Froze were the Days

Yet another non- news story about the weather from the Express to add to the many and the annual rubbish being spouted by James Madden. (nothing changes) 'Bookmaker Ladbrokes has slashed the odds from 4/1 to 6/4 on this winter turning into the coldest on record.' - they might know about sport but totally clueless about the weather - what ridiculously short odds on that happening!!!...they obviously think Madden is an expert.

Correct with the secondary low...that's what a few models predicted yesterday, no sliding potential with that!

GFS again in FI wants to bring the Atlantic bulldozer through but with it struggling so much at less than a week away these lo-res finishes should be taken with a huge dose of salt (remember the consistent very cold scenarios of a few days ago played out in FI)?...

Still waiting for my 1st frost of the Autumn...never mind 'hunting' for snow!

Sorry to change the subject but has anybody heard from Frosty and Ian Pannell? (always look forward to his LRF's)

Obviously a quiet day on the news front so the Express go overboard once more just as we have some chilly weather - big deal!

As per the last month really...

Secondary low down to the Azores (if it occurs) won't help matters @216z - just as the primary was sliding... Doesn't show this feature on the 12z

Just purely because it's November and you need really good cold synoptics for widespread low level snow...I fancy the mood might have been different if we were heading into the New Year...should be a fascinating winter for at least model watching.

Both ecm and gfs 0z don't look great near day 10...If that was to happen I think you can say goodbye to the heights to the north.

Personally feel they're all over the place with their 16-30 dayer of recent times - strikes me as if they have little confidence...

or West based QBO (high pressure closer to Greenland/Labrador sea) and we're on the periphery of cold air at times and Europe largely milder...who knows?

Yep nice sensible post there Sunnijim...think of recent winters as you mentioned that just shoot past week after week and before you know it we're heading into late January still hoping. Synoptics, long range forecasts and low solar minima are all adding to far better prospects this time round...

Yes anything is possible in lo-resolution particularly with the GFS...outlandish to say the least.

Updated JAMSTEC winter forecast for 2018/19...and they haven't backed down, still going for a colder one in NW Europe (infact just our tiny Isle and a part of Norway)

1981/82 from Dec to mid-Jan was undoubtedly colder and snowier than 2009/10!...sad that both in 81 and 2010 most of the snow and decent cold synoptics had passed...time for one to really get going a few days before Xmas me thinks!

Yes very cold chart by 300z...not sure how much credence the 6z and 18z runs have though

Well the CET shows something different than 'warm to very mild this Autumn' - near normal in fact but must admit if you live in the south east most of October was short sleeved weather so must be off-set by a colder north!...I too a bit sceptical we'll see anything wintry in the coming weeks (maybe frosty) certainly down south but the bigger picture does look encouraging for this winter and that of not being one of experiencing continuous low pressure moving sw to ne and largely being trapped in Tm air masses a good deal of the time.

You certainly have this thing going on with Autumn / early Winter 1978 - sorry didn't see the posts above!

Hahaha!...a revert to back where we were a week or so ago then, these chop and changing updates doesn't fill one with confidence

Well the Met haven't been over the last month...check what they were saying a fortnight ago for the upcoming period, temps largely normal to colder than average and short lived milder interludes (or words to that effect).

I've given up following the 6z and 18z GFS it's just too draining and not surprising 6z op run throws a spanner in the works (looking at posts) during the latter part of the run...doesn't the 0z and 12z have better verification rates? Saying that though the way the weather has been since May it wouldn't at all be surprising to see the 1st half of this month blighted with mild sse/se winds only to move to zonal conditions as we head towards winter proper

That's why I take these with a pinch of salt... a couple of weeks back they were saying (towards mid-November) largely normal to colder than average temperatures and mild spells will be relatively short lived, has that happened?...no. 'A transition away from the relatively settled weather is possible towards the end of November' - are we in a settled period or look like it in the next week? Even with their super computers forecasting with any accuracy 2/3 weeks down the line isn't that fantastic unless at this time of year we have a roaring jet from west to east and 'typical' Tm to Pm transition type weather...

Noticed this yesterday with the disparity between MeteoGroup (BBC) and the Metoffice, one or two runs starting to show a bit of zonality after a week or so now, seems like we're getting no where presently...as mentioned thank god it's only November!

You can't say that...people can't learn from this. Maybe a ramp/moans thread will soon be open? As I said the next week or so and largely going by the gfs as well as ecm looks very monotonous but there's no raging jet stream which is a positive just a where do we go from here waiting game...