bradymk
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Posts posted by bradymk
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If we get to this point on Wednesday that the 12z ECM is showing, I think we'll see a good snow event at the end of next week.
Comparing that to yesterdays 12z - less bowling ball style low, more heights to our north west and the low further west of the UK.
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Latest Icon has the snow across east Wales late Saturday night. Would give a covering before the very cold easterly feed sets in. Very uncertain this and how west it comes though.
Following this, as others have touched on above, Wales isn't the main focus of precipitation given the wind direction for the following days but very cold. However can't rule out showers in the east when the easterly wind is at its strongest.
Thursday onwards, we then watch with interest. Fingers crossed the cold block puts up a good fight.
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As others have talked about above, If I could ever bank a model run, it would be this mornings ECM.
It is unbelievable for Wales - a very cold, mainly dry easterly Sunday-Wednesday.
Then low pressure approaches from the SW and crosses the south of the UK, but we also manage to stay in the cold and the snow is pretty extreme as others have said above.
Snow depth chart attached. And also the generated forecast for Cardiff from ECM run.
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Out of the two models that have updated so far, Arpege definitely takes it!! Not that ICON is terrible by any means. Behind the sofa now for the next two...
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19 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:
Well wasn’t I wrong! Didn’t think it was going to be snowing in Cardiff today. Settling on cars, grass and roofs for now. I have a bit of elevation how’s the rest of Cardiff doing?
I’m in the Heath and it has settled on the grass, cars and roofs too, particular ones where exposed to wind. However not accumulating any more than what they have now.
Still snowing in though but small flakes again now. 0.7c
Nothing crazy but a very enjoyable day either way!
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Snowing nicely in north Cardiff. Walking by Llanishen/Thornhill. Covering grass and roofs.
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Getting heavier but tiny flakes in Cardiff. Melting instantly on impact with ground.
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Snowing in Heath, Cardiff
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1.7c now, touch and go for lower Cardiff!!
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Temp rising here. 1.5c now in Cardiff, hope it doesn’t go to high but DP’s are low.
Snow at Caswell in Swansea is encouraging for snow here.
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Would be nice @keithlucky as last week I missed it falling when it came through quicker than expected.
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Yes unfortunately I can’t see any accumulations below 100m today but hope we all see falling snow either way. Some heavy stuff moving in to west Pembs now.
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2 minutes ago, Pembs458 said:
I can confirm what is falling here is snow, but very light currently.
Nice. It would seem much more than that if you were going off the radar, perhaps signs that not everything reaching the ground.
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38 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:
I agree, seems like fairly light precipitation with sleet/snow turning gradually to rain on low ground as the day progresses. Thats going by the ECM at least. Might be why the Met Office have not issued a snow warning for tomorrow because while there may be snow falling its unlikely to accumilate away from hills.
Agree! All the warnings are impact assessed and even though it’s uncertain still, even the best case sees temporary or limited accumulations.
I’m not too fussed though with that, would be nice to see some falling snow in the daytime at least, accumulation or not.
In hindsight, the Met were a little off with their warning today too in regards to Wales but a very difficult forecast.
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2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
BBC saying snow only on high ground lol. I'll just look out the window tomorrow.
Yes potentially for accumulations. If the front comes in as per ECM though, I think we’ll both see falling snow at least tomorrow. Light mainly. Let’s hope it’s right and harmonie. Arome in same camp.
Not expecting any accumulation in Cardiff.
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Latest ECM has precipitation coming into Pembrokeshire at 10am, falling as snow away from the immediate coast.
It then moves across most of South Wales, again snow away from immediate coasts.
1-3cm across most of South Wales. Milder air creeping in later in day turning precip back to rain in Pembrokeshire and coastal south.
All models showing different solutions, ECM and Harmonie look the best for us all. Euro4 and UKV have nothing but they have both been poor recently.
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MetOffice long rate update is the best it has been for ages that’s for sure, definitely the most encouraging part of today.
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It’s certainly further north than most of the models are showing it to be at this time.
Same as that @A Frayed Knot, going to wait and see what happens this weekend and next week. Chances of snow for most sometime between tomorrow and Tuesday and that’s before what happens end of next week
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This also from Matt H - EC ENS Snowfall for Saturday.
This is an average of all 51 EC Ensemble members I believe, so a strong signal for significant snowfall for Saturday for mid and north wales in particular. I would expect a MetO warning at 11 given only less than 48 hours away
Less chance say beacons south at the moment of a significant snowfall (EC still shows 3-5cm for valleys) but certainly time for changes there.
Either way pretty chuffed we’re talking about a potentially good snow event again within a week!
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Some light showers about this evening. One just brushed west of Cardiff through Dinas Powys. -0.5c here.
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23 minutes ago, snowy36 said:
We'll find out how bad the Euro4 model is. For a good few runs yesterday and the 0z it was saying snow then it dropped it this morning but its back in the 12z. I dont think it has a chance and its on a island with itself with this. I think its been very poor this winter.
Agree Snowy, its been poor for a while. However I've noticed in the last few days that the rainfall/snowfall parameter on WeatherOnline shows different to what other websites showing Euro4 have.
For example - Look at this from Weather.Us, same run, same time as above. (The chart is for 3h total snowfall). It shows some light snow in inland higher areas which will be from when the precipitation first comes in tomorrow but nothing extensive like the WeatherOnline chart.
Therefore I think disregard the WeatherOnline one at the moment and use https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/wales/significant-weather/20210126-0300z.html
Either way - tomorrow I think expect some light snow or sleet for areas inland further east as the precipitation first comes into the colder air (7am ish). This turning to rain as the milder upper air then filters in. BBC has sleet for Cardiff at 7-9am and 1/2c before milder and all rain later.
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Light flurries in the air here. Must be catching the tail end of the bits on radar!
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@A Frayed Knot looks like the front may survive enough to reach you in Chepstow for some last hoorah snow!
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Yep 100% agree! Good weekend and happy the majority of us got a covering.
Onto the next one, hopefully next weekend if we’re lucky long way to go!!
The last snow shower has left it quite wet here, ice definitely going to be an issue in the morning.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Comparing ECM 120 to ydays 144 is a lovely sight. Better wedge to our north west, low less of a bowling ball and further west. Regardless of what follows on this run, good to see the ECM moving in this direction as Wednesday/Thurs has crept a day closer on the modelling.