Froze were the Days

I've heard it could be very localised...this could be the scene in a higher altitude town like Wycombe in the south east if your in the sweet spot!

What's the latest on tomorrow evenings cataclysmic event?...GFS showing low to far north or ECM showing low not oriented right, GFS/P to far south or Icon maybe bang on! haven't been in MOD thread after last night but I bet that's what it's like ...personally feel It will be all a lot hot air (for this region) as per the winter so far! I live in hope of a change...

exactly!... and stay the same between Saturday and Sunday when Saturday was largely a fairly mild day across England?

No that's okay but I've often looked at synoptic charts (since early 80's) without looking at upper temperatures and that generally tells me all I need to know other than inversion cold - if you look at most recent day 9/10 ecm det runs you can see there has been a trend for heights to grow towards western Iberia (also stated by the brave Jason M), okay not mild as you say but the possibility of trending mild. Too many disciples in there following their messiahs and everything they say, don't get me wrong there are some good posters (Steve Sussex, Mr Murr, Bluearmy, Catacol, Nick F) but everybody is falible.

Not me I'm afraid I'm targeted from now on - a bit like Ian Brown of years gone by!

I mentioned the possibility of det runs being more consistent showing mild towards day 9/10 and !!!!!!!...all hell let lose towards me :)...unless you back up your thoughts with numerous ensembles, clusters or anomaly charts your deemed as an idiot which to be honest after this fatigue ridden winter I couldn't be bothered...as said it's not as if many in there haven't backed up there thoughts and still been wrong (last week or so).

Got out of the MOD thread...shot to ribbons and never had so many people quote me saying I was talking rubbish - we'll see if my thoughts come to fruition but they are very 'anti-mild' or anything against the contrary as if a number of them weren't wrong a week or so ago!

.....just like the many on here that went up the merry path a week or so ago!

Well I'm off (ruffled enough feathers)...not on purpose but I'm far from convinced that we'll see any northern blocking come February, as for showing 500mb anomalies and ec clusters they were also off the mark a week or so back - 2 sides to every coin!...just a hunch and I'm not Ian Browns doppelganger by the way.

Yes perhaps re-worded so your correct - more consistently being modelled then...I know everybody is searching for cold and snow but there are 2 sides to every coin anyway with that may laughs on my original post I'll think I'll do stand up as a profession.

Well the last 3 ecm det runs (day 9/10) have shown progressive heights nearer our south or south west coupled with GFS runs but further into FI (consistently)...aren't the issues over the next few days micro details in regards to the Hemispheric pattern?

Wow! good ol' blighty an inch of snow making a BIG impact!

Fancy people now cherry picking the GFS/P - as mentioned the old GFS needs to go in the skip, it just gives peeps on here one less model to get excited or cheesed off about

Get in there!...CFS says yes for deep cold in mid-February lol! - I'll chew my hand off if that happens.

yeah but it's the 06z run - I wonder what it's verification stats are like particularly this winter, pretty poor I should think.

True but to me even when we do get colder uppers over the country (next week) there is a Pm element hitting into this so don't expect much in the way of settling snow and if so it might be very transient in nature, I can just envisage a lot of damp chilly days ahead once we get the mild weekend out the way. Problem is that we've all been fuelled by the SSW and good background signals from global models plus low solar minima so expectations have been high.

Looks like he's just following the MetO forecast...John and team were hardly correct for December were they?

Lets not over exaggerate that, I'd say a minority of people saw snow in the south east, some people in the north and north west of london and parts of the city (particularly high ground) did see some snow to varying depths...I saw some very brief snow yesterday which left a dusting (for half an hour) and what I gather was defo in the minority!

Dear me!...models don't look that brilliant this morning, I know I'm not particularly helping anyone or showing any guidance to back this up but it really is a case of model fatigue now. Been chasing rainbows for the last 2 months or so. Nice to have seen a brief flutter of snow yesterday and some recent air frosts but this really should be the norm in January.

18Z looks all a bit strange from around 230z onwards with a floppy area of low heights covering most of the continent to our east - one thing that is becoming apparent over recent runs is a drop of anything sourced from the east in the foreseeable. As I think Nick F posted earlier today we're seeing a -AO but sadly a signal for still somewhat of a +NAO.

Yes I know...still seem to be a lot of discrepancies. So his argument (reef) is based on Yorkshire v Staffordshire then (I remember Atlantic 252) as he is remarking that 90's were better as per top of the page, not that much distance between them maybe elevation thing?...on the other side of the coin he seems to have experienced more 2010's 1c below average months then down in my neck of the woods as I've only recorded 3. By the way Jan 2013 was only 0.3c below normal. But as mentioned no doubt regional variations but I'd say from my experience the 90's have been slightly better than the 2010's which had a number of cold months clustered (2010).

Certainly the feeling I'm getting too...the Canadian PV lobe just needs to shut up shop.

Ends with some HLB but doesn't look particularly strong...but there's potential there at day 10

That won't happen!! - I mean you logging off , interesting GFS 12z.

Are you sure about the 90's winter months of at least 1c below average? that doesn't add up. I live in Essex and have winter records going back to 1983, off my head I can think of at least 6 (maybe more) 90's winter months that were in that category: Dec 1990, Feb 1991, Dec 1995, Feb 1996, Dec 1996 and January 1997 so I'm sure if Essex had these cold months that Hebdon did in Yorkshire too. Could also scrutinise 2010's 1c below - to my knowledge only Jan and Feb 2010 and Dec 2010 have made the grade (so 3 in all) and Hadley Centre backs this up! The winter mean average temp for '2010''s undoubtedly skewed by the very cold month of December 2010...on the whole I would say the 90's in more southern Britain undoubtedly were cooler than 2010's but there will be variations around our Isles.