Froze were the Days

Strong heights to the east, primary low to the north (though filling) - general outcome to move north east, based on experience and a big 'if' the synoptics looked anything like this come Sunday which will no doubt change by then. So all conjecture

Nope that won't happen...very likely to move NNE to the west of Scotland but still pretty windy.

Well Mild easterlies will be on the agenda then...unless we get a rapid cool down of the continent

JAMSTEC going for cold in western Europe (at the moment)...their forecast for last winter wasn't bad.

anyway what does seasonal mean 2nd half of October?, wind and some rain or are we talking about temperatures dropping (everywhere) to where they should be...late Octobers of recent years (Halloween period) have been mild if not warm, I think last year was cooler though.

I wan't talking about the correlation between the weather now and what might happen in the winter more the fact the pattern hasn't changed much since May (a slight shift southwards of heights since early August) but that's about it. Looking for a big cool down on the continent in the month ahead... At a certain latitude the Atlantic has been quite active this summer/early autumn...60/65 degrees or so

Nothing untoward? not sure how many October's you have experienced...Well we'll see but the country and particularly the south and south east seem continually (other than the odd day) tends to be stuck in warm continental or tropical maritime air a fair percentage of the time. As you say looking to become more unsettled mid-month but I wonder if that will result in colder conditions or as we all know 'near normal temperatures'.

really!?!...what makes you believe that?

God! watching the ECM model (last few months really) of late is depressing, in general just the same theme occurring with slight variations - high pressure prevalent on the continent (to the south and east) and now an ever present area of high pressure near Eastern Europe/Western Russia which basically acts as a buffer for the jet to run on a ssw/nne or sw/ne line. Coldest scenarios tend to occur when we do get a westerly with a slight ridge of high pressure to our south west and a brief Pm air mass from a north westerly or westerly. If this continues for any length of time it's going take something to cool the nearby continent down. All in all real desperate stuff...please please let there be more of a pattern change.

Never seen such a length of warm weather for so long going by the gfs 12z...it just goes on and on, if that is anywhere near the mark for the next fortnight then this October will be very warm heading towards record breaking.

Another warm sunny day to add to the many this year...which wreaks of global warming.

CFS ain't worth a jot!, I should know I've followed it to the precursor of the last couple of winters...

Everybody is entitled to their own opinion or produce their own forecast but watched some of this and struck me as not going into anything in detail...actually spoke to him on you tube and his reasoning for a very cold UK winter coming up and said 'when the NE States have a cold winter the UK generally does to'...well of recent years with the warm eastern seaboard the opposite has occurred (remember 2013/14 winter with the raging Polar Vortex? and severe weather over Canada/NE States, was it cold here?...nope, flooding and very mild what I remember). So basically binned what he said...

11.8c for me...

Come on really...CFSV2, I followed this model very closely last autumn and it was showing some stonkers for December and January (at times) and closer to the hour we know what happened

It won't happen certainly not at those speeds, the amount of times GFS has over done a low in the last few years or so only to climb down. Not saying we won't get a low deepening close to the UK but be very surprised if this model has a handle on things...let's see what the ECM 12z says. To answer my own question (just seen the ECM) and says nope!

Looks ghastly in the south if early autumn warmth is not your thing on the ecm, high pressure just does not want to give up the ghost on the near continent.

Can't remember too many times of recent years that these type storms which have developed from southerly latitudes have impacted that greatly on these isles in regards to high wind and heavy rainfall (well certainly towards the south)...always seems to suck up very warm air as being the most noteworthy point...all I can say is yuck!

Good God!...don't look at the ECM 0z if your not a fan or early Autumn heat, development of a bloody tropical storm interacting with the jet stream causing that!

Sadly your correct and it's been going on for years and by and large it always James bloody Madden...

No excessive heat...

Well it's been better then August in recent years and in my mind September is partly 'late summer' but after months of warm anomalies (August less so) a change wouldn't be a bad thing. Also in my mind with the affects of Global Warming there looks like plenty more years ahead with ever growing heat...some cool dry weather in the next month or so will do me a treat. Very warm SST's and a warm continent I can't see anything cold or even cool on the agenda in the foreseeable sadly.

So what ever happened to the cool westerly Pm air stream that was forecast for more than a few ECM runs in approximately 5/6 days time and lasting to the end of the run?...disappeared that's what, and all we have now is the dratted heights to the south (which never seem far away) continuing the warmth in at least the south...when will this hell end and some proper cool air get mixed into the continent?

MetO keep churning out that England has experienced it's hottest summer, CET records has shown it's only been the 5th warmest!! Really surprised nobody on this site has mentioned this, Meto pushing it's own agenda as the weather has been so much in the news this summer?

Sorry for being thick here but MetO are saying 'hottest' since records began (1910) for England, surely the Central England Temperature is at odds with this?...as mentioned 5th warmest summer on record from June to August. What's the difference between 'stats and CET England temperature records'? 'England's average temperatures narrowly beat those seen in 1976' - really!?!, after this August I find that hard to believe. 17.2 c average for England over the summer, but there have been hotter and that's what's mystifying me.