Froze were the Days

Saw a MetO video yesterday that mentioned they were more confident of dry, frosty and foggy weather after Xmas but not sure about Xmas day itself!!...going by model outputs last night and this morning it looks like they could be wrong, to add to their generally poor worded 30 day outlook's since late October...

Valium is needed in the MOD thread currently - some dire output particularly as we go towards the New Year (against all SSW beliefs)/

MetO latest is a bit of a downgrade today (couldn't get any more bullish for cold in the New Year over the last couple of updates) and even so they haven't been that accurate over the last month and have had little confidence, so of course the odd poster in the MAD thread has almost had a breakdown!...:)

absolutely spot on...

Let's be honest since late October/early November the outlooks from them have been relatively poor with little confidence, the recent updates re: cold and easterly winds were about bullish as they get so I found that a bit surprising to be honest even with the strat developments...plenty of time maybe for them to 'firm' up on things as we head into the New Year...

What a load of rubbish...they've covered all bases there then. Seriously these MetO updates have been worthless since early November!

This event changed the way I looked at easterlies forever...I live in Burnham and we were cut off for 2 days and a snow plough eventually got through, but the main road into town was just surreal like one of those scenes you see in the Alps once a road is cleared with snow piled up either side 8/9 feet tall. There was a lorry stuck on our notorious 'Burnham bends' and on the eastern side the snow drifted right up to the freight and you could get up on it, I still have some archives from that winter which gives an idea of what it was like here on the Essex coast. We had about 12 inches or so of level snow and drifting in areas to 6/7 feet. The icicles on my parents conservatory were up to 3 feet in length (this picture taken around the 20th when we had a slight thaw) - snow remained in ditches up until April!

Yes some over excitement on the MetO's 30 dayer!!...they haven't been that good so far at predicting cold this late Autumn/early Winter, the spell largely between mid-November to early December when they were predicting 'colder than average temperatures and short lived mild spells' over a number of updates never came to fruition...so maybe they're basing the latest updates on the impending SSW?

It's practically the same...bar the odd changed word, still very positive from the MetO as said, let's hope they're in the ball park.

To be honest you won't get a more positive cold outlook from the MetO than that at a certain range!...about as bullish as they get, doesn't mean it will happen though so fingers crossed!

Probably 2010 and that was down to inversion cold (slight fog/mist) and most of the snow had thawed...since then a big zilch!

Have to admit I'm seeing very little to be excited about currently in the models, Xmas day was the focal point a day or so back in the MOD thread with the chance of a northerly or north westerly and some chilly conditions but it looks like that's turning into more of a westerly (Pm air) on the ecm 12z which is being more progressive. The odd poster mentioning we might stand a chance of a frost on the big day lol!...talk about lowering the bar.

Agree...probably in April, don't hang your hat on what the MetO are saying into the New Year!

more or less...running through the ecm 12z's (as I have been doing of the last week or so and the post day 10 potential) doesn't look good in fact we're really treading water and getting nowhere currently. A brief mid-Atlantic height rise just before Xmas and shifts southwards... A frost is possible lol! we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Have they been bullish about anything so far this late Autumn/Winter?...strikes me they have little confidence whether cold or mild.

January 2013 although as we know had cold spell mid-month for near on 2 weeks it started mild and finished very mild and overall the month was close to the 1981-2010 series...so not a stand out cold month!

Exactly...signals into the New Year look better for cold than mild but I wouldn't hang your hat on every word they state!

Nice morning some sun and a David Jason touch of frost (still waiting for a first relatively hard air frost) got down to 2.9c this morning, anyway a lot better than yesterday. As for Xmas and a white one - forget it!, William Hill must have now lengthened the odds to 5-1

Heights building to the north towards the arctic from the heights over the country, I think that would look promising going forwards (if we ever got near to what that's showing on the 06z)

Here on the coast probable outcome from that would be more dull uninteresting weather - I miss the bright crisp frost persisting days!

You sound confident...severe cold in January 80%!!! we have to wait and see if we have a displacement or split of the vortex, personally I'm a lot less confident than you are. Saying that it's hasn't been since 2009/10 in my neck of the woods and probably in general we last experienced a cold end to the year into the New Year, surely that has to change at some point...maybe this is the time?

Check temps on the rise here on the Essex coast, now up to 3c - no chance of anything but cold rain, I'd temper your hopes people...

Not expecting anything of note...might see a bit of graupel at best, certainly feels cold out there, 2c currently.

Personally feel the ecm 12z was fairly poor...just one low after the other. No raging jet stream but still development coming off the Eastern Seaboard which I was hoping to see less of or even lows not developing as much towards Greenland. After an upgrade yesterday on the 12z I was hoping for better...

Don't mean to pee on your bonfire but the Met 30 day outlooks haven't been hugely correct from late October onwards particularly for the period early November to early December when they forecast colder than normal temperatures and short lived milder spells...hopefully they'll be correct in their recent updates!