Froze were the Days

Strikes me as a slight upgrade in the wording from yesterday...but they seem to be waxing and waning a little but one things for sure the window is slowly closing if we get through the next week without any consistency in the models. GAME ON!!!

Being sarcastic - another dull miserable day to add to the many!

Sadly that doesn't mean much...before this winter 'kicked off' we had many background decent signals - solar minimum, global models showing positive signs for cold weather in this part of the world and then a SSW showing up in December and to date this winter has been forgettable. Saying this I'd be very surprised if the rest of the winter was as bad as the first half but doesn't mean we'll get a decent snow event.

I thought with so many new posts (without going into the thread) every minute the ramping had moved up a notch from last night...how wrong I was! shows you how desperate many are to see something decent this winter, as so far it's been a write off. Notice another bright and sunny day out there

With so many posts every minute (without viewing this thread) I thought the ramping had moved up a notch, how wrong I was!...seems to be a theme when we do get an upgrading on the models in the evening (particularly ecm) the next morning we get downgrades this winter...still interesting model watching but it seems to have been generally like this since November with diddly squat to show, yes somewhat colder weather on the way but not to noteworthy for the foreseeable.

Doesn't mean anything at that range (192 onwards)...as a senior poster just mentioned the ecm is the opposite to the gfs and tends to go 'overboard' with blocking and easterlies at a certain range but then went onto say that with the SSW signal a possibility of a greater chance of a similar type scenario occurring and a northerly blocked snow event before the month is out.

Lady that is today's not 144z!!

Reading into it feels like a 'watering down' of any cold to be honest...for a continuation the MetO 30 dayer was wording cold conditions with frost, fog and snow (certainly in the north) and as we've got nearer to that period (last 10 days of January) it looks like it is veering away from it to a degree. Doesn't surprise me as the MetO 30 dayer has been poor this late Autumn/Winter with regards to forecasting cold or other weather, so who knows we might see an upgrade again in the coming day or week or so but I have little faith in these 30 dayers. So don't get hung up on them!

Wasn't he married to Joan Collins back in the 60's? or have I got the wrong one

To be fair the ecm46 height anomaly signals for blocking back in late December only grew stronger from January mid-month onwards, firstly with weakish height anomalies near Greenland/mid-Atlantic week 1/2 (which have struggled to materialise) with a stronger signal in the Iceland/Greenland area through to week 3/4 - so hopefully it's just delayed but on track?. Correct me anybody if this isn't accurate (just going by memory).

I don't think they'll show much to be honest but they do seem to suggest east or north east winds so probably convective in nature and I don't know how accurate the model is for convectivity?

Looks like they did repeat...:)

Not sure where we go from there but if we did get anywhere near that day 10 point you can see a secondary low develop on it's eastern flank which would move north towards Scandinavia so probably more of a northerly developing and colder uppers being thrown into the mix.

January has been woeful of recent times...2013 the last fairly cold spell but still time to get our hopes up and then dashed

Sadly the rest of it and particularly the 'earmarked' parts have been completely the opposite...at least you gave it a go.

Well at the half way point of the winter and let's face it it's been pretty forgettable, fairly mild a lot of cloudy calm days (as Ian Currie noted in Tom's post above) interspersed with briefly breezier brighter spells and very little in the way of frost...here's to a better second half!

240 doesn't end bad at all...stationery front with increasing continental air into the mix - so possible snow for some lucky people (central/eastern areas?). Only annoying part is the continuation of low heights near to Iceland and Greenland...

To the north and north/west and higher elevations, I can't ever remember a synoptic similar to that which has brought widespread heavy to other regions though.

Similarities with ECM but if I had to be picky would rather see heights developing someway further north as the slider goes south south east...

particularly isobar's posts - all in encryption, I'm sure about 98% of the posters don't know what he's going on about.

I went in there around 6 'ish (after the gfs/p 12z came out) and again after ecm came out - voiced my opinions of total nationwide snow and over reactions to 300+ hours of 'snowmaggedon' and of course the sad faces and replies came back at me...got out quick!

Glad somebody has a crystal ball - thanks Mulzy ...just as much obsessing over 300+ hour runs on the gfs/p which frankly has been throwing a few out of late (onto something?) who knows.

Seriously how many times have we heard that this winter on the ecm post day 10 !?!...you'd think that would go onto produce maybe something similar to what GFS/p showing a few days down the line but too many variables at that range. On the face of it 198-240z nothing to write home about.

Too many over reactions - it is a theme to drop that chunk of the vortex on or near to the British Isles so a real possibility towards FI, the further north you are in that synoptic then quids in but it could be another M4 job! - a push a little further east would be an improvement

further north...yes (nearer -5/6c towards the south)