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Froze were the Days

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Posts posted by Froze were the Days

    London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 9

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I suspect for us somewhere in the 8-12cms sounds about right, though maybe towards the bottom end. Still its hard to tell, it just depends on exactly where the heaviest pluses will travel through.

    Got a good 2-3hrs left of heavy snow for central/eastern areas, western areas have less but how much depends on the forward speed of the front and whether it starts to slow soon.

    What do you reckon on the 18z GFS? Looks a dogs dinner, I'm not to bothered - UKMO looks good. Heavyish snow still, blowing around.

    London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 9

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Front end has slowed right down. For now the back end is still moving at a decent clip but its going to have to slow down soon enough as the front edge has slowed over the past hour or so it seems. Not enpough for a stall bar maybe for the far east BUT we should get a solid 3-4hrs of heavy snow for most, maybe more for eastern locations.

    You reckon we could get more out of this? Im on the Essex coast, for some reason I'm expecting about 8mm or so.

    London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 8

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes this Southerly wind is getting quite strong here as well (Almost on Convective Levels)

    Grass is still visible so no great depths here but Moderate Snow all the same.

    The bigger depths will be later this week when the Streamers Set-Up :clapping::drinks:

    Edit; Interestingly my Temp just took a nosedive on me graph from 0c to -1.3c in about 15 minutes

    18Z Pub run has gone off on one and no easterlies projected but just a flabby high, struggles for retrogression to Greenland as well. Not to concerned at the moment. About 1.5cms here at the moment.

    London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Froze were the Days

    Okay, maybe not a higher risk, but what you have to remember is that once we have cold, normally the snow turns up, so the fact we will be getting cold air for longer increases our chance of snow during this period? This time last week I don't think anyone could have predicted a large snow event over large parts of the country this weekend, so surely at somepoint during this upcoming sustained cold spell, we will have further snow events in the south-east?

    Can't really see it to be honest mate, general synoptics if the progged front/trough is further to our west which keeps us in the colder air longer just means to my untrained eye a continental airmass with light winds from the East or south east and relatively high pressure and hence little convection, Kold Weather might have a different angle on it but that's how I see it. Always a shot further down the line from another westerly attack but by then although still cold, surface temps would probably not as cold so a more marginal set up regarding precipitation.

    London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Froze were the Days

    we are possibly on the cusp of a legendary bit of weather. I wouldn't worry about any shift westwards.personally....as that would only serve to really install the easterly and the cold. I can remember 1987 where areas to the east and the south of London ended up with nearly a foot and those areas possibly progged to have snow on sat/sun didn't fare as well.

    I do have a concern however. Not that it's reflected in any models whatsoever as far as I know.....but I've a guarded feeling still, just enough to curb my ramping instinct, that the front will in fact end up as far east as was being shown little over 24 hours ago! I appreciate that the strength of a cold pool and a Siberian High can be underestimated by the models...but i can't recall a previous winter where we have had a strong easterly influence this late on into it, when it hasn't showed it's hand earlier in the season, even if only to be brushed easily aside.

    I hope this nagging feeling has no substance....I certainly don't think it should have.....but being this close and knowing the heartbreak of years gone....who wouldn't retain some pessimism! :-)

    The 1987 set up is nothing like the synoptics over the next couple of days, 87 we had huge convection in extremely cold uppers and yes as you said a foot or so of snow was 'delivered' to the south eastern counties particularly coastal areas but what we'll possibly see over the weekend are quite rare synoptics and very difficult to call, where as 87 the writing was on the wall. Not sure about legendary either, 79, 81/82, 86 (for cold in Feb) 87, 91 and possibly Dec 2010 but this I don't think so. But you never know the weather can be pretty unpredictable!

    London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    For those in the far East and South East. Please do not worry about this front stalling to west. This means only one thing, and that is prolonged cold and a greater chance of snow in the future. Already some of the models are hinting at further easterlies during the t+120 to 144 hour time frame, this time with a higher chance of snow showers. Please stop worrying about this weekend and look forward to the week ahead where things could get very interesting.

    Really? a higher risk of snow in the future - not sure about that, but remaining cold yes.

    PWS Closes

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Very interesting - I thought I saw lovely voluptuous Charlotte at the Norfolk show with her 'white T-shirt' on or maybe it was Jonothan Powell in drag. I always thought he was to busy giving the mail and express sensationalist quotes during the autumn to do anyhting else and now that proves true!

    The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Froze were the Days

    Mark Vogan is now starting with all due respect to make himself look a bit silly, he is undoubtedly a 'coldie', this I think is the 4th time he's updated his forecast this winter and still waiting for that elusive cold spell. Saying that it is more his collective thoughts on the output rather than an updated forecast, bit still don't hold your breath.

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