[January CET]

If you look at recent years though, February has actually delivered less in the way of cold and snow than January and December. 2008 and 2011 in particular stick out as two very mild recent Februarys.

To true, at times February has been to me part winter part start of spring, another exceptionally mild Feb that springs to mind I think was 2002, about 3c above average. We've had alot of mild febs over the last 14/15 years.

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Yep up to 12c today, this winter has now seen 24 days (in this part of the country) with double digit maxes and very few 'cold' days and as mentioned just last weekend/monday providing chillier temps and some frosts other than that very little. No doubt our expectations have risen over the last few winters and maybe we have just gone back to default this winter.

[Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion]

Not sure if the METO forecast of 50/50 scenario will go 1 of 2 ways for the start of February, Easterlies or the typical south westerlies? just been running through my archives and have come across a couple of Februarys that followed mildish Decembers and Januarys. Archives have shown the UK have largely been under the influence of fairly stagnent area of HP or strong ridge from the Continent or Scandanavia and never 'tapped' into the source of cold air, the latest GFS looks similar and to a degree even the ECM, 2003 was an example which had a CET fractionally below normal. So to sum up that the weather can go 2 ways is largely incorrect, but wouldn't be at all be suprised to see the jet stream run out of steam or be displaced to our north or partly south but this doesn't mean we will be effected by cold weather. Only a thought.

[Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion]

Unfortunately he keeps updating his forecast and hasn't been right yet for this winter, initially he was looking at a colder spell setting in after xmas towards the new year and I believe then updated it towards mid January - I can't help thinking he is cold biased.

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Maybe for some, but if you look past the pendulum swings then you can see which direction we are headed.

Agreed the trend is there, whether we get proper cold on these shores and it stays to our east is another thing.

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

After initial optimism this morning with a possible easterly showing it's teeth it's all gone rather pear shaped again (that didn't take long). We'll see what tomorrow brings.

[When Should We Get Worried About Winter?]

If nothing in the way of blocking is occuring on the models I'd say earlyish February, by the looks of the output so far this winter and with the lack of heights to the north of the UK I'm concerned already, even potent brief arctic blasts have almost been non existent too this winter.

[Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion]

Thankfully the 12Z ensemble mean is colder in FI with more of a continental flow off the continent, hopefully a return to the excellent cold ESE'y flow like early in the week for end of January into February.

Don't know about cold, we had maxes of 6/7c over the last few days which is pretty typical for the time of year but better than the rubbish milder damp rubbish of today.

So far this winter if we say a daily max of 10c is 'mild' and a daily max of 5c is 'cold' in my location of east Essex we have had 22 mild days already and only 4 cold ones - says it all!

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

'We're colder than Moscow' - I don't think so! absolute garbage from both Express and Daily Mail once again, I read a section in the Mail yesterday (well away from the front cover) and there were so many inaccuracies in the piece e.g. Dec - Feb 2011 had a mean of 1.5c, December 2010 was the coldest December for 31 years? 'The weathers going to get milder mid-week but colder towards the weekend with temps of 8-9c although milder than recently will still be chilly for the time of year'...I could go on but we all know that journalists at these papers know very little about weather, other than the great Jonothan Powell at PWS (how he's managed to do anything this autmn/winter is beyond me due to the constant quotes/forecasts he keeps giving these rags).

[Model Discussion Thread - January 13th]

Wasn't there a stand off between the GFS and ECM around the end of November 10 period with the reversal, GFS showing cold and ECM not, almost up to near a week before the arrival of the cold spell and I think the ECM eventually did a 'u-turn'. Infact the ECM was the poorest model for blocking then with UKMO and then GFS leading the way. Just food for thought.

I might have got the time wrong but there certainly has been a period when the ECM did an about turn after consistantly not backing down.

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

It's not half way through winter and in my location 21 days that have recorded double figure maxes since the start of December! - must be the warmest start to a January for many a year, correct me if I'm wrong.

[Southern England Regional Discussion Thread]

Yeah seen crocusses and snowdrops up already - probably the earliest I've ever seen them in the winter, soil temps must be warm.

Haven't had a frost either for about 3 weeks, so much for winter.

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Felt like early spring today and yesterday, last time we had any form of a frost was back on 21st December! seen snowdrops and crocus out already, quite ridiculous. Quite unbelievable too over the last year how high pressure has 'set up' synoptically in all the places which would bring the UK very mild/warm conditions bar Summer.

I can see a return to more typical Atlantic weather next week like we had for much of December, some milder pockets with colder Pm stuff at times and agin becoming windier.