Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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Last time we had a sub -1c winter month going by the 1961-90 series was December 2010...sort of says it all, cold winters never mind cold winter months are on the decrease and so much was vaunted about this solar minima...
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Yep! some parts of southern central England (the mystical area which largely misses out in cold weather) got lucky late last January from basically a rather underwhelming month and conditions being just the right side of marginal on an occlusion to bring a reasonable amount of wet snow (nice pics by the way). A lot of the country had nothing.
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1 hour ago, Matty88 said:
Although there are signs of a pattern change close to Xmas itself
You're crystal ball has come into focus then looking nearly 3 weeks ahead?...treat even that with a huge spade of salt (and yes there must be tons of the stuff stock piled to treat the roads/pavements after numerous mild winters of recent times).
But other than that agree with your post.
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Prozac already being dished around in the MOD thread and it's only the 4th day of winter...chuckle!
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Always amazes me what people think is a 'cold' day as we enter winter...had a max of 7c here this afternoon which is roughly 1 degree below normal for the time of year in the south east, and yes still the lady presenter on Look East banging on about how chilly it is...yawn.
One good thing, lots of sun the last couple of days, I'll take that for the next 3 months if we can't get any true cold or snow.
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Following the GFS isn't good for the nerves with 4 runs a day with usually big variations between some runs (usually the 0z and 18z) and no doubt some bringing eye opening runs usually after day 7 and into FI if cold and snow is what your after, but if this is your thing getting your hopes up and then usually being dashed keep watching.
I'm being a lot lower key this winter with the background signals (other than low solar input) and global models forecasting a +NAO and in general keeping out of the MOD thread, Since summer all I've been following is the ECM and been wondering what the commotion has been about the last few days but even this model has been sniffing at something more blocky and colder at day 8 onwards (but gone off it this morning on the 0z). There lies the problem it is at that elusive range which even with the ECM I have learnt is a long long way away in meteorological terms and believe me just following the euro model has more often than not 'wobbled' at that range if something out of the ordinary is what you're after.
Maybe just follow one model, I advise UKMO or ECM and up to the more reliable time range of 7 days...we have just too much choice and long range to gaze at in hope in the internet era.
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2 hours ago, lassie23 said:
I told everyone a foot of snow is on the way.
You work for the Daily Express?...
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41 minutes ago, Griff said:
Fascinating to watch Gavs winter 2019/20 forecast.
The analogues (like autumn of this year), drier to the North, ie Scotland, with jet much further south.
Favours northern blocking...
Jury well and truly out on Gavs winter weather vids regarding analogue techniques (pattern matching) to forecast the winter ahead, I'm not sure it applies to the degree it would 20+ years ago with larger factors now being involved.
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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
it's the modern eira, this upcoming weather for 2019 is classed as very cold, in the 80's then not even a thought of a warning with an average upcoming spell
So Ian Brown was 9/10 years premature with his large teapot theory?...
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1 hour ago, markyo said:
There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather between 0000 on Friday 29th November and 0900 on Monday 2nd December in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.
Utterly ridiculous - BBC at lunch were predicting near 4c in the north and 6/7c in the south at the weekend and don't forget winter starts on Sunday...I've got winter records going back to 1983 which matches those at the start of the season quite a few times and colder so how can that be severe?, what a snowflake nation we've become!
Interesting so what would that have made late November early December 2010 then?...catastrophically cold maybe. chuckle!
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23 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
i wonder what christmas day will be like this year down south
Almost guaranteed for temps to be somewhere between 6c - 13c by day and without a doubt green, whether it's raining or partly sunny is another thing. Small chance of a frost hanging around in the morning making it a paler shade of green.
That's what my crystal balls says
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I think the last couple of days has epitomised our changing climate...for a majority of this month we have experienced suppressed temperatures largely by day but nothing untoward but as soon as any atlantic air mass or air originating from further south shows up the temperatures eclipse what we have been experiencing on the flip side, night time temperatures the last couple of nights haven't even got into single figures here, 10.5c and 10.2c respectively.
Unbelievably the sun has just come out...
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15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
the CFS defies description. Has it ever been right?
If memory serves me correctly - yes! back in late January/February 2013 for that very cold March that followed...other than that no.
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29 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
I think the stats out next week will show this one to have been wetter and colder than average.
Yes agree...but in this part of the world not that much colder than average I would imagine, but feels like it due to recent Novembers being mild!
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30 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
It's gone from the prospect of raging blizzards to, at least we will have a bit of frost that looks like snow, in the MOD thread
That's what happens if you follow the GFS run by run like they ALL do in that thread and no doubt it brings some good cold stuff at times but if you haven't been looking at that model you'll wonder what all the commotion has been about. I've just been looking at the ecm and nothing else, maybe a chance of some 'wintryness' at the weekend and then a northerly toppler...I actually like the less stress free way of following 1 model.
Didn't TEITS say last winter (though he posts far less now) that he saves himself the bother of getting wound up by not bothering to look beyond day 6/7 and rarely looks at 06z/18z runs (something like that).
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1 hour ago, steveinsussex said:
How do you fit in such a tiny house?
Makes the snow appear a lot deeper!
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8 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:
I must not look at Charts after T+96
Do yourself another favour and don't even bother looking at the GFS...seems like 9 out of 10 times all the 'madness' comes from that model. All I've been doing is following the ECM and wondering what the commotion is about.
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11.6c max here today, the first double digit day since the 7th, but pretty murky and damp (everything everybody hates about Novembers).
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5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:
In my 50+ Years of being interested in Meteorology, I've witnessed relatively few examples of pre Christmas Snow.
You've forgotten 2009 Tom, snow before Xmas and after...and that is a rarity in itself only equalled by 1981 in my lifetime.
2017 was another example but on a far lesser scale which didn't last long...
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3 hours ago, Weather-history said:
The other event was the very severe gale of 2nd January 1976 that people tend to remember from that year.
I remember that well, we had tall trees around our house (Firs and Spruces) and honestly thought one would come down on the house or nearby, it was scary stuff. I was 8 at the time and by far the strongest winds I'd experienced, I think the strongest winds were originally from the west and then more of a northerly direction.
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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
It was a poor winter for wintry weather and January was a right washout, one of the wettest Januarys on record.
Yes you're right! - January up to mid-February looked dreadful, maybe I was thinking of 88-98 being the mild dry euro high dominated winter.
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14 minutes ago, Griff said:
Mention of 1987 gets my attention (I was 8 but I believe it was a cold winter).
Why?...December 87 and winter 87/88 was mild and fairly dry if memory serves me correctly.
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36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Another day, another set of dreadful model runs...
EC 12z is vile, just one low after another..
And breathe...
At least on the latest ecm run the jet seems on a more southerly path but we've seen trough disruption this month largely south eastwards over the country or near by but it seems a tall order to actually get into a 'real' cold air mass i.e. cold heights well to the north.
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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Froze were the Days
I wonder where BFTP (Fred) is?...didn't he call for a coldish December but currently looks like another bad call from him and lets be honest there's been a lot.
It doesn't look like mild all the way with some Pm incursions and there might be some wintryness on the odd day at altitude looking at the latest ecm but nothing untoward. Today not in a mild air mass where I am but thermometer still showing 10.5c here in the south east so on that basis will certainly be milder than average over the next week in the south east.