Convective

Big storm going up southeast of Worcester by the looks of things.

Current TAFs for tomorrow sound very promising: Manchester (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms and hail): 231106Z 2312/2418 09009KT CAVOK PROB30 TEMPO 2318/2412 12015G25KT PROB30 2400/2410 8000 TEMPO 2413/2418 7000 SHRA BKN045 PROB30 TEMPO 2413/2418 3000 +SHRA TSGS BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2415/2418 15015G25KT= Birmingham (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms): 231106Z 2312/2412 08012KT CAVOK TEMPO 2402/2408 9000 PROB30 2403/2408 BKN006 TEMPO 2408/2412 6000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB= Cardiff (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms): 231106Z 2312/2412 07010KT CAVOK BECMG 2315/2318 VRB04KT PROB40 TEMPO 2320/2409 SHRA BKN045CB BECMG 2321/2324 07010KT TEMPO 2409/2412 6000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=

Lots of new TCu cloud showing over West Midlands and through Wales now. I'd imagine something is going to give shortly.

Convective initiation in a couple of places around Central and Southern Wales by the looks of satellite imagery.

First of hopefully many this year. My take on this evening's potential.

Plenty of moonlit altocumulus out there this evening.

Next week it looks like there is a possibility of low pressure developing over northern Iberia, or the Bay of Biscay hence the energy being pushed northwards presenting the risk of some storms. However, it looks as though the energy will follow more of a east-west transition rather than being pushed from south to north. With a bit of luck, that will change over the next few days meaning that the northern half of the country can join in on the potential fun.

There's going to be some high rainfall totals to the east of London by the end of this evening! Hoping for some better convective prospects to appear in the models soon. The weather is great here at the moment, but the one thing that would top it would be to have some more continental energy injected into the mix!

Haha 'April showers'...

Tentative signs of something a little more engaging towards the end of next week across a couple of the models. These being some of the better graphics taken from the 18Z GFS for next Friday. Caution as always..! 07/04/18 GFS Flickr 07/04/18 GFS Flickr 07/04/18 GFS Flickr 07/04/18 GFS Flickr 07/04/18 GFS Flickr 07/04/18 GFS Flickr

Looking at the detectors, there was a decent storm in northwest Ireland recently. The UK map shows 111 sferics in the last hour. Not bad for mid-February! A couple of strikes north of here recently, too. Maybe something to follow overnight as the showers continue to push through.

Two big flashes of silvery lightning and deep thunder in that last shower of penny-sized hail. Nice!

One photo from some lightning quite far away this evening:

BBC forecasts are extremely reluctant to show high resolution graphics for between 1500 Tuesday and 0800 on Wednesday. No forecast all day has shown the rainfall forecast for this period. I think this demonstrates the complexity of the forecasting of the next 36 hours...

Powerful cells breaking out just across the Channel.

Do I go to the east or west coast of the island for photos? Nice stuff moving out of Ireland, to the west, but big towers going up towards the east!?

Great fun watching it develop, especially all around! Looking east: Looking south: Looking west:

If I could have this weather every day through summer, happy would be an understatement. Potential-filled skies like this. Just need something to go off!

Satellite imagery showing a band of ACCAS over the Gloucestershire area. Maybe a good sign as the instability aloft begins to get some use.

Patience today! It's going to go, and it's going to go big.....!

Forecast for tomorrow 1000-1700.

What a great sky to wake to!

Cannot begin to imagine how violent the upper atmosphere must be over the English Channel right now. Not often you see a storm pushing out close to 500 strikes per minute, excluding IC and CC sferics! When all the parameters come together, nature can do amazing things.