Convective

Things getting bigger, by the second! From this: To this: In less than 5 minutes!

Developments of the Ac cas from earlier... now starting to tower fully: EDIT: One more... proper towers!

Back to blue skies now, with the earlier cloud moving out north. Temperature up at 27C, nice!

Quite a bit of mid level cloud moving in from the south, here. Mostly stratus with the odd tower amongst it. EDIT: Quickly evolving... the view just now; She's gonna blow!

If you hadn't have posted this, I was going to after watching 'Weather for the Week Ahead'. Absolutely hate it when they label them "thundery showers" - something you get in winter during a heavy sleet shower with the odd rumble of thunder, not potentially severe thunderstorms...

Lovely.

Heavy rain on and off here, with some good rumbles of thunder!

Been sat in the garden for the last two hours, watching distant flashes through the trees. Still around 20 degrees here, although feeling a tiny bit cooler now that there is a slight breeze.

A few models, MetO and GFS inclusive, suggest something breaking out over the North Irish Sea overnight... Do I believe them or not

The Blitzortung server has temporarily crashed, apparently. Probably due to being so surprised that there is a thunderstorm over Merseyside. Looks good enough to me. You only need a little bit of CAPE to support storms, even strong ones. There have been countless events, here, when we've had heavy thunderstorms, with frequent lightning, only held up by around 100J/kg CAPE.

That's quite a core to that storm over Merseyside. Wonder what's falling from it, rain or hail? Either way, there's a lot of it!

06Z GFS following a similar pattern to the 00Z, with the low remaining slightly further west before being pulled away into Iceland

12Z GFS showing more flattening of the low to the west as blocking tries to keep a firm hold. Meanwhile, this pulls more of a vertical axis on the potential 'plume'

ECM, MetO and GFS to an extent, all showing potential for a true 'Spanish Plume' towards the end of next week. Now we need these charts to come into the more reliable timeframe!

A few of the models are flirting with the idea of more substantial plume prospects into the end of the first week of June. GFS and ECM both showing a Biscay-originating feed of humid air as we approach the end of next week. Still a long way out in terms of model watching, but not unrealistically far out...

Storms coming to life in North East France now, maybe the start of wider activity, including some here in the UK Edit: Showers breaking out in Wales now

How does the sky look over there? Slightly hazy with bits of high level cloud appearing and disappearing sums it up here. Central Wales looking like the current hotspot with satellite imagery showing some decent clouds there.

Forecast for today (Sunday) Some models are showing no precipitation for today, others are. Personally, I think something will trigger at some point during the afternoon, and when it does it could potentially be stronger than last night's storms due to higher energy, temperatures, lapse rates and a greater swathe of richer Theta-W air mass covering a larger portion of the country. Unlike today, convection initiation locations won't be as easy to pick out, and instead any convection that does manage to form is likely to be more scattered in nature with just about anywhere in the risk zones able to see something. Like today, however, the North West of England and Northern Wales seem to be best placed when it comes to parameters pulling together to favour storms.

Glad to hear it. The way some people are describing these storms doesn't compare to how they look on the lightning detectors. Hoping they can hold together to give something tonight, even distant so that I can get some photos!

These forecasts aren't exhaustive and will be updated as and when required, but here's my take on tonight's (low) chance, and tomorrow's better chances.

Essentially because that warning is only really covering the more organised rain expected through Wales during tomorrow. Later in the afternoon and into the night period is when the real storms are meant to begin firing, I would imagine these warranting at least a yellow warning, if not amber.

That's the literal meaning of it on my attempt at a forecast. Whether or not the same applies for other forecasts, I'm not sure

Nobody is discounting anything just yet, William! Even this close to the start of the event, its too close to say where will and where won't get storms. A plume cannot be predicted, and even nowcasting is no good. At this stage, people are simply relying on what the charts are showing. When forecasts begin to emerge, we can get a clearer idea, but don't worry, no one is discounting anywhere at this stage

Dewpoints only a few degrees behind the air temperatures both at the surface and also the 850hPa mark as well as humidities around the 80% mark upwards seem rich enough for some decent storms! Precipitable water charts showing some 30+mm over parts during Saturday too, so plenty to fall from the sky.