Convective

Definitely isn't anaprop. It's a line of storms developing. The anaprop is south of the circled area, out in the channel

Definitely an area to watch

First cell over land now, southwest of London.

I'm going to say that precipitation between Jersey and Alderney is one to watch. Looks ripe to explode into life.. That cell just off the Brest peninsula is doing well. 31 sferics recorded in the last 10 minutes.

And there we have it, first couple of sferics detected just southwest of Jersey! Here we go!

Through till 0600

As I mentioned last night, signs still there for potential plume events later next week. Low pressure gaining control of Iberia by the looks of current model trends, providing many opportunities to fire up the thundery moisture needed for some 'proper' plumes!

Charts suggest that its certainly not out the question. As the 18Z rolls out too, it has shown consistently for the last few runs that anywhere as far north as Newcastle definitely has a shot at thunderstorms overnight.

I think anywhere as far north as Newcastle is in with a shot overnight.

And another. Shouldn't be getting excited but with skies like this it's hard not to! Cloud moving through really quick. Can see it convecting upwards too.

What's wonderful about Spanish Plumes? Anything can happen anywhere! Deep mid level convection here and I am under nothing on charts. This was taken 25 minutes ago. It's fairly scattered in nature but clouds are growing massive!

Preliminary views on this evening. Will have a look later this evening as to what's expected midnight onwards. As ever, pattern shifts can still occur and of course its a plume so something could show up almost anywhere.

Aside from this week's potential action, a couple of members are modelling lower pressure west of Spain next week which could, in time, lead to a nice set up. Miles out yet but still something to occupy the mind...

Maybe someone can help me. I only have an Extra Lite subscription at the moment, however now that there is more going on I'd like to upgrade to Extra Full so that I can view even more charts, such as the high resolution MLCAPE charts. Is there any way I can do this or do I have to wait until my current subscription expires? Its all getting exciting again!

12Z looking nice. Plume appears to be wider and allows scope for more westerly coverage if it progresses north quicker. Even though the charts show a defined boundary between stable and unstable air masses, I refuse to take much notice. We've had scenarios like this where the boundary looks set in stone yet storms have broken out either side.

The extra £350 to get off the island, then the risk of cancellation from easyJet or Flybe I'd do it if I lived away though!

What completely depressing charts today. Gone from good to bad to good to bad once again.. Could we perhaps get one last shift to good before Friday please?

12Z not looking too bad at all. Nice feed pumping up during Friday.

Looking through the model discussion it is evident that only the GFS is emphasizing the eastward shift as much as it is. Other models, including MetO, show the plume advecting northwards over more western parts too. All still to play for, and its really only this morning's 06Z run which has truly dampened spirits.

The best charts I've ever seen on both the 12Z and 18Z GFS. Bank!!!

Admittedly this is an incredibly dire start to a 'storm' season. Such a dramatic contrast to last year, and even that wasn't the best year by a long shot. Quite often I'm optimistic about these kind of outlooks, in the hope of change, but this time round it feels like it could be one of them typically terrible summers. Usually by now we would have had a week, or two, of nice summery weather, but the most we've managed this year is one and a half consecutive days. Lets keep fingers crossed for a massive flip to more promising set-ups with plumes galore and thunderstorms that go on well into the night with crawler lightning every couple of seconds.

I'll have a go... Not a hard one to cover though so almost anywhere could get something:

Good skies about now!

GFS modelling widespread thundery activity on Tuesday

It's anaprop (anomalous precipitation), so not true