
Sounds like a more-protracted version of my experience as a teenager. I missed the snow in April 2008 as I was abroad, but every year from 2009 to 2013 featured excellent snowfalls. Then 2013/14 came as a massive shock.. especially after 2012/13 spoilt us with five notable snow events (early December, mid-January, early February, early March, late March). I was 17 when 2013/14 rolled around and all I had known through my years at secondary school was winter = snow. I was gutted.
-
I started taking note of the weather in 2010. Of every year since then, it has to be 2018 -- not only because of the weather but also because of how life events tied in with it.
I have next to zero memory of January and February (bar the final few days of that period). Early March was stonkingly cold and snowy back in my then Birmingham. Think we topped out at around -4°C on the 1st, which is almost unthinkable in March. Later that month we had another excellent snow event which coincided with a drunken ball night. I won't ever forget stumbling home with a mate in full black tie at God knows what time. It was pristinely quiet and beautiful, or it would've been had it not been for the two of us laughing our arses off every time we ended up face first in the snow.
April featured that phenomenal early heat which I also have fond memories of. It was made all the more strange by the fact that the trees were completely bare after the bone-chilling weather in March.
May was another month that goes down in my memory because it was the only time in my life that I witnessed flash flooding. Two hours of non-stop heavy rainfall meant that roads were underwater and the Bourne brook near my house had turned from a calm trickle to a raging, roaring torrent. My eyes and ears simply weren't prepared for that. The sheer noise and ferocity of the thing was completely unforgettable. Otherwise, May on the whole was extremely sunny -- perfectly timed for my Master's-year exam period, which I spent almost all of inside.
My exams were over by early June and I had a glorious month of partying, barbequing, and summery weather to enjoy. The remainder of the summer was bone dry and searingly hot in Essex, where I spent most of my time. The grass in the local park was brown and dessicated for weeks and weeks. It's not uncommon for browning in the summer down in Essex, but that was on an incomparable level of severity and protraction to anything I've ever witnessed before.
My memory becomes hazy thereafter. I moved to Edinburgh in September to begin my PhD and the remainder of the year is a blur because I spent half of it drunk
-
1
-
-
45 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
We are getting the gfs 12z and 00z with weak secondary warmings and the 18z and 06z stronger
It’s clear that social media just provides morons with a voice …..
Isn't Netweather a form of social media?
-
5
-
1
-
-
Re the English low, see Aleman's post a couple of pages back:
England possibly got a -15C out of this.
-
Anyone know the minima for each UK country? Also, how did Ireland do?
-
9 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Well we actually managed another sub zero mean day yesterday (-1.3C).
That makes it then 10th on the trot now for this spell.
-1.1C, -0.8C, -0.5C, -1.4C, -1.9C, -2.3C, -2.5C, -4.4C, -2.6C and today -1.3C. 10 days average is -2.08C.
This makes it one of the most impressively cold spells for the length of cold achieved, in the last 150 years. (More details to follow)
The mean value recorded today (-1.3C) comprised of a minimum of -6.6C and a maximum for yesterday of +4.0C.
MIA
Agree, some are really underselling this cold spell. I love snow but as long as it feels and looks Arctic outside I'm happy. I've seen some of the thickest frosts of my life during this spell; it's been nothing but beautiful.
Ten consecutive subzero means is somewhat rare, especially this early in the season.
-
6
-
-
On 12/12/2022 at 13:31, Relativistic said:
Four consecutive subzero means now (-1.1, -0.8, -0.5, -1.5). Could potentially get another six, thus giving a healthy run of ten days.
We've done it -- ten consecutive subzero means!
-
On 16/12/2022 at 09:20, Weather-history said:
Looking at the list just for those periods that were wholly or mostly before 17th December
26th Nov - 4th Dec 2010: -1.9
8th-14th Dec 1981: -3.51
27th Nov-1st Dec 1978: -0.6
2nd-6th Dec 1962: -1.08
12th-16th Dec 1920: -1.66
23rd-27th Nov 1904: -1.96
4th-8th Dec 1902: -1.9
9th-26th Dec 1890: -2.1430th Nov-8th Dec 1879: -3.37
8th-17th Dec 1878: -2.95
14th-18th Dec 1874: -4.513th-19th Dec 1859: -4.89
11th-16th Dec 1846: -2.63
5th-14th Dec 1844: -2.68
8th-14th Dec 1819: -2.94
12th-16th Dec 1812: -1.46
5th-10th Dec 1803: -1.72
12th-20th Dec 1801: -2.28
30th Nov-11th Dec 1796: -1.78
12th-20th Dec 1788: -2.49
Impressive when considered in this context.
Not the best comparison to make, but another interesting statistic is the fact that this December's current mean minimum would place it fifth in the rankings. This, of course, won't last.
-
2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
Though once you get late in the season it is undeniably true that the sun is stronger and the days longer, which tends to melt the snow much more rapidly. I think snow really needs to occur before about mid-February to have a good chance of lasting,
This is only true if the sun's shining. We had lying snow for around a week in Essex after the equinox in 2013.
On a separate note, I find myself laughing hysterically at the first 'winter is over' posts already appearing. And some posters seem absolutely certain that it'll be extremely mild till early January... over two weeks away.
-
3
-
-
1 hour ago, Aleman said:
There was a -10.4C near Chelmsford so its possible some in the Southeast only had their coldest night last night. We only just missed it here.
Meanwhile rivers that have frozen are still freezing up further:
Watch incredible footage of the frozen River Mawddach | cambrian-news.co.uk
WWW.CAMBRIAN-NEWS.CO.UKhttps://www.itv.com/news/wales/2022-12-16/plummeting-temperatures-sees-rivers-and-lakes-freeze-over
I arrived in Chelmsford last night and the conditions were treacherous on the roads to the north, freezing fog everywhere and extremely cold as you mentioned.
February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Relativistic
This is an extremely bold statement. How an Earth can you say this when even leading climatologists aren't certain?
Edit: I see I'm not the only one to rebuke this claim lol