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Convective

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Everything posted by Convective

  1. Convective
    Very, very sultry here now. Clothes starting to stick just sat outside. Extremely heavy skies but no precipitation nearby. Apparently I'm due another storm around 7pm, but we shall see. Lightning detector starting to go mental just west of Paris http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en
  2. Convective
    It's okay. I've fixed it. Notice the high quality, realistic graphics used. Interesting that the GFS weather overview still doesn't have thunderstorms over the UK for tomorrow. It has been like that for the last few consecutive runs.. Strange but undoubtedly hard to believe.
  3. Convective
    Not this again... it is evident that the Met Office h.a.t.e the Isle of Man.....
  4. Convective
    Two big flashes of lovely silvery lightning and booming thunder! EDIT: 5th flash and rumble! And the heavens have opened Looks like it's here for a while
  5. Convective
    Was hoping for a little more excitement up here but I feared that the storms would be drained of energy on their way here, and they are Nothing forecast until tomorrow if nothing comes from this rain. Actually a chilly breeze out there for me, not warm or muggy at all hereSpoke too soon! Loud bang of thunder I'm sure I've just heard. Sounded like a positive clap carried along on the strong wind. Didn't rumble for long, more a powerful sharp bang that lasted 3 or so seconds! Interesting!
  6. Convective
    Bed time with an alarm set for 7am, night folks, good luck to everyone overnight!
  7. Convective
    Watching all them crawlers and CGs on the Cowes webcam, whilst watching the live lightning detector is making my heart race. This is it now, the initial plume beginning to fully destabilise and swing into action. Have fun everyone but primarily, please take care! Just watching these storms now is actually scary, and its only 1am... Please, please take extra care everybody!
  8. Convective
    Waheeeey, that'll do nicely. Round 2 of stealing everybody's lightning, just like last month?
  9. Convective
    Getting gusty under the storms!
  10. Convective
  11. Convective
    Dear God! I knew I should have started swimming for safety this evening whilst the sea was calm! I don't really know what to expect EDIT: Beautiful paragraphs from Estofex as mentioned below by Sean19 Western Europe A well-developed short-wave trough travels across the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles. Ahead of this trough, a plume of well mixed and very warm air originating from the Atlas mountains will spread northward, reaching the southern British Isles late in the period. At lower levels, moisture will increase in the warm air advection regime from northern France to the southern British Isles. This will result in increasing instability with MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg over northern France. Moisture will be weaker over southern France what results in smaller CAPE and a quite strong capping inversion. Due to strongest large scale lift ahead of the approaching trough and near a cold front that enters the area from the west, storms are forecast across the central Bay of Biscay during the day that will spread northward in the afternoon and evening. Due to strong vertical wind shear below a low-level jet ahead of the cold front, storms will merge to a broad MCS that moves into the southern British Isles during the evening and night hours. The main threat will be severe winds along the leading gust front. Large or even very large hail is forecast especially with more discrete cells over France, but is also not ruled out with the MCS that enters the British Isles. Excessive rain is not too likely as the system moves northward quickly. Moreover, tornadoes may be possible given the strong low-level vertical wind shear. The main limiting factor is the weak buoyancy of the boundary layer over the British Isles.
  12. Convective
    I urge anyone who takes their bike to work in London to take caution over the next few days...
  13. Convective
    I think this whole event is being over-thought... as is always the case with a plume event, a thunderstorm could break out just about anywhere. BBC don't want to go any further than Thursday daytime with their national forecast which shows their level of uncertainty
  14. Convective
    I'd like to bank this please...
  15. Convective
    Thursday into Friday looks pretty good so far for another dose of elevated thunderstorms breaking out as a mass of energy floods in from the south. BBC already going with "fierce thunderstorms". Could be some monsters developing through the early hours of Friday that will move northwards throughout the day before more uncertainty on Saturday and Sunday. Although everything looks stunning at the moment its still a fragile situation and nothing, at this range, should be taken as a final answer on what will happen. An eastward shift on the current synoptics could give a covering of CAPE values up and above 2000j/kg, which combined with forecast temperatures of anything up to 30°C could produce some incredible displays.
  16. Convective
    No, they took my cat and left without even a single rumble of thunder.........
  17. Convective
    Must admit I didn't even notice it until it landed in next door's garden
  18. Convective
    Sky looks ready to go bang any minute! Just thrown it down about 5 minutes ago.
  19. Convective
    Had a downpour about an hour ago. Lasted no more than 30 seconds, now heavy fog.
  20. Convective
    I'm looking at tomorrow with a slight bit of interest. As these fronts push through we introduce some fairly good instability and energy across much of the western side of the country, perhaps introducing the risk of some convective pulses amongst the mostly dynamic rainfall. Maybe the odd storm mixed in. Other than that, the eastern side could fair well tomorrow with the sun breaking through to set off a few heavy showers, and the odd heavy thunderstorm which could last quite late into the night before being shoved into the North Sea with the frontal rain hot on their heels. EDIT: Estofex also keen on the same area previously discussed. I can see moonlit ACCAS actually! Didn't know there was any instability there just yet....
  21. Convective
    Flying out of Liverpool to Larnaca at 1:45pm today. Some suggestions of a few sharp showers. Maybe some convection on the way out. Not much over Europe though.
  22. Convective
    No convection here all day until about 10 minutes ago when it erupted just west of me. It's filled the sky now with a milky, unstable looking grey colour. Also a layer of mist forming now too. Don't think it will materialise into anything though. Sky getting heavier. All you can here is the trees gently rustling in the sporadic breeze.
  23. Convective
    Me too. Couldn't miss it! I remember reading a very good article on the website for G-PSST, about how the paint work was decided on. It's definitely worth a read http://www.heritageaviation.com/index.php/info/the-colour-scheme/ I saw a flyer in a magazine not so long ago advertising Waddo 2014 Airshow. Couldn't decide whether to go to that or Farnborough to see some larger, commercial aircraft
  24. Convective
    I too see what William is on about. However, the conditions you are describing is the perfect explanation of what its like here 2/3 of the year. But, I quote from www.weather-climate.org.uk "There are three main ways by which uplift of air can occur: convection, front and orographic (mountain) uplift. In each case, the rising air is forced to cool by expansion, releasing condensation first as cloud, and if uplift and cooling continues, as rain, hail or snow." So technically this means that the conditions we are thinking of aren't actually convective. It's interesting though, the boundaries of each piece of meteorological terminology. I'm going to stop now before this post goes so far off topic that I'm talking about how to cook..
  25. Convective
    Just listening to the live lightning detector says it all. http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en. Assuming that is only picking up a handful of strikes too as many will be intra cloud given the elevated nature wont they?
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