Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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Agreed slight delay again in the ECM in bringing in the link up to Scandy and the evolution particularly on the GFS is more to the east and hence the real cold far to the east, a slight step backwards!
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Even if we do get there (to my untrained eye not a lot of difference between the GFS (+132) and ECM (+144) and as mentioned not a lot of margin for error to go all Pete Tong we still have that matter of the SW in the Norwegian Sea if we don't get enough energy pushing the Iceland LP south east and in turn no link up to the Scandy HP - just another hurdle to leap.
Cautious at the least at the moment, but good model watching all the same.
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TWO Winter forecast: Cold early and late
Overview
Cold weather mostly early and late in the winter, with milder spells sandwiched in between.
Temperature
The winter is expected to be slightly colder than average (possibly close to average) over the 3 month period.
Precipitation
Slightly drier than average in the south east, but close to average in the north west over the 3 month period.
December
Temperature: Slightly below average (below average more likely than above average)
Precipitation: Below average
First half
The first half of the month is expected to bring colder than average conditions with an ongoing risk of overnight frosts. Precipitation amounts are likely to be lower than average, but bringing a mix of rain, sleet and snow. As usual snow will be more likely over higher ground and in the north, but much of the country could see some snow for a time.
Second half
The second half of the month may begin wintry, but less cold weather is forecast to push back across the UK, and for this to last for much of the time with temperatures trending back above average. With milder weather there is likely to be an increased tendency for wet and windy weather, particularly in the north west and later on in the period. The south east should be drier at times. Overall the frost risk is expected to reduce and become fairly low, although perhaps higher in the south eastern corner at times.
January
Temperature: Slightly above average (above average more likely than average)
Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average
First half
The first half of the month is expected to changeable weather with showers or longer spells of rain. Transient colder conditions are likely, especially in the north where hill snow is likely, but on the whole temperatures are expected to be above average during this period, with a relatively low frost risk for the first half of January. Very windy at times.
Second half
The second half of the month may see a continuation of the unsettled weather with temperatures close to average in the north and remaining slightly above average in the south. A mix of wet and windy weather, and brighter interludes is expected. Some brief colder incursions from the north west are likely to bring hill snow, and possibly snow to lower levels temporarily in the north.
February
Temperature: Slightly below average (below average more likely than average)
Precipitation: Slightly belowaverage
First half
The first half of the month is expected to bring a good deal of relatively mild and unsettled weather across the north of the country. The wettest weather is forecast to be in the north west, with the south be drier at times. Later in the period an increased frost risk is expected in the south and east.
Second half
A transition to much colder weather is expected in the middle and second half of the month, with possibly the coldest spell of the winter developing. With the colder conditions frosts are likely to become widespread, and some snow is likely. Cold conditions are expected for most of the period
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After not trying to put to much detail on this and looking at all the models in the short and medium term outlook I can't really see any significant cold weather, yes it's going to be colder than average for the time of year with the possibility of wintryness in area's and certainly night time frosts but nothing that screams raging Greenland/Scandy block, oh and the odd occasional milder intrusion.
So I'd say up to mid-December colder than average but nothing exceptional.
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Well here we go since my last successful 'guesses' of last winter - cool to cold start and then HP becoming more dominant from mid-month and maybe somewhat milder nearer xmas, not sure if there will any significant cold spell though so I shall go for a cool 4.3c (TimmyH last winter)
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ECM 12z - no doubt one of a few permutations to thrown up by the models in the days ahead, but saying that defo signs of blocking either to the north east or north coming up and a disrupted jet stream over the next few weeks so some good model watching and certainly better than this time last year!
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What has happened to big Joe's November deep cold forecast?
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Scandinavia is north of the UK last time I looked ? Anyway its a probabilty chart for the 3 months of winter, so there will be many setups over this
period.
If you look at the map - the warm anomolies directly north of the UK between Scandinavia and Iceland, that suggests an area of higher pressure in that area and then you can suss out the approximate synopsis from that.
