Froze were the Days

Far more marginal towards the south...dolloping of the stuff to low levels further north, big totals in the hills in the north and Scotland (higher elevations).

yep!...ghastly.

I remember at the start of the New Year US forecasters were predicting very mild conditions in the mid-west and the northern states from the impact of the SSW around mid-month onwards - so on that basis they've been about as accurate as what the metO 30 day outlooks have been since late October (not saying they'll continue to be wrong)!...and that's if the above forecast is correct.

Fully agree...looks a bit of a hotch potch from day 7 looks like the model is a bit confused, NW to SE low heights is a consistent feature in a week or so's time.

Yep dry really since Xmas time - but very very boring winter so far, one to forget unless some how this SSW can save us from the tedium!

Talk about misleading - if that came about a snow fest for the midlands, central areas but the south and south east forget it (too much milder air in the circulation from the south) - so that map is incorrect you need more of a 'flatter' sliding area of low pressure or further to the east but probably would turn to snow as the low moves away. (not that scenario has much chance of playing out).

No change really...I wonder if this will eventually head towards the beginning of February for increased likelihood of cold?

1947 - you got the digits around the wrong way ...sadly I'm not seeing too much that wets the appetite in the foreseeable, still to a degree there's mobility and that area of high pressure to our west south west which looks like hanging around for a week or so and some Pm air masses at times but not sure that's of much in our neck of the woods. Hoping we do get a slither of heights between the lows and get some sort of a slider which disrupts the jet but with my untrained eyes I'm still seeing too much energy around the south of Greenland vicinity and a slight trend away from blocking to the north (certainly on the gfs)...interesting model watching coming up.

Not sure if any of these gfs runs are helping out currently in the evolution towards another 7/10 days time we're starting to get big differences in the mid-term. just all a bit of a hodge podge.

approx 174z (on gfs 6z) on the left

Both GFS 0z models and ecm look rather underwhelming again (yes going to use that word) - ecm has potential post day 10 (not as if we haven't been here before this winter) but that all depends if the energy close to Greenland ceases, but if you like the odd Pm flow the outputs might float your boat!

Believe me a day with a max of 6c has never been accepted as a cold day in January and even more so 15 years ago - particularly if you live in the north or east when maxes average out near to 6-7 in January.

Not what I heard the other day from a few on here (I think Mr Sussex included) that GFS should be banned post D10 and that's where we're currently heading on the basis of GFS/(p) being on the money...and hence no expectations from the ecm for another 10+ days going by of a so far disappointing winter but I was maybe hoping for some possible strong ridging as per 192. Maybe the mindset is being fuelled by MetO outlooks?

So GFS is the model to follow (again in FI) although it was last weeks garbage, so going by that nothing worth watching on the ecm for the next 10 days and just seeing if it's reasonably similar to what the gfs is showing?

Well yet again another underwhelming 12z from the ecm - no improvement from 216 to 240 with still low heights near Greenland/Iceland!

Complete lack of any hard frosts (or air frosts) is the main reason for growing lawns, buds coming out etc.

Why people pay so much attention to Exeter updates is beyond me...they've been relatively poor since late October. Anyway aren't you ignoring all the positive signals?

CFS 06z still throwing up the goodies (as per yesterday)

True but as well all know the down welling isn't the same and trop response is more delayed but could last over several weeks or months as they possibly alluded to...so maybe hints of 2013 over again?

About as clear as their 30 day outlooks...possibly colder periods increase but possible mild interludes with no idea if they'll be any similarites to end of Feb 2018 the last SSW which to be honest is fair enough.

Obviously reignited your warm front Tom

Hi Tom, so what scenario does Ian see being played out for the second half of winter?...if not a Greenland High or Scandi high in the foreseeable, a strong Atlantic ridge to Greenland would probably last a few days at most.

Well a bit more in the way of 'blocking' over some recent runs and one or two slider type scenario's but that's the first decent easterly I've seen in the 1 month runs for some time...but something to keep an eye on over the next day or so.

So your not showing the CFS 12z then? which just shows LP piling over the country...the above is about the only time I've seen the CFS show a decent easterly on any 1 month run over the last fortnight or so.

I think your pushing the boat out there a bit, Anglia and Look East said temps at day not much below 5/6c but there was the slightest whisper of an odd wintry shower...