Froze were the Days

Don't forget this is the 'interesting' last week of November we see before our eyes on the models...this might be eye candy synoptically compared to the rubbish which might follow after this pattern you have mentioned i.e. raging jet and just a big ol' euro high next?

We were never going to experience anything too cold going into December...they've been generally poor since the epic 2010 and also BFTP (Fred) forecast it to be fairly cold...so

Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or back loaded' (Usually ends up unloaded) - care of General Cluster. 2. November: 'I'd rather get these charts out the way now before winter' (Usually continues in the same vain). 3. December (Xmas period or the run up to): 'Let's see what the New Year brings' (Continues in the same vain if not milder). 4. January mid-month: 'We need to see something sooner in terms of cold rather than later as the sun will begin to strengthen into February' (Desperation starting to creep in). 5. February: 'At least we've still got the chance of our best crack at winter' (i.e. March particularly the 1st half) which has been somewhat more reliable than most January's or February's. 6. March: 'Oh well! I reckon next winter will be the 'one'! (We know it won't be). 7. April: 'For Gods sake why can't we have these synoptics/easterlies in Winter' (Just watch the pattern change, happens most years). Something like that guys and gals...

Mild out there today - 14.9c currently, never seen so many flowers/roses still in bloom.

See you in a few years then...

Think those temps might be a bit on the low side...BBC at lunch today showed 10c for my location which is only normal for the time of year, shows you just how bad things have got!

He hasn't been around for yonks! (not that I've noticed any of his posts). Think he was getting fed up with teleconnections leading us up the garden path and believe a bit tired of chasing the rainbow - I might be wrong.

See the return of the day 10 potential is back on the ecm - and then piff paff poof!!

Have to agree...not sure the way GW is getting a wriggle on we'll have much room for winters like in the late 70's/80's - but still think we can experience 2012/13 type winters (fairly cold). Yes the omens (again) don't look great for this winter at this stage, I'm sure we'll get a surprise just when the chips are down (might be a few years away or maybe a month or so). As so many say the chaos theory can never be taken out of the equation with climate.

Only the March/April 2013 episode...so yes it was for a period 7+ years ago.

Desperation...viewing the latest CFS run, come on folks. I have followed the CFS 9 monthlies for the last 2 winters and always gave a glimmer of hope at times until you got within a couple of weeks or so and then piff paff poof!! on any run.

I'm going to be so far out this month...gambled on a continuation of near or fractionally below 61-90 CET series going by the early to medium range models at the beginning of the month which was a lead up the garden path. Fear for the rest of the winter now we've had a few months near normal, sod's law will probably see ridiculously high anomalies for the winter period.

Sounds like you're backing out of your forecast for a cold spell in December? usually you stick to your guns (one's which fire blanks).

Yes it was the famed winter for following the MetO 30 day (or whatever it was updates which continually had wintryness in the wording)...and in reality only near the end of January did the usually snow starved area of Southern England get some, most other parts only had a brief slushy dusting (if there is such a thing). As for that ensued mild February...I dared mention the word turning mild after viewing day 9/10 on the ECM (against the MetO updates) in late January and got absolutely hounded in the MAD thread as the majority were expecting the opposite.

Correct!...2018/19 glosea was not so accurate - winter 2018/19 was disappointing though some in central southern England did see some snow but considering that a number of seasonal models were predicting northern blocking it was generally a fail.

DWD (German model) was showing this in October - positive heights just to our north west, so a certain possibility - and that could mask some cold shots.

Steady rain here...wouldn't it be good to talk about something else other than rain or how mild it is? I suppose the last couple of days or so have been fairly sunny (here).

This month (looking at the latest 12z and others) looks very reminiscent of December 2015 with the jet dipping south eastwards in the Atlantic only to buckle northwards to our west leaving us in constantly in mild/warm air...as long as we stay dry.

and of the other 4 warmest Novembers in the last 15 years?...and I take it you're talking about 1970 for the white Xmas?

How many of those are say the last 15 years?...I bet the figures will look less impressive, some good research there but analogues from many winters ago are futile with GW overriding many factors.

No they'll just continue , it's amazing the continuous flow for a number of days from North Africa all the way up to the Barents Sea on the ecm run...if this was summer it would be scorchio!

Not as dark as the blue I was under and many others and I recorded near 120mm but have to say that figure might be shy as I didn't pay that much attention to my rainfall gauge back at the start of the month (deluge of Storm Alex). At least I think we can safely say this month won't be anywhere as wet as October (he said).

Well a number on here and the ec seasonals a couple of weeks back were pointing to an 'interesting' November with positive MSLP towards Greenland/Iceland...just a reminder

October 2020 - these charts about sum it up! dreadful. South East had an average of 174mm of rain and an average of 50-70% of sunshine.

Tell me about it...In my mind we were either going to have the continuation of near the 1961-90 CET series or it was going to be mild ala July (coolish) into August (much warmer). Fooled by shortish to mid-term modelling I'm afraid and no signs for the 1st half of this month of positive MSLP anomalies towards Iceland/Greenland as forecast by ec seasonals.