Convective
-
Posts
916 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Convective
-
-
- Popular Post
Developments of the Ac cas from earlier... now starting to tower fully:
EDIT: One more... proper towers!
-
10
-
Back to blue skies now, with the earlier cloud moving out north. Temperature up at 27C, nice!
-
Quite a bit of mid level cloud moving in from the south, here. Mostly stratus with the odd tower amongst it.
EDIT: Quickly evolving... the view just now;
She's gonna blow!
-
9
-
-
1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Does anyone hate the phrase used by the BBC "thundery showers" when we're seeing such extraodinary ingredients forecast?
If you hadn't have posted this, I was going to after watching 'Weather for the Week Ahead'. Absolutely hate it when they label them "thundery showers" - something you get in winter during a heavy sleet shower with the odd rumble of thunder, not potentially severe thunderstorms...
-
6 hours ago, CreweCold said:
GFS 0z seems to have coloured the Irish Sea in with green crayon.....seriously though, this model run couldn't have placed that precipitation more accurately to cover the Irish Sea and IOM. Almost like the precipitation moulds around the sea/land boundary
Soon after, Scotland cops it
Lovely.
-
1
-
-
Heavy rain on and off here, with some good rumbles of thunder!
-
Been sat in the garden for the last two hours, watching distant flashes through the trees. Still around 20 degrees here, although feeling a tiny bit cooler now that there is a slight breeze.
-
A few models, MetO and GFS inclusive, suggest something breaking out over the North Irish Sea overnight... Do I believe them or not
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
All my blitzortung apps fon't seem to be working!!
The Blitzortung server has temporarily crashed, apparently. Probably due to being so surprised that there is a thunderstorm over Merseyside.
4 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:Slightly confused as this doesn't look that interesting. LOL.
Looks good enough to me. You only need a little bit of CAPE to support storms, even strong ones. There have been countless events, here, when we've had heavy thunderstorms, with frequent lightning, only held up by around 100J/kg CAPE.
-
4
-
-
That's quite a core to that storm over Merseyside. Wonder what's falling from it, rain or hail? Either way, there's a lot of it!
-
2
-
-
06Z GFS following a similar pattern to the 00Z, with the low remaining slightly further west before being pulled away into Iceland
-
1
-
-
12Z GFS showing more flattening of the low to the west as blocking tries to keep a firm hold. Meanwhile, this pulls more of a vertical axis on the potential 'plume'
-
3
-
-
ECM, MetO and GFS to an extent, all showing potential for a true 'Spanish Plume' towards the end of next week. Now we need these charts to come into the more reliable timeframe!
-
3
-
-
A few of the models are flirting with the idea of more substantial plume prospects into the end of the first week of June. GFS and ECM both showing a Biscay-originating feed of humid air as we approach the end of next week. Still a long way out in terms of model watching, but not unrealistically far out...
-
1
-
-
Storms coming to life in North East France now, maybe the start of wider activity, including some here in the UK
Edit: Showers breaking out in Wales now
-
11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Just hit 25°C here now
How does the sky look over there? Slightly hazy with bits of high level cloud appearing and disappearing sums it up here.
Central Wales looking like the current hotspot with satellite imagery showing some decent clouds there.
-
Forecast for today (Sunday)
Some models are showing no precipitation for today, others are. Personally, I think something will trigger at some point during the afternoon, and when it does it could potentially be stronger than last night's storms due to higher energy, temperatures, lapse rates and a greater swathe of richer Theta-W air mass covering a larger portion of the country. Unlike today, convection initiation locations won't be as easy to pick out, and instead any convection that does manage to form is likely to be more scattered in nature with just about anywhere in the risk zones able to see something. Like today, however, the North West of England and Northern Wales seem to be best placed when it comes to parameters pulling together to favour storms.
-
3
-
-
7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Getting closer. 46 miles from that last Blitzortung strike. Interestingly it only seems to be picking up about 10% of all strikes that I can hear on the radio. Must be predominately producing ICs.
Glad to hear it. The way some people are describing these storms doesn't compare to how they look on the lightning detectors. Hoping they can hold together to give something tonight, even distant so that I can get some photos!
-
1
-
-
These forecasts aren't exhaustive and will be updated as and when required, but here's my take on tonight's (low) chance, and tomorrow's better chances.
-
5
-
-
6 minutes ago, Harry said:
Limited use of the T word I notice...
Essentially because that warning is only really covering the more organised rain expected through Wales during tomorrow. Later in the afternoon and into the night period is when the real storms are meant to begin firing, I would imagine these warranting at least a yellow warning, if not amber.
-
1 minute ago, Speedway Slider said:
Can someone clarify lightning within 50km of a point please?
For example, the first chart above has a "technical term" yellow splodge, so if I took a pin and stuck it in anywhere within that yellow splodge, then drew a 50km circle from the centre pin point, including any area within that circle, even if it part of the circle is outside the yellow splodge, there could be lightning?
Sorry if that's a rather complicated description, couldn't think how to shorten it!!!!
That's the literal meaning of it on my attempt at a forecast. Whether or not the same applies for other forecasts, I'm not sure
-
-
1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:
I wish everyone would stop discounting the south west, this happened in 2014 and we got some of the best thunderstorms that Summer... Obviously, you didn't read my status, Tom. I knew it was sarcastic.
Nobody is discounting anything just yet, William!
Even this close to the start of the event, its too close to say where will and where won't get storms. A plume cannot be predicted, and even nowcasting is no good. At this stage, people are simply relying on what the charts are showing. When forecasts begin to emerge, we can get a clearer idea, but don't worry, no one is discounting anywhere at this stage
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:
Home-grown MCS! LOL! That's quite unlikely to happen to say how dry the air will be further north and east. I think you may be in the "no go zone", too far east for anything elevated and too far west for anything surface based, that's just my opinion.
Dewpoints only a few degrees behind the air temperatures both at the surface and also the 850hPa mark as well as humidities around the 80% mark upwards seem rich enough for some decent storms!
Precipitable water charts showing some 30+mm over parts during Saturday too, so plenty to fall from the sky.
-
1
-
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Things getting bigger, by the second!
From this:
To this:
In less than 5 minutes!