Froze were the Days

Yes still early days but out to near mid-month I'm not noticing much impactful...but again those higher than normal returns aren't really indicative of making that much of an impact on these shores (yet, crossing fingers), just not the raging low pressure we usually experience to the north west.

If so they have only been minutely and the redeeming feature has been of low heights close to the UK and a number of those mslp seasonal's simply weren't showing this (closer to the reverse). Anyway if this has been the case as you state it's very easy to misconstrue these mslp thumbnails to something us 'coldies' think is 'boom time'.

What I want to know is what happened to the seasonal models i.e. dwd/ukmo/ec/gem that were in general showing mslp +heights to the north west or not far from the UK - that certainly hasn't materialised! Looking at the medium term modelling just looks to me to be somewhat of a southerly jet which equates to rain at times but not overly mild = half baked cold synoptics.

What's this got to do with Weather?...wrong area, should be in the lounge. I'll go for Human League - Don't you want me and OMD - Maid of Orleans both from the snowy December of 1981.

Just a typical slush fest here...which I'm steadily getting use to when ever we to have a chance, but got zip last winter and not even a snowflake in sight so already beaten that. Since 2013 I've experienced several slush fests which have lasted a few hours or so, Jan 2017 (1-2cms), Dec 2017 (2cms), Jan 2019 (1 cm) and this one about the depth of an ants private part. Most notable thing driving to Maldon today was the flooded roads...fields look like quagmires!

Yep! practically stretches around the globe at a certain latitude and all the disturbances are taking place towards the Arctic...not much mixing of cold and mild air masses at our latitude...maybe some inversion cold from a cooling continent.

Strikes me as 2 main features to sum up the synoptics in the next week 1. Western Russian High (static) and 2. Limpet low pressures hanging about the UK in chilly air. As you pointed out due to the less cold continent in years gone by this would have been more eyewatering...I'm waiting for a cold spell where we actually experience a cold air mass from the north or east not under low pressure! (i.e. Oct/Nov 2019, beginning of Oct 2020) seems a rarity now days! It's cold but not as we (use) to know it...

ecm 0z still a limpet low mess with a shortwave (who would have thought in the North Sea) developing out of the blue so rain chilly rain hot sausage and mustard! (a bit of seasonal Oliver for you :))...in a year of strangeness and uncertainty nothing has changed good ol' Western Russian High (every run going absolutely nowhere).

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ECM 0z's have 'smelt' of breakdowns the last couple of runs...it's the 12z's which are holding onto the hope, be interesting which starts moving to the other?

Better ecm op tonight...but I think it will take more than a nuclear explosion to get that Russian high to move (it never goes anywhere).

What almost as boring as ecm output?...maybe the models are telling us to hibernate and wake up when we have something to look at...In March.

CFS latest run shows nothing of the sort and a return to +NAO by about the 8th/10th...

ECM has limpet lows continually over England for the next 10 days...looks like good ol' cold rain for the time being - oh joy!

Here we go folks! strap in for the ride that will be 2020/21. Stopping at Disappointment Central, Tedium Court Road and Frustration Circus - let the Autumn continue Winter begin! Just a thought, the last time the country was in such dire straits was the Winter of discontent which happened to be 1978/79 and we know what that brought...

hhmmmm...the ec46's which were so poor and misguided quite a few back in January/February 2019 I do believe.

It's like pulling teeth watching the ecm currently...going nowhere fast, chilly with rain 2.0 (the cold kind) unless you live on an elevated hill or peak

Not going to be fooled by the short and medium term modelling (as I did for this November)...milder before mid-month so 5.9c for me please.

Too many people in the MAD thread getting carried away with charts at 7 days plus away and even then they're not showing anything particularly cold...anything non-Atlantic and it's party popper time, that's how much the bar has been lowered. As to the here and now another dull benign day to no doubt add to the many this upcoming winter.

What a joke!...just seen the latest ecm 0z and that Russian high does nothing, just stays put in a permanent position. I don't like to say it but by day 10 looks like signs of the jet getting going towards the Greenland area.

Here we go Tom...my guesses CATEGORY 1 - (A) - How many North Atlantic Storms will be named during the 3 Months (DJF), of Winter? - 5 (B) - What will the last named North Atlantic Storm be, during the 3 Months (DJF), of Winter? - Fleur CATEGORY 2 - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in the NetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region. - 7th December CATEGORY 3: - Predict the Lowest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 3 Months of Meteorological Winter (DJF). - ( -6.9 C) CATEGORY 4: - Predict the Highest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 3 Months of Meteorological Winter (DJF). -( 15.2C) CATEGORY 5: - (A) - Predict the Highest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 24 Hours of Christmas Day. - (10.1C) (B) - Predict the Lowest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 24 Hours of Christmas Day. - (0.5C)

I know this isn't rocket science but the longer we can sustain a blocked pattern the quicker the continent/Scandi and western Russia will cool down and benefit as we head towards winter proper - by that time Autumn will probably have returned

Problem is once again we're seeing some form of a jet stream or low pressure wanting to keep forming in the Norwegian to Barents Sea vicinity (something which has been apparent the last few weeks or so).

Less potential than other recent 12z runs in my opinion...in fact less potential than General Cluster finding what's on the end of those footprints.

Yes presto!?!...so where is the northerly from yesterday's 12z at 240z+? I wonder if we might get another month of the good ol' day 10 potential of December 2018 over again?