Froze were the Days

I don't think he's ever written the Netweather winter forecast as far as I know but did his own personal LRF's (maybe somebody can enlighten me)...people come and go and have a life away from a computer.

Have to say that looks remarkably like the German global model was forecasting for this winter...and out of all the seasonal models was one of the least favourable for cold, hope it just doesn't come to fruition.

Yes - he wasn't old, 40's maybe early 50's...I liked his forecasts without having that cold bias.

Yep!...mean of 9.2C here over the first 5 days which has to be at near 3C above normal (not sure what the mean figure here is at the start of December in the South East)...big difference I believe between areas further north and the south/south east over the last few months. CET has come out near normal for September/October but certainly felt mild/warm here, can't ever remember going around in a sleeveless top so much in October.

Ridiculously mild start to December here, temperature didn't get below 11c last night!! - looks like this way for the next couple of days until colder conditions next week but nothing noteworthy (a decent frost would be a start). Uphill struggle already to get that CET back down to near normal...well we're hearing promise for this winter which generally seems to be regarded as now a back loaded if not January/February affair...but before now there were a number on here believing this month was generally going to be cold...hhmmm

Stacks of potential from day 10 onwards on the ECM 12z...but haven't we been saying that bit too much over the last couple of weeks?

Prefer this run as low pressure develops further east into the Med and uppers look slightly colder on this 06z run...just hope it doesn't break down in time for Xmas, history tells us it generally does.

First white stuff on the ground (frost) I've experienced this Autumn / early Winter...about time really!

and from the biggest mild ramper the Beeb has to offer!...tears on his pillow tonight

Believe that GFS 12z at your peril!...been here before.

Absolute bilge like outside, prays to the Gods winter won't continue this way...certainly will need the Vitamin D top up if it does.

I don't even bother looking at them any more...they've been all over the place from mid-Autumn to now so I wouldn't get hung up them.

Strikes me this winter will be similar to last then if we're talking close to the 1981-2010 series (slightly colder up north) and colder as we move into February - in fact like a few online sites are currently predicting and a fair few global long range models... Thanks to TWS for his hard effort he has put into this...

6.4c for me please, generally fairly mild.

Well that's true but...they did say they generally had not much confidence and as we all know Atlantic conditions on a prevailing jet stream is easier 'to pin down' and to forecast into the foreseeable than cold/blocked conditions!

Still waiting to wake up to a frost, air or ground this Autumn!...3.3c minima here overnight but just damp[ and misty

I hear similar quotes like this most winters...all this does is narrow the window of opportunity of getting decent cold to our shores further to near a month and half to 2 month period, as for a major SSW I'd be surprised to see 2 winters in a row.

Doesn't take a lot for our weather to go back to it's unsettled, wet and mild winter default state whatever long range forecast models are saying...whether it's west QBO or El Nino, a revitalised vortex near Greenland or just a cow trumping too much in a field.

Yes folks we've entered the season of cloud and rain and wind - oh joy!...I wonder how a few are feeling that have put out a cold winter long range forecast?...the omens aren't looking good as we enter winter proper!

Just one man's view - doesn't bother me, more seasonal models are going for a colder than average one rather than milder particularly back loaded it now seems.

We've known this for months...weak to moderate El Nino has been on the cards as well (possible Modoki), I'm sure Chris has other reasons but maybe it's the recent resurgence to that dreaded SW/NE dreaded jet showing up at precisely when winter starts has made him suggest this... I'll be surprised if this winter is mild, with a raging jet and a constant conveyor belt of depressions similar to 2013/14 but it is the British Isles.

Got that frost at last - nice and crisp taking the dog for a walk last night, unfortunately didn't see any white stuff on the lawn this morning (haven't experienced once this autumn)...and it was just damp dull and miserable!

Our first ground frost of Autumn!! - got down to 0.7c early this morning before cloud cover came over.

Directweather (I think) as I've seen him make one also very similar...always posting on YouTube and yes he is American, posted to him a few weeks back and reckons we're going to have a very cold winter.

Usually right at the end of November...so just over a week away (not sure who is doing it this week, sometimes not just one person).