bradymk
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Posts posted by bradymk
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21 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
GFS has it slightly further North, I wonder if this can become something
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UKMO also has it now, not as far north as GFS, will need to wait for the precip charts.
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Icon 12z similar to the GFS 6z with a more organised area of precip running across the south. Very borderline for snow but possible for some.
Something to keep an eye on for the south/south west.
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Sleeting in Cardiff. Some heavier precip looks like it’s about to arrive now, so may get something more exciting on the back edge as it moves through
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Weirdly heaviest snow we’ve had all day is when the radar shows light light blue and hardly anything....
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Each blob has lost its intensity as it’s reached Cardiff.
Looks like it was much heavier in the Vale and Bridgend.A light dusting on cars but not really had the intensity here yet. Looks like the end of this area of precip. Hope the area behind delivers some more.
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Coming down nicely here but very fine flakes. Covering all surfaces now other than main roads.
However can see it starting to lose intensity as it approaching us. The yellows turning to greens etc. The Vale of Glamorgan looks like the area holding best intensity while being east enough to avoid less cold air.
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9 minutes ago, Gez79 said:
First time I’ve ever heard snow hitting a window!!! Big flakes coming down with a hail mixture
Must be close to a switch to freezing rain. If it does become freezing rain, that could become nasty down there on top of any lying snow too.
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29 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Cardiff and Barry could be the sweet spot today lol.
Yes potentially. Bridgend would be my punt.
Fine flakes and light again now, not starting to accumulate yet other than on car roofs etc.
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Get in there! Snowing in Cardiff, big flakes.
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Just now, Ian Price said:
Yes there is zero from the sky here!! Sky looks cool though!
Great pic Ian! Shame nothing is falling from it yet for you.
We have a narrow band of yellow/green approaching Cardiff now, will be first test to see if evaporating mid air here.
Main band still approaching nicely.
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3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:
just had a message from a mate in St Davids. No snow plenty of rain
That’s a shame! My family in Pembrokeshire have a dusting so far from the first band. Hopefully the band about to hit will deliver more for Pembs. Although freezing rain possible in a hour or two.
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I don’t think we can complain so far. Forecast has certainly upgraded overnight and the radar showing why.
Hope we can get something from the outer band first but looking above, sounds like a lot of it is evaporating before hitting a ground.
Main part of the precip about to hit Pembrokeshire now.
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ECM 18z is even faster bringing the front in. 4am to Pembrokeshire now. Arriving at Cardiff at 8am, previously 11am on 12z run...
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4 minutes ago, AlexThe Great said:
Looks as if it is beefing up nicely at the core, if it survives and the rest develops in to heavier ppn is another thing......
Yep agree: Looking good at the moment but we know how quickly a front can fizzle out once it hits the cold. Fingers crossed! It’s faster then forecast at the moment.
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ECM probably closest to current radar. Not surprising after the last event and it also is the model with it further east and arriving early morning (5/6am into south west)
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3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:
Despite tonight's output, worth remembering ecm ensembles still favoured MLB or HLB from D10 onwards. Will it be the same tonight?
At this range too, MLB’s showing at Day 10 in the Ens could easily be positioned more favourably for us nearer the time. Which as we know can vastly change surface conditions.
Day 10 on GEM could be very different for example if that block was further west come t+0
Hoping the EC Ens still hold some promise longer term
In the here and now, also hoping the front makes it to Cardiff tomorrow to see some snow out of this spell!
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32 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Fingers crossed mate, any charts?
Here you go mate. Ye fingers crossed, as Matt says very much a nowcast event. The precip comes in earlier on ECM which I think would be better for us overall.
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Poorer output this evening for a quicker return to any cold. A fairly large change from UKMO too from earlier runs.
GEFS showing very mild and mostly dry conditions after Day 6/7. Would be nice to at least stay dry if we can’t get the cold. Clear trend to higher temps after day 6/7 when comparing to the ENS yesterday.
Marco (Met) tweeted earlier today that they are expecting it to turn colder from the east as early as perhaps next Friday. Seems a long way away from that in tonight’s output but who knows...
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ECM an upgrade on this mornings run.
Front comes in early to the south west (around 5am), light at first. It then moves in for most of Wales, reaching a line of Cardiff to Denbigh around 11am. Turns heavy in the west but also more marginal around 10am-midday. Heavy Precipitation then transfers east, crossing all areas but starting to ease as it does so.
Widely 1-3cm, perhaps a little more on higher ground in the mid and west. Hardly St Davids Day 2018, but still some snow to end the cold spell for most.
Very cold and very dry here again this evening. Temp -1c DP -6c, perfect conditions the last few days for allowing snow to settle quickly if it does happen and its not sleet!!-
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After a good 00z set, just to show that the uncertainty is still high for tomorrow, the short range models Arome, Arpege, Harmonie and ICON have all downgraded compared to 00z outputs. GFS not great too.
All part of the rollercoaster as normal and I'm sure what actually happens will still be slightly different to the models anyway. UKV looks good though as per Matts post. ^
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Taken some snapshots of tomorrow from almost all the models. I would say overall an upgrade for tomorrow this morning compared to yesterday.
All vary the position of precip and intensity. Really hoping something like ICON or Arome come off with a good snow event for many of us to finish the cold spell.
ICON
Arpege
HARMONIE
AROME
GFS
EURO4
ECM
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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Surely it won't all die out.
Probably for most areas. It has unfortunately been doing that all day so far, but this bit now has made it closer to land. You never know but very unlikely for us anyway.
Hopefully Pembrokeshire can still catch the end of it later on.
Hoping for some good runs for Saturday from the 12z's but I can see the trend for weaker precipitation becoming stronger.
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29 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:
Nothing down West, this Met Office Warning should be removed
The warning doesn't start until 9pm tonight for down west, running until tomorrow morning so there must be more Precipitation later that the MetO were more concerned about.
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Looking good for Pembrokeshire at the moment, not really losing intensity this and approaching quickly.
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
Keeping an eye on this little feature for Friday daytime. I saw it first on the 6z GFS but now the 12z GFS, UKMO and ICON all have a similar feature.
Real knife edge stuff but potential for something a bit more wintry on Friday for parts of Wales