Froze were the Days

jamstec performance since 2013-14 has been mixed based on 1st Nov winter seasonal forecasts: 2017/18: Partly Correct 2016/17: Correct 2015/16: Wrong 2014/15 Partly correct 2013/14: Wrong

Not the first time the JAMSTEC has flipped...have little faith in that model (refer back to late October/November in the winter 2018/18 thread for more info).

It will be memorable but for the wrong reasons...it will become known as the 'Brexit winter', a lot of expectation, hot air without much happening!

You don't see the full picture here though...no doubt a primary low to the north west towards Iceland and yet another feature brewing from off the Eastern Seaboard so I'm not sure that digging trough will change the pattern that much.

The 1 in 7 stats for SSW displacement came from a poster (forget who) the other day with those thumbnails showing the northern hemisphere temp anomalies - correct me if I'm wrong but 1 of those winters was near normal temperature wise in this part of the world thereafter not mild and anyway they could hide a multitude of events from short cold snaps and longer mild spells...so maybe 1 1/2 to 5 1/2/ What years were they?

I'm not ignoring any signals towards the future towards post Xmas, what I'm referring to is the ecm 12z's like to like at day 10 (which I've been looking at for the last 5/6 days)...presently we don't seem to be getting anywhere but what I here is typical of moderate el nino conditions and more of a back loaded winter is anticipated. Just discussing what I see currently on the 12's...

How many times have we heard this over the last few days?...in another day or so's time at post day 10 you'll probably see another low pressure barrelling from off the Eastern Seaboard south of Greenland. Potential looked 'good' post at what we're seeing now at 198z...but hasn't come to fruition thereafter!

No frost here surprise surprise!...slight cloud cover and a minima of 3.9c overnight - only once this Autumn/Winter have I woken up to a slight ground frost! Looking forward to the snow on Xmas day Tom!...no chance you little tease!

Sorry but in the south/south east there hasn't been a disappointing summer since the Olympic year 2012...always warmer than average, okay we might get the odd more unsettled/somewhat cooler month which springs up occasionally but nothing in comparison to decades gone by. So many above average CET months of recent years you lose track!

Post day 10 ecm 12z and feels like we haven't moved on at all since the last day or so...low pressure close to the UK and another on the same latitude west.

I think that's the word so far that has reflected late Autumn and early winter on the models - 'potential'

I very much doubt it unless your thinking more with heart than head and looking towards Xmas - I've been watching the ecm 12z's and comparing like to like for the last few days - we're not getting anywhere...

Good job you haven't based it on the new GFS para model - horrendous! - odds will have gone up to 100-1 and up probably 5-1 at William Hill BBC week ahead forecast as ever very underwhelming but to be honest over the last couple of days has hardly ever looked like a wintery nirvana, going as low as 5-6c by Thursday/Friday which is laughable but at least it looks like being dry! (crumbs of comfort), I remember a brief easterly at the beginning of November back in the 90's and temps got no higher than 5c!

Certainly better than the GFSp 12z which is horrendous...comparing like to like on the ecm 12's I just don't feel like we're getting anywhere after day 10 onwards - slightly southerly tracking jet stream but with low pressure continually near the country or others developing to our west so I feel we're getting no where fast looking into the longer term.

I'd take it whether when ever it and if it happens as long as it's before February!...optimal time would be late December or early January, have to keep fingers crossed as without one we really struggle to get any noteworthy cold air to our shores and even then a 2 in 3 chance but certainly better than zilch which seems to be happening currently. Interestingly the last time our part of the world even had a cold or just a frosty end to the Year into the New Year was way back in 2009/10...since then nadda!!

Well the 0z ECM looks better in the shorter to medium term with some frontal battles and possibly snowy events for some and cold hanging around till' next weekend but in the longer term post day 10 looks worse...those depressions keep on coming!

Amazing how most in the south east today managed a max of 11c+ in a modified Pm air mass!...a few decades ago this would never of happened, warmer SST's etc. must being play a part.

That confirms what I thought without looking at my records Tom which I've been keeping since 1983 - over the last few decades there is certainly some truth behind this!...and going by the 1st week of this month which looks like it will be close to (at best) but probably above but by how much? doesn't bode that well but in general many mild winter months since the late 90's. Would be interesting also to see how many winter months have gone from mild or mildish followd by a cold month? (not just December mild) ...by the way have you got Feb 85 and 86 swapped? 86 was the sub month.

Potential there again after ecm day 10 (like a stuck needle)...seen charts like that before go cold shortly after BUT again the fly in the ointment as another developing depression off the Eastern Seaboard (relentless).

Had this debate the other day...you've forgotten 2009 and to a degree last year (in instances), January has been a pee poor month since 2013 in general. The straw I'm clutching at currently is we see no raging jet or Greenland PV but there's always time for that too to change!

Sadly been the story in general of the last few winters or so...

ECM 12z the other day looked 'primed' after day 10, a day or so later not much difference. Can't help feeling this will be a December with low pressure never far away but strangely cold never far away either, so be prepared for one long tease.

Jeez! just popped into the MAD thread...UKMO is now not very good at a certain range for our part of the world as of course it's not showing what they want and yes GEM is the best model at a certain range (currently showing colder conditions)...laughable at times!

Nice to see the sun out today though it's being accompanied by a blustery westerly breeze - but STILL effin' mild!!!!!! 11c currently, at least it looks like next week we'll see more seasonal and dare say it slightly below temperatures. By the way totally agree with TomSE12 about the white xmas odds!...ridiculously short.

Well over the last decade we've probably had cold and snow in December as much as January - 2009 (2 snowy episodes), 2010 and even last year provided small events around the country. January over the last 10 years has been relatively been poor, 2010 and 2013 standout but not much else. In days gone by yes if a cold winter was to unfold this generally happened after Xmas - in my lifetime largely 1981/82 and 2010/11 the exceptions