Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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So far been a reasonable start to winter here, we've experienced a brief unexpected snowfall of about 2 cms and seen plenty of frosts and a lovely deposit of rime covering everything the other morning so cannot complain.
The downside now looks like to break the pattern change of that Siberian High of giving us false hope of significant cold (in all truth needs to change) we could be entering a phase of a lot mobile milder conditions and we all know by past experience can last for weeks, let's hope it only lasts up until the New Year and we look for something different whether that is High pressure in Mid-Atlantic/Strong Greenland HP or a weakening of the Atlantic and heights to the North East. But unfortunately the rest of December is a right off in my opinion other than maybe a passing glimpse of Arctic maritime air to the north.
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Very poor models outputs this morning in my opinion, at least on the upside it looks like we are slowly going into a pattern change with more of a SW/NE tilt of the jet and both ECM and GFS looks like they agree with this in a week or so's time, maybe poor in the short term but better in the longer outlook as we aren't exactly getting anywhere with that Siberian High pressure at the moment.
As mentioned towards the back end of next week could be pretty mild but at least conditions will be more mobile and we have to look for cold elsewhere.
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Still feel we're not getting anywhere with this set up - nothing has really changed for me, the Siberian High is still there and somewhat of a 'weaker' Atlantic appears but today the models have backed of this idea of possible undercutting, please in another weeks time can we see a different pattern change even if this means that High clearing off.
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hhmm... interesting as mentioned with a slight weakening of the jet but that's about as far as I would go at the moment, blink and we've got the Atlantic back on us, that's if we get any form of undercut. Like to be more optimistic but unfortunately I can't. Get closer to 96z and this is still modeled and yes we'll grab it with both hands after the recent output.
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I suppose but at least we've had three good winters out of the last five!
This is it. Many times in the past people have wanted a reset to the pattern hoping to see heights develop to the north west but often this just hasn't happened and instead like you say we get weeks and weeks of winter taken up by the zonal train. With the grim outlook up to and beyond Xmas and many seasonal models singing from the same hymn sheet and going for southerly blocking over the next few months, I think it's likely we'll see a zonal theme dominate most of the winter period. I'm even starting to wonder if the flurry I had last week was my snowfall for winter 2012/13!
I am absolutely staggered how the output has changed in 7 days I really am. Just think back to this time last week when we had that sensational ECM 12Z run to where we are now!
Yeah agreed on your thoughts - basically we weren't getting anywhere with the synoptics we are about to experience (end of this week and next week) and even if there was a form of undercutting that Siberian High the Atlantic looks just too strong for any strong ridge to retrogress and would only be transitory at best, so unfortunately a reset is probably for the best (like the way I'm talking as if the weather is a computer).
What's more annoying about the favourable SST's and Teleconnections, SSW etc for this month all going down the swanny basically through such a small feature as a short wave which really wasn't modelled at all until 5/6 days before hand - Steve Murr for one was dismayed about it and it's not the first time or the last time we will see such a small feature ruin a cold outlook.
Fingers crossed for the New Year!
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Personally I think this more Atlantic spell we'll soon all be experiencing will see out December, it looks like the jet stream will be westerly and eventually south westerly, only positive spin I can put on it is that the Russian High will (in a weeks time) shoot it's bolt and we'll see a more mobile flow from the Atlantic and hopefully in turn see some heights to the NW or maybe even eventually a slacking off cyclogenesis and maybe more strong ridging either to Greenland or to the north of the UK. Just hope now the floodgates are about to open it doesn't take weeks and weeks out of the winter which can so easily happen.
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This was always going to happen (more mobile Atlantic conditions) once LP became established in mid-Atlantic unfortunately we need a whole 'pattern change' to re-establish cold and unfortunately it looks like that will 'see off this month' with an increasingly west and then maybe south westerly jet, as long as this doesn't continue into January I won't be too bothered.
By the way early December cold rarely leads to a white xmas so glad I didn't get carried away with the propaganda.
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It does feel like we're going nowhere fast!
I did have some optimism yesterday as things appeared to be slowly heading in the right direction for another attempt at an easterly around 192 hrs. Since this point we appear to have taken another step back unfortunately. I haven't looked at SST profiles recently but I'm wondering if that warm patch of water off the east coast of Canada is still there and wonder how much it's aiding with the pattern of energy perpetually being spat at us despite the PV being advertised to reside across the other side of the hemisphere.
Yep very warm SST's off the eastern seaboard, must be promoting cyclogenisis, interesting to note Norwegian sea is colder than average (should this correlate with shortwave formations - I'll have to look into the tuition forum on them).
I'd like to be more optimistic but this could be the first bout of real mobile Atlantic conditions eventually occurring once the 'buffer' of the Siberian High has been displaced, looking back after the last week or so I really can't help thinking we've been unlucky, the long wave patterns have been favourable along with SST's, Teleconnections but the Atlantic has awakened at precisely the wrong time, opportunities missed.
Only positive I can make is that I thought it would start to trend milder after mid-month (in my December CET forecast). - I would rather have been wrong.
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Nice to see even in FI we see a short wave in the same location (Norwegian Sea) which dismayed us all pop up once again, strikes me we're going absolutely no where with this synoptical pattern - even up to the run up for xmas and what cold was trending in the lowish-res has now gone.
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GFS 06 run trending even further away from a possible easterly in the medium term, just a small ridge makes it in from the continent before sinking south and then possibly some very mild air towards FI. At least it doesn't look like at the moment we are going to be 'strung' along like the last 2 episodes, sad thing is there always seems to be a Russian High or Siberian high present but not doing enough to largely effect our weather in terms of significant cold, but as mentioned the synoptics were far worse this time last year let's just hope we now don't go into a phase of mild mobile Atlantic conditions later in the month.
Just looking at the ECM certainly has potential later in the run - one to keep an eye on, possible undercutting?
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why is the Atlantic the form horse if even the met wont commit from wed
Eventually from this synoptic and I'm largely basing this on the ECM output and past history the Atlantic will eventually erode the block after several attempts, Atlantic WILL be the form horse over retrogressing HP's to the east and this is no different. As mentioned we need sustained heights to the north for any chance of cold getting here, I can't see it happening based on that output.
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The might of the Russian high even if it was on steroids wouldn't manage that, its actually bulleted that low se into Italy quicker than the rush to the doors at the Harrods sale!
And as we see later the Russian high teases and then wants to go home. Generally in this set up if its going to happen the models will deliver it quickly as the PV forces some westwards retrogression as it heads to Siberia.
I have a rule for these Russian highs, three strikes and you're out, basically we see many of these modelled which hang around never quite make it and then head away.
So if its going to happen the models will go to that solution quickly, give it a few days and lets see whether we see some retrogression in the pattern.
Totally agree with your post regarding '3 strikes and your out' Re: The Russian HP, I posted this just a moment ago about maybe 3 attempts by LP to displace the block before reading your post, this has happened a couple of times in the past (can't remember the years) but this is generally the case, I'll be surprised if the HP makes retrogression westwards and best I think we'll see maybe a weak ridge but the form horse is eventually the Atlantic sorry to say. Could take until xmas or just before until we see this resolved.
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Personally we're not really getting anywhere at present with the ECM and today's output in my mind is very similar to yesterdays the difference being the decaying Atlantic LP as it tracks back west is only replaced by another similar synoptical low pressure and this time probably more of an easterly progress against the Russian block, this could go on for some time and might take a further third low to displace the block and errosion into Europe - that's how I read it.
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12Impressive consistency from the GFS because although obviously their are slight differences between the 0Z/06 in distant FI the overall trend of blocking is the same with a resulting E/NE,ly flow.
Fasinating spell of model watching to come I feel regardless of the outcome.
Wasn't the GFS pretty consistent for the 2 previous 'faux' cold spells though medium to lo-resolution runs? a lot of folks are now treading very cautiously when a potential easterly shows up but agreed incredible model watching even though no significant cold has shown up just yet, infact I can't remember such a non-zonal period well since 2 years ago!
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Never seen such continuous messy runs particularly from the GFS, there are so many small LP's and HP's at strange latitudes with the JET all over the place not just on this 18z but over recent weeks it's anything but the 'default' zonal or meridianal pattern we have been accustomed to over numerous winters (before 2008) - no wonder it's been such a pain in the backside forecasting of recent times.
If I was to make a forecast for the rest of the month based on the output we have seen and going to experience I don't think it would be anywhere near zonal and your mild mush but transient less cold spells with always the possibility of returning cold conditions which never last long as the synoptics look so disturbed. Strange days ahead and expect even more 'ups and downs'.
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the best thing about that is it was only posted less than an hour ago, surley they must know its gone pear shaped????........................................ OH hang on that wont sell papers or get web hits will it lol
Well The Sun says 'It will be the coldest spell since Dec 2010' - the other day The Express said 'The coldest week for 20 years' so it's obviously getting watered down, come tomorrow the tabloids will say something along the lines of 'coldest' night since February to come this week!'
Seriously though 2/3 nights of hard frosts and day time maxes of 2/3c and lucky people near the coast might see a flurry before the Atlantic makes in roads around Thursday.
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Like a Phoenix from the flames, this turns up just in time for crimbo
That's a pretty tame easterly to be honest, some of the air mixed in that comes from the Med - ho hum ba humbug!
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Well who couldn't be taken in, everything was in our favour - teleconnections, SSW event SST's favourable and fairly consistent modelling in the medium term for blocking to the north etc and it has been (or looks to be) a complete turnaround with somewhat of a +ao now. Very difficult not to be suckered in by it all - there's going to be a large amount of sceptics on easterlies now unless it's within 3/4 days range. Not once but twice within a couple of weeks is hard to take, at least we might see something in the way of a brief north easterly and the possibility of some convectivity around Monday/Tuesday.
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My God that newspaper (Express) is annoying! as mentioned above a non-event to spite the papers is the only positive I can see out of this!
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Yeah still to play for although our chances of keeping the cold towards next weekend are far less than ALL models were showing a day or so ago. This country really struggles to get cold air from the continent at the best of times even when the Teleconnections are in our favour and as mentioned why had NONE of the models picked up the blasted SW until late yesterday, how many times has this happened over the last 10 years or so?? frustrating but keeping fingers crossed rather than model watching now:
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Agreed as we head towards the 'finish' line the models seem to be coming up with small variations which are reducing any decent cold or snowfall, have to say again the models in the medium term haven't handled this very well that's if they carry on the 0z theme. ECM not that great either. Still all to play for.
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Just looked at the GFS pub run - very strange, brings the Atlantic in pretty quickly from around 184z but the synoptical pattern finishes almost the same at the end of the run. Really can't think that will happen (almost a stand off for numerous days).
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Matt Hugo thoughts on Twitter are as many i would say.
@MattHugo81: The 12z ECMWF model looks a distinctly cold run and for now should be dismissed particularly by 216/240hrs. Still a cold E'ly is now 'on'!
What does he mean by dismissed? simply as it is in the low-res category?
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Interesting to see what Mr Hugo and Co make of this? perhaps sliding off the fence towards the snowy/frosty garden?
As mentioned above stand by for some disappointments now, if that was +96z then I'd secretly be concerned for the welfare of animals and birdies outside.
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Yes I think they were, looks like the CFS v2 model might not be too far out, saying that looked at it a bit earlier and showed a brief easterly in the New Year. Overall everything looks a bit disappointing.