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No that map suggets (MetO) high pressure to the north (hence the warmer temps there) with Arctic winds particularly to the west of the UK and somewhat milder to the east.
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Hahahahahaha!! comedy gold, goes to prove what a pathetic rag it is! - infact funnier than Viz, and as mentioned always Jonothan Powell at the heart of it.They roll it out most years when sales are low....
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I wonder if Ladbrokes has an accumulator going: Piers Corbyn, Joe B, Brian Gaze and Jonathan Powell all to forecast an Xmas Snowmageddon? Collective odds of 1/6?
I'd leave Brian Gaze out of that accumulator but the other 3 would certainly see odds as short as 1/25 on.
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Terrible first half, then better.
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Right get the thermals out for November, highs in the mid-80's next week, hmmm haven't seen anybody forecasting that!
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Its a UK bank holiday most of them are wet and the models agree
Washout? I don't think so - even Anglia TV stated that the weekend would become more unsettled but 'far from a washout'.
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See Daily Bilgepress has stated today that the Bank holiday weekend will be a 'washout' - wasn't it just a few weekends ago when they were saying the same thing for a weekend? and... basically it was just showery with some heavier rain to the north west. The paper makes me chuckle even when I see a front page headline weather related or not.
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31c and hot and muggy all day, real Mississippi weather! hottest day of the year!
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Fairly confident that August will be somewhat warmer than average, maybe up to 1.5c warmer than average in the south.
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27.1 c on the coast here today and with a breeze! higher than what I expected, maybe a tad higher tomorrow and then slowly cooling off by a few degrees.
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yeah went for a long walk this afternoon on the Essex coast and bare in mind I haven't looked at the forecast for the last few days and thought I saw some towering cloud out in the North Sea building, quite strange as inland the cloud was not convective at all. Also see the forecast temps for today have been wrong - got up to 24.5c here in Burnham, not the 20c as forecast by the Beeb!
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yuck! more like Autumn out there at the moment with a constant 25mph wind blowing. I too can see a better end to the summer, probably August being ok (just a hunch).
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Are temps due to get into the 80's next week? I've had a quick peek at the UKMO fax and I can't see it, yes more settled warmer conditions but the 80's? According to Jonothan 'I like to quote everything to the Express and I've even started up a new forecast company' Powell it is!
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Even with the last 10 days of May being very warm, the 20 days or so before that wasn't remarkably cold and to come out with headlines like that is just naive or wanting himself again to be in the limelight? I certainly wouldn't pay for his forecasts. I've been more accurate than him with just general hunches based trends and looking at past records.
Very good Essan
the bloke is a joke! -
Shocking weather for the Jubilee pagent, raining still and temps for most of the day of around 11c - makes me laugh that bookmakers had reasonably low odds of 90 degrees being reached somewhere in the UK over this bank holiday weekend just about a weekend ago - laughable!
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DUST OFF THE BARBIE, IT'S A SIZZLING 82F
Forecaster Dan Williams said next week is also shaping up well with temperatures well above-average for the time of year.
He said: “It is looking like a lovely weekend, and next week, although slightly cooler, will still be good for the time of year.â€
Bookmakers Ladbrokes have slashed the odds from 8-1 to 4-1 on temperatures soaring above 100F (38C) during the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee weekend.
That defo won't happen even if the GFS isn't believed, the last really hot spell we had in early June I believe was back in 1996, correct me if I'm wrong but we got up to around 33c then! but only for a day or so.
the bloke is a joke!
Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Unfortunately I don't want to sound like a 'Glass half empty man' but the chances of that coming off or even remotely close to it are pretty minimal - an absolutely incredible run, the best I have seen in the medium term and as been mentioned probably snowier than 1987 and more widespread. Saying that though we certainly overall have seen some pretty good op runs now for the last day so there's a chance we could see a good easterly!