Convective
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Posts posted by Convective
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Bearing in mind that the lightning detectors don't pick up IC or CC lightning, that's a fair amount of CG lightning for a cell that size!
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Exciting..!
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I'd say updates and modifications to this are going to be necessary with the situation over the next few days. Anyhow, here's what I'm seeing during this evening and early tomorrow;
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0700-1800 local time tomorrow:
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Things aren't looking particularly great at this stage, following the hype that the charts a few days ago were generating. Of course that was to be expected though. At the moment, it is looking like parts of the country may see a possible breakdown to heavy rain, without much lightning activity.
Hopefully we see a few upgrades in the next couple of days, or at least retain the currently forecast parameters, to at least see some activity somewhere!
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16 minutes ago, NUT said:
It's obviously going to change but this model run on GFS throws absolute stonkers of charts.................if you love storms for next weekend
It's been a while!
Certainly not to be taken at face value, but it is stepping stones towards where we all want to be!
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TAF for Lydd Airport suggests a 30% probability of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
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Will revise tomorrow around noon, but for now:
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First of hopefully many forecasts this year.
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Thundersnow over the Isle of Man around 5 minutes ago.
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Good start to the afternoon with a extremely heavy hailstorm, around 3pm. So heavy that all the cars, including me, had to pull over with the hazard lights on as the marble sized hail made it impossible to see the road in front of you. The noise was unbelievable, too. Didn't take long for the roads to flood, ending up like rivers with the water a few inches deep in places.
This was followed by a very decent evening with thunder and lightning on and off from around 1830. Some very loud, and deep rumbles - a couple of positive strikes, too! Shaking the ground and making the windows rattle and creek.
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Not a lot stopping the convection today. All the way to the ceiling, then flat...
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52 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Lots of sferics out in the Irish Sea. Keeping an eye on the area.
Quite a fierce isolated storm that one! Over 120 sferics recorded in its short life! Just needs to shift a little further north...
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On 14/09/2016 at 12:26, Mapantz said:
@Convective would be in a nice place if it does work out.
Sorry! Only just seen this now. I was in a storm-starved Skiathos on this day, getting envious of the potential back home! Everything seemed to miss here on that day though, despite the odds.
There have been a few flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder here over this evening. Some fairly decent, but activity seems to have died off now. We've also had heavy rain, hail and even graupel and sleet!
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Yet another plume down the pan... Third plume, in the last month, to look incredible at five days notice, then to be downgraded to nothing but mild drab at three days notice..... Infuriatingly boring weather
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Heeeeeeere we go again......!
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Any chance of another plume, mother nature? Thanks in advance...
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My guess is that this showery rain around here is the cold front finally moving through. I suppose that means I can wave bye to this plume! It was relatively good, although still a bit far from here for a true light show. Hopefully something similar in the near future.
Good luck to everyone hoping to catch something later today!
EDIT: Just checked outside, a completely flat sky out there now with a few breaks in the clouds. All stratus and no convection! You wouldn't think it was the same day.
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After four or so hours of continuous thunder, its finally moving out of here. Nothing was particularly close apart from the odd strike (see images), but perhaps something building on its way out of Wales at the moment?
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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I've seen this waaay too many times before - people don't listen to the experts who say 'wait til x o'clock' and then when they go to sleep and miss it they'll wake up tomorrow and blame those very same people for not being accurate.
weve only got to wait an hour and things'll start to kick off...
Its actually incredibly frustrating.. wish people would just go to bed rather than comment on a 'bust' or 'non-event', despite we're still two hours off blast off. Just go to bed and miss the action if that's what you want to do!
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Its 12am, most of it wasn't meant to begin until 3am onwards... don't lose hope
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I can confirm that none of the lightning detectors are picking up even a fraction of sferics. Them two cells that have recently gone up to the north of the island were putting out around 20-30 strikes a minute, all intra-cloud. Don't be fooled by the number of cloud-ground strikes being detected, there's a lot more there! Some absolutely fantastic crawler lightning, too!
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Expecting it to go off just north of here soon, and just south. When it does, it should be big!
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Got a feeling this could be the cloud that delivers the goods:
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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted