[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

Would that undercut, bringing in those -16C uppers from Moscow, from that part of the PV?

Most probably not, a developing system like we see all to often deepening and moving somewhat northwards - doesn't seem to be that NW/SE jet for the needed undercutting - but that's just 1 run showing that so not really bothered at the moment.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

Jet stream running out of 'conk' on that run in the medium/FI term on the 12z run and as mentioned a possible Green land HP possibly becoming more prevalent on that run in the later stages? but that is only 1 run, but worth keeping a note.

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Unfortunately this has all the hall marks for a mild mobile winter, even the FI charts on GFS aren't even showing anything remotely cold. Never in the field of long range forecasting have the Teleconnections been so far out!

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

Still very poor outputs in terms of cold, the only straw which can be clutched is the heights close to the UK at the end of next week and the possibility of growing heights near Scandanavia but this will probably only be a temporary blip before the Atlantic rolls in and a stronger jet stream to our north west again becomes established.

[December CET (2012/13 Competition)]

A lot of people called far to low even my relatively mild 4.3 has now been surpassed. I reckon just shy of 5 will be nearer the mark.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

Yuck! awful 06z run absolutely nothing there, but at least some hope of a pattern change on the ECM and yes this time central and south eastern Europe getting the cold stuff if that change happens.

Have to say not feeling to optimistic for January, CFS v2 writes the month off for cold and so far it's been fairly on the money.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

A long long way into FI we some heights to the north and east but still a potent Atlantic even then, so we really are clutching at straws, until then be prepared for some mild calm conditions particularly in the south and yes becoming drier!

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

hhhmmm... not surprising that high pressure would eventually build in from the south there are respites in all very wet periods and as mentioned we need HP to build some where near the UK for possible heights northwards if the Atlantic 'stalls' but judging by the recent output it doesn't look like happening. Disappointing for cold.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

Pretty dreadful 12z GFS and even worse towards FI....that's the lot from me and a merry Xmas to everyone on this forum, will be back in a few days or so's time but can't see anything changing in 'the hunt for cold'.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

CFS v2 model also predicts mid-latitude blocking and possibly to our north around the beginning of the New Year and again with a significant Greenland HP around mid-month, have been following this model from the end of November and has to be said by and large so far for December has been quite accurate other than to get the zonal conditions in maybe a week too early. So maybe a straw to clutch to.

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Hmmmm....models looking pretty dire at the moment, just a succession of depressions wheeling there way across the British Isles with milder and less mild and plenty of rain theme. Too soon to write off winter but all too often when we see the jet stream powered up it can take weeks for some sort of let up. So in general nothing to shout about up till the early New Year.

As for the Teleconnection signals for this winter...dreadful.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

Ha ha, doesn't this just sum things up at the moment...

A better run though, maybe something to start building on.

How is it better? apart from a brief northerly incursion there is nothing on that run that gives hope to cold lovers, infact in the lower resolution part of the run it 'powers' the jet stream up!

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec]

168-192z on the ECM doesn't look right to me, it 'flattens' the LP whilst sliding ESE although there are no height rises to the north and yet again another short wave appears near to Iceland/Norwegian Sea (doesn't surprise me), but the idea of a lull in the wet conditions with height rises close to the UK I can agree on in about a weeks + time.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec]

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

ECM 216 looks loaded for NE heights.....

can we start to see something develop soon!

Yeah but there aren't any, rather mixed output for the New Year - a fairly southerly tracking jet for the next week or so I think will be order of the day.

CFS v2 model seems to gone off the idea of building heights to the NE around the first week of January.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec]

Dreadful 12z GFS run - not really surprising though, just a lot of rain and particularly towards now FI as well. Notice too that people are looking at the SSW warming to grasp onto something as the models are looking increasingly dire for both cold lovers and in terms of rainfall.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec]

That ECM really doesn't want to know at the moment, it initially brings a more southerly jet and then when you think things could get a little bit more interesting then we get a stronger Atlantic depression and the jet stream then kinks SW/NE leaving us in a milder regime.

I'll check out the models tomorrow and then give it a break over xmas as I feel we're not really going any where quick at the moment apart from a brief northerly maybe just after Boxing day effecting the north and some of the usual tempting of something cold well into FI on the GFS (it's like going back in time to 7 years or so ago when the real cold was +300Z away).

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec]

ECM continues on the mild fairly zonal theme, GFS is only mildly better with Pm air effecting the country briefly next week other than that not a lot but a lot of rain.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec]

ECM hasn't shown anything to make us optimistic for days now, obviously nice and consistent when it comes to Atlantic conditions

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Got a feeling that January will be milder than this month, west based NAO spells disaster in terms of cold for this little Island.

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12]

Unfortunately the milder breakdown over the xmas (and before) period was always on the cards once that Russian High shifted southwards and we have to start looking else where, unfortunately as mentioned by a few others a west based NAO is now setting up or appears to be towards FI and that again is not an encouraging sign.

Getting bad vibes about this winter, we've had sniff's of good synoptics ruined this month by small features and now I get the feeling the start of January isn't going to get any better - just a hunch.

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

At least the CFS v2 model has gone away from the zonal train for January and offers up something better...until that changes tomorrow!

[Winter 2012/13 - Chat]

Interesting...very cold North America, shall be keeping an eye on their weather in the next few weeks.

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12]

Ever get the feeling we're not getting any where just some teasing runs and then the default zonal pattern blows in, as I said mild all the way through to the month's end. The most consistent thing in the last day or so is the Iberian High now showing it's presence and that can only lead to one thing...

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12]

To me this is the 'last throw of the dice' for this month in regards to Cold/snow, possible that the North could see wintryness but not holding my breath for other areas, but there has been some backtracking by the models for the HP to hold it's ground and retrogress west but is this just another case of the models throwing us a large red herring?

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12]

Obviously I was wrong!