Convective
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Posts posted by Convective
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Matt Taylor now adding the "intense" word before talking about the thunderstorms in the latest BBC forecast
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5 minutes ago, Harry said:
Well, same model, but the French version pushes out to 96h.
18z Sat SBCAPE
Sure looks good! Does the WRF provide an MLCAPE chart? I've never found one to be honest...
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8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
North, West Midlands along with parts of Yorkshire seem to be where I am think the best spot will be taking advantage of the more unstable conditioned coupled with the warmth travelling north west from France and SE England.
NMM for Saturday
Isolated storms could develop over parts of south and south east England along with East Anglia/Lincolnshire, especially further inland where the highest temperatures will be.
Things definitely becoming more exciting now that the short range NMM is coming into focus!
I would imagine the 1800 chart for Saturday will be pretty much eye candy if that's only 1400
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12Z GFS output has slightly improved energy values by a couple of hundred J/kg - some places peeking at around the 1300J/kg mark, half decent for May. Shear is favouring western coastal areas with some 400m²/s² DLS along these areas through Saturday evening, coinciding with some of the best energy for this area. Dewpoints fairly good, potential for slight upgrades wouldn't go a miss. All in all, something's going to go off, and its going to go off good!
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7 minutes ago, knocker said:
For your delectation from the 06z for what it's worth
I can't access the MLCAPE at the moment, but they look fairly decent for SBCAPE charts
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10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Ok
just looking at the latest gfs 18z and the risk is still there for next weekend altough it has dropped a bit from the 12z
at the moment,it is saturday that is looking like the best shot for thundery activity with Li values of -3 with some quiet heavy ppn pushing north and the temps arn't too bad either
just need to get closer to the short range models from mid week onwards to see if the potential is still there
so a long way to go yet,but i hope this one comes off
No doubt tomorrow morning's 00Z will pump the power back up again! From past experience, the 18Z GFS has a tendency to downgrade 'plumage potential'
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7 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:
Maybe, but there's a hell of a lot of mid level instability coming in next week!
I can remember many a time when the most violent storms broke out over the northern half of England before moving into Scotland, due to the humid continental air mixing with the cooler temperatures the further north. Either way, plumes can deliver storms just about anywhere so its safe to say I'm quite looking forward to the progression of this potential set-up, even more so now that the majority of models have come into agreeance
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Few more rumbles to finish off the evening, courtesy of this nice cell
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Big hail and thunder here
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More interest in the days to come as the advection of continental-based energy continues to make its way towards Britain. Not too bad with the energy in the next few days, considering we're in early April. More disappointing are the 850 temperatures and dewpoints. Not much in the way of strong winds aloft either so anything that does develop would be likely to be fairly localised although potentially relatively strong as they root into the boundary layer where surface temperatures are more favourable.
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Not pointing fingers at anyone, and certainly not saying anyone is lying, but not all sferics show on the various lightning detectors. Many intra-cloud sferics aren't detected and usually produce visible lightning and audible thunder.
I remember being in Manchester a few years ago when a small storm broke out with lightning every six or seven seconds, all intra-cloud, and not one sferic showing on any of the detectors...
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Nice cumulus testiculous there, Stormyking.
Lightning detected around here. Can't see much outside, very overcast and heavy bursts of rain now and then.
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Absolutely massive convective cloudscapes out the back of here now, towards the hills!
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That storm near Calais really is quite impressive. I've never seen a strike rate like that before!
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A handful of sferics from that cell out to my east but not heard any thunder..
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More importantly, that Biscay storm shows that there is real energy and potential for some big storms. Even if that one doesn't reach the UK, which is likely, there's nothing to stop more firing up near it
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Yes I would like someone to give an update but it seems no one is really about for this sadly. However it doesn't look promising. Very weak storm in the usual Southampton hotspot this anything else is likely to be very isolated. Doesn't express destabilisation at all I'm afraid though. Even the storms in northern France look very weak. End of show I think now.
Don't give up yet! Many models were forecasting the heaviest of the storms and rain to break out from midnight onwards
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Liverpool, you're about to get your very long awaited storm!
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Thunder here!
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NMM also supporting this, although not quite as potent as GFS displays. Plenty of leeway, however.
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Excellent photographs! Very high cloud bases on these storms, making for incredible 'Nevada' style photos.
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Just had a very nice thunderstorm!
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Could do with that rain ahead of the Anglesey storm fading away in order to get some photos of the lightning!
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End of the week & weekend storm risk
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Convective
Essentially, the difference in speed and direction the wind is blowing at the different levels in the atmosphere. The greater the shear, the more likely storms are to become multicellular or tornadic, overall increasing the likelihood of severe storms. Although, many other factors need to be in place such as high dewpoints and decent lapse rates in order to sustain deep convection as the shear blows if off centre.
First potential looking to be tomorrow evening as sustainable storm conditions push out of France and into the south coast. Can't wait to take a closer look and make the first forecast of the year! Very slim risk of an isolated shower over the West Midlands tomorrow afternoon, too.