Relativistic
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Posts posted by Relativistic
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3 hours ago, Cymro said:
Tir Abad, Cymru got down to - 9.7 last night. Could be close to that again overnight.
Know what the Welsh low is for the season?
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26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
8.2c to the 5th
4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 averageI'm only seeing data for the 1st and 2nd which would explain why it's been stuck on 8.2°C.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2024.txt
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3 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:
Because there are too many people on there that have learned absolutely nothing from years and years of weather watching. I can only assume they are either very young with not enough experience of disappointment, or have some very deep denial about climate change. I have been watching the weather for over 20 years and I have seen literally hundreds of FI, extended rage winter wonderland promises come to absolutely nothing. Watching people who presumably, might have been doing the same, STILL get wide eyed and gasp with with joy at what the extended range runs are showing like children in an advert for Disneyland is just extraordinary. Its beyond me why people bother to even look at it. "Oh but the trend is your friend!"
Christ. Pretty toxic friend. Who needs enemies?
The incredible mental gymnastics people do to avoid confronting the reality that we have a s**t climate, AGW is making it 10x worse and that is now on a runaway course into the abyss with no way of stopping it. I assume the negativity comes from the fact that there are people with 20 years and more experience of weather watching who are still looking at the snowmageddon - raging easterly - projected in the 384 range of GFS charts posting "how exciting! I can't wait to curl up by little homebase installed wood burner and sip cocoa by the fire, while the Christmas-card-pretty snow scene outside makes me feel all snuggly and cosy and ... oh.... those charts aren't there this morning... I .. I ...don't understand...where did they go?"
OH MY GODI agree with you, believe me. I think the MOD thread is laughable at times and that people make the same mistakes over and over is very stupid, frankly.
The difference is, though, that this time there's 20 years or more of teleconnective science which is pointing towards something. This isn't just the usual 'there's something showing at day 12 despite the fact that most large-scale drivers aren't indicative of such', and to completely dismiss the current situation is to ignore the incredibly hard work of some of the world's most knowledgeable and respected meteorologists.
I'm not saying a cold spell is nailed on, but I think the current negativity from a few is unwarranted and too hasty a dismissal of the current known science.
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Some people on the MOD thread are so effing negative.
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2 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:
Not much to say here, I feel like most of us expected significant downgrades. It's almost a fact of life for forecasting.
Significant downgrades? Pretty sure it was only showing for a day or so.
The tropospheric drivers seem to be aligning nicely. Do we even need an SSW at this point? No SSW now could even work in our favour if it means an SSW happens a little further down the line; might lead to an extension of cold weather in the medium term should the troposphere deliver.
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Why are we talking about wine on a winter discussion thread?
Models are currently flirting with the idea of a UK high. I could definitely do with some cold frosty weather at the moment.
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51 minutes ago, Big Gally said:
What I’m struggling with is the met have for a number of weeks said this pattern will change mid January. It’s the 28th December. If anything we won’t see a change until around 2 weeks away.
My thoughts exactly. Surely we'll need at least another week before anything becomes remotely clear on the model outputs. I've been skimming the thread these last few days and I was under the impression that what was showing at day 10 was always a tropospheric-led bonus?
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The definition of an SSW is somewhat arbitrary. Just because we might not get a technical reversal doesn't mean there won't be impacts that downwell.
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10 minutes ago, JeffC said:
March 2013 was amazing for continuous cold, 21-22nd my area had 24" of level snow, then the wind got up, creating considerable drifts. It stayed very cold throughout. April 1st was even an ice day....
That was a result of a January SSW if I recall correctly.
Agree re March 2013. Over a week of lying snow post-solstice in Essex. Snow showers and frosts into early April.
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I started paying attention to the weather in 2009 and have spent some fraction of each Decembers since in Essex. Despite having witnessed notable cold and snowfalls in the lead-up to Christmas in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2017, and 2022, I've never seen a Christmas with proper snowcover. We had some remaining icy slush in 2009 and 2010, and a return to mild weather in 2012, 2017, and 2022. Would be interested to hear from older members when the last proper white Christmas around here was. One day..
As for the period in question, I recall some good frosty/icy spells in 2014, 2020, and perhaps a couple of others.
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1 minute ago, Don said:
I've been thinking (and I'm sure others have too) that had this winter occurred 20 or 30 years ago, it would likely have been a straight forward cold season, with the pesky Iberian heights being less of an issue?
You would think so. The Hadley cell's got to be bigger than it was 30 years ago.
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It amazes me how reliably the lead-up to Christmas is mild, wet, and windy these days. The first half of December almost always seems to be colder than the second half (I haven't verified this so please prove me wrong if this is false).
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-0.5°C yesterday -- season's first subzero mean
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Value for yesterday was 0.3°C, so almost a subzero mean. Perhaps we'll achieve the season's first today.
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-7.1C in Shap as of 11pm
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Just now, Chasbrown said:
Can people remember the biggest cold fail in the models ie when an expected cold spell failed to materialise?
December 2012
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2 hours ago, Methuselah said:
The Sambuca I've been drinking this afternoon, in preparation for the Chelsea game!
The sambuca was a good call
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50 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:
Very true, that one was a significant event in the SE, at least in the context of the present day. I was lucky enough to be in Kent where we managed to get some lake effect snowfall from the cold, dry air. The last time we had that snowcover was BFTE 2018. However, in the past, hot summers often came accompanied with cold winters, and 2022 certainly had been a very hot and dry summer. Overall the cold event was nowhere near the magnitude of the hot event of that year, and didn't even look Feb 2012 or December 2010 in the eye, let alone the classics of the 80s and before. We are at a high latitude - A cold pattern will mean cold weather. However, it seems that it is very quickly becoming very hard to have a prolonged cold spell at our latitude in Europe. We recorded the coldest temperature in London since 2010 last winter - Big deal, Gatwick regularly recorded <-5C in winter before the 90s. The winters of the turn of the decade were indeed significant, but they didn't look all-time classics in the eye - Had they occurred before 1980, they would've been some of the coldest, if not outright coldest winters on record. Obviously you will still get the occasional decent winter, but it's becoming a lot rarer, very quickly.
I think you're understating December 2022 a little. Ten consecutive subzero daily CET means is quite rare; easily outdid 2012.
See this thread for historical comparisons:
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50 minutes ago, Ricardo23 said:
This is essentially just the 'warm September means a mild winter' idea being peddled again.
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Should get a decent run of single-figure means from Saturday onwards.
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33 minutes ago, reef said:
The trend has been gradually upwards. Each new 30 year average has shown an increase on the last. Exeter airport for example, had an annual average of 1468 hours on the 1961-1990 average, 1482 hours on 1971-2000, 1513 hours on 1981-2010 and now 1561 hours on the 1991-2020 mean. The 2001-2030 will most likely show another increase.
There's always years where some areas are dull and others not, but we haven't actually had a nationwide dull year since 2012 now. 2022 was widely the sunniest on record in some places too.
This goes against my intuition. I would've expected the opposite trend.
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2 hours ago, B87 said:
Christmas Day is usually cold and sunny.
I spend my Christmas Days in Essex and it almost always seems cloudy. Often mild as well.
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23 hours ago, Relativistic said:
So looks like 33.2°C at Kew Gardens was the hottest day of the year so far.
Haven't seen anything higher than this quoted by the MO.
Model banter and emotions
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yep. Everything on Earth and in its atmosphere is just some ultra-complex looping circuit of nonequilibrium currents, in which any subcircuit drives, and is driven by, its environment.
So 'driver' is a very broad term indeed