Relativistic
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Posts posted by Relativistic
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2 hours ago, al78 said:
It says something about the quirkiness of this spring that the only place that has recorded 20C so far is in the north of Scotland. How frequently do we get to the end of April with the highest temperature recorded in the Scottish highlands?
Just looked at the Horsham forecast on the Met Office website. After a nice sunny day tomorrow sunshine rationing in progress until at least the weekend, and even then only the occasional sunny interval. What a waste of a post 8pm sunset if we are going to get continuous heavy overcast, it will make it feel like twilight around 6pm.
As damianslaw's pointed out, this is due to the Foehn effect. It's not as uncommon as you might think for the highlands to record some of the warmest/hottest temperatures in Spring (often Winter too). Many date records for high temperatures in the first half of the calendar year were set at Scottish stations.
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Had some unexpected haar this morning but I think we're in the clear now.
27 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:This April hasn’t been that good. It’s been bloody cold.
People forget that April's in the colder half of the year. How often is April truly warm?
6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:My tree, and next doors plus all the ones down the street are only just starting to get leaves now lol, everything's already green by you tree wise it looks like.
Same situation here. The leaves are just starting to come out. The hardy gorse has been flowering for a while now -- even saw some flowering in late January, though I suspect that was due to an abundance of sunshine (70% above average).
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Christ, imagine May 1996 four years in a row...
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17 minutes ago, SunSean said:
Updated map of the UK! As I mentioned, the former south east is now the cloudiest place in the UK. Places in the southern quarter of UK like Scotland etc, with plenty of sunshine as you'd expect!
It's been glorious here the last couple of days, with today and tomorrow set to be the same.
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Concerning.
Norwegian seafloor holds clue to Antarctic melting
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65192825-
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On 02/04/2023 at 10:39, Earthshine said:
Wow, thought I seriously overestimated the CET considered the hype at the start of the month. The weighting towards warmer is just so strong these days that despite a SSW we can't even manage below the 1961-1990 average.
An SSW just five years ago led to one of the most extreme (albeit short) March spells on the CET record and a comfortably below-average month overall.
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16 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:
You obviously have no recollection of BFTP (Fred)?...he comes out with forecasts largely of the cold to very cold variety on the MOD thread and elsewhere and not just on this thread and has been doing so for years, lets say he is to forecasting cold weather what Berni Inn is to fine dining
He does seem to not take it to heart so good on him but like a broken watch he'll get a forecast right sooner or later.
Well it's best not to assume.
He's received a lot of ridicule in the past few weeks; seems like some get a kick out of mocking him. He does make himself a target but repeated mocking is in poor taste IMO.
Edit: labouring the point.
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13 hours ago, hillbilly said:
-15.2 deg Kimbrace 8th March
Braemar dipped to -17.3C in December.
As for England, somewhere in Gloucestershire dipped to -15C in December.
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7 hours ago, kold weather said:
Because Its also a way of tracking background warming. The use of 61-90 is arbitrary of course, its just the met office clearly like that to help measure warming of the CET zone.
For example we are nearing the point where a near 1c below current average month is still above the 61-90 average. Strongly highlights that warming.
I'm personally going to keep referencing that mean in a warming world as it just helps to really highlight how hot we are getting versus the past.
It really wouldn't be that difficult for the Met Office to add a second anomaly column for a modern average whilst retaining the 1961-90 anomalies (I imagine this would take a matter of minutes to implement).
Both averages are useful for different reasons. Why not quote both? We've been doing it here for a few years now.
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I witnessed snow falling in Edinburgh early on the 6th May 2021. Whilst it didn't settle, election coverage the same day showed lying snow in some highland constituencies.
Snow settled in the Lickey hills (a few miles from my Brum residence at the time) back in late April 2016, so that's about the closest I've come to seeing lying snow in May.
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12 hours ago, Daniel* said:
Yes Altnaharra, N Scotland. To 16th
mean max 3.7C
mean min -5.2C!
Surely that's close to the running record? Very impressive either way.
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13 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
!990 was 37C... But, back then, 35C+ wasn't an annual event: the very idea of seeing 37C exceeded in five successive summers would have been virtually unthinkable, with 32C once every 2 or 3 years being the norm.
What's concerning is how rapidly things have changed. It's noticeable to me and I was born in 1996.
In Summer 2011 we had just one day that breached 30°C IIRC. It was a notable event at the time, and that was down in the sunny south-east!
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No lying snow here but I recorded this on Wednesday evening. As the snow comes over the seat it sinks, but you can see the topography actually forces it upwards again as it approaches the craig edge. It then falls towards the city. This made for awesome viewing in combination with that sunset!
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40 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Yes some places had a decent fall of snow in December(?) but overall I'd call this the NORTHERN WINTER! For most in the Southern aspect it's been terrible, the cold air really didn't dig far and hard enough south
Over a week of lying snow and a couple of minima approaching -10°C in Essex during December. Some parts of the south have done well this winter (in between the mild!).
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Not surprised to see Altnaharra so low; when I checked early this afternoon it was still below -10°C.
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Lowest official minimum was -15.4C, Kinbrace. Coldest March night since 2010.
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28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Don't really agree with much of this. For a start, snow during March has become rarer in the last 30 years and yes it depend on your location but the last time I saw appreciable March snow here was in 2018. March 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 were completely snowless and March 2022 was down to a few flakes at the end of the month. Going further back, March 2011, 2012 and 2014 were snowless and I don't recall snow during March 2009 nor 2010 as well.
So trying to get falling snow during March in the first place let alone how long it lies has been a problem.
As for March being more resilient to the effects of climate change, the common starting point people give is with 1987-88 and March since then has rarely been that cold. There have been 55 Marches with a CET of 7.0 or greater and 20 of them have occurred since 1988
I tend to agree with you, this wasn't the most coherent post at 3 in the morning.
More to say that it seems to be easier for March to maintain it's ability to throw truly cold weather at us. The point is that since 1987, we've still had a 'peppering' of wintry Marches; 1987 itself of course, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, and 2018. Can you say the same for January and February?
The point I raised re SSWs might hold some weight, I feel. The mid-latitude cell's coverage continues to push northwards, but an SSW, more likely to affect surface conditions later on in the season, is able to counter that somewhat. And in years where events in the stratosphere have no influence, we get a charcteristically warm modern March (2012, 2017, etc.).
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This unusual obsession with March not being a month that can sustain lying snowfall is somewhat bewildering. When was March ever not a cold month by default? History tells us that; I'd estimate a dozen or more Marches since 1900 have sustained lying snowfall in the south for several days -- possibly even a dozen after mid-month.
It's worth considering that perhaps March is somewhat more resilient to the effects of climate change, for whatever reason. I'd initially speculate this could be because we now more frequently rely on SSWs to give us shots at prolonged periods of cold weather, and since the downwelling effects can take several weeks, we're most likely to see the tropospheric consequences later on in the season? (To be completely clear, it's not that March is becoming increasingly more cold; it's that climate change could he affecting January and February disproportionately.)
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10 hours ago, Mike Poole said:
I guess there’s some IMBYism there. I know March 2013 was epic further north, but down south we had some snow, yes, but it melted very quickly! January was far more memorable here!
I think we can agree that the effects of a SSW may continue to manifest for some time, but to invoke 2013 as evidence the first manifestation may take 2 months is pushing it, in my opinion. Anyway, let’s return to the here and now…
Not in Essex. Stuck around for nearly a week. See my earlier post.
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2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:
For me the difference between first few days of March and mid month are huge! Perhaps because our National holiday falls on 17th I have decades of memories of this day and not one of them was noteworthy of disruptive or even lying snow. Snow in mid March will melt in 10mins no matter how cold the uppers are
Re 2018, a special event that coincided with 26th Feb to 2nd March. Copious snow that year that in my view would not have layed in mid March!
I still feel things will nudge forward over the next few days & it needs to. We have one bite at this, and whether the vortex recovers or not is irrelevant, Spring will take hold mid month onwards
Had nearly a week of lying snow after the solstice in March 2013 down in Essex.
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I would put 2012 in the 'very good' category (at least where I was at the time). Barely above freezing for the first two weeks, with a decent snowfall that stuck around for a week and one or two nights that dropped below -10*C. Then a complete flip to Spring-like warmth for the remainder of the month: sunshine and temperatures up to 15*C on some days. This set the precedent for the infamous March that followed.
A very interesting month overall.
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I'd love a really cold March personally. There's something fascinating about snow lying comfortably for days when it's still light till much later. March 2013 was excellent in that respect.
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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Look like this SSW is nothing like the 2018 SSW as nothing remotely cold is showing in the output in contrast to 2018.
Pathetic winter.
It must've been said about a thousand times now that tropospheric impacts won't yet be seen in the output. Patience is a virtue.
As for this winter being 'pathetic', we're on a comparable number of subzero CET daily means to 2009/10, and the December spell was only the eighth time in the last half-century that we achieved 10 or more consecutive subzero daily means. If you're a cold fan, you can't be displeased with that. Granted, there have been better winters for snow.
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1 hour ago, kold weather said:
...
EDIT - as for severe cold from one of your previous posts, you do realise that for example the 23rd January was the 4th coldest night at Heathrow since 1963. Or that the 15th December was the 17th coldest day since the end of the 62-63 winter... both of those are fairly severe levels of cold. I do however get what you are saying, in a warming world it is going to get increasingly difficult to get cold months, because even short lived mild spells tend to pack a punch these days, as we saw back in late December/early January.
Very interesting statistic; not one I was aware of. You able to provide the top 20?
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First 20 and 25 degrees temps - Spring 2023
in Spring Weather Discussion
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Interesting. Know what the date was in 1986? Surprised 2013 had managed it by now, though I recall some warmer weather in mid-April.