bradymk

120 ECM best chart of the 12z's by far

GEM goes with a strong scandi high and easterly feed moving in at 240, a long way out but improvement compared to GFS and UKMO, hopefully ECM follows. For those who say it is not fully out yet, http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=240 Also, JMA best run of the 12z in terms of the northerly.

Yes Nick not much of a middle ground, either going to be cold easterly feed or a mild SW feed. We did have good support from the ENS this morning for the Scandi high and easterly feed post day 10 so lets hope for a similar story this evening but the northerly that once looked v potent now looks a glance for the majority of the UK but still cold enough for snow showers in most parts although it will be mainly dry. All part of the fun of this weather model business though, plenty more of this to come until March

The ECM, I think is toying with the right idea however I think the 00z was a bit fast with the solution so don't be surprised to see the easterly pushed back a bit. The ENS supported an easterly this morning, however not as early as was shown on the det. The ECM 00z det was very cold at the end for central England, Birmingham max temp on the 11th only -3c and overcast, brrr.

How can these two be so different at 84 hours? GFS and NAM

Or it would just be dry?

Yep, the difference between forum weather watching and the reality of a professional organisation who would be jumped on by the media. I think a Scandi High is a real possibility but the question is, how far north will any possible high get. We could have cool continental flow, southerly or something a lot colder. Plenty of options, no sign of anything zonal. Just came across the latest KMA ensemble for month ahead

I would sort of agree/disagree with the the UKMO 00z analysis. I agree with maybe the bias of ECM as BA says above, every model has a bias, and ECM can over-amplify sometimes, like it did a few weeks ago so that may be one reason for favouring UKMO-GM and Mogreps however the ECM is best performer from the last week by far at the moment with GFS being trash and UKMO-GM hasnt been at its best and so unless it changes on the 12z, personally, i would still stick with ECM for now. Not too sure on the GEM support bit though, it still looks out on its own? They are the pro's though and i can sit here on this forum and disagree/agree for a bit of fun and it won't matter as i am not the one making the public forecast which matters to millions of people and businesses. Keep us updated Ian, you do a great job and add to the extra excitement of the forum

No wrong, remember GFS has moved across to "ECM solution" the last few runs. So what you say is completely wrong. They might be favouring GFS now, but thats after it has already changed towards ECM.

You sure? LP in Atlantic is digging quite a way south but not too sure if im being a bit optimistic. Its a hell of a lot better than GFS 144 chart.

Just for a bit of fun, the CFS daily has got its own take on the cold. Extends the cold a lot longer with height rises to the N & NE. Only a bit of fun though http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10 Great run from ECM, as Steve says above, its that shortwave that needs watching. Still to many disagreements upstream to be confident of any outlook however i'd rather have the ECM on our side than the GFS!!

I agree but this morning ENS were better with bringing the cold further south and it lasted longer but tonight has decreased the chance of that for at least the south of the UK. Plenty of time for change like you say, still a long way out and i still think we will see quite a potent but brief northerly around the 6/7th but followed by another MLB.

pretty poor ECM ensembles this evening unfortunately. I know the mean etc will be deviated by two different outcomes but it does show the northerly just being a quick snap and thats if the northerly even reaches S UK before the high moves in. Will have to wait till the morning to see what the 00z suite says but a step in the wrong direction. Difference between ECM ENS and GEFS at 240

I would still say the ECM had a better pattern at day 10

No one was ever expecting anything in that timeframe though? The high has been forecast to drift back over the UK for a good few days so not really sure of your point? I know FI isn't reliable, but that's where the potential lies, not in the 5 day timeframe, so we have no other choice than to look at FI at the moment for a more significant cold spell?

For members who aren't really seeing the difference with this run, view it in northern hemisphere rather than just europe as then you will be able to see the changes upstream and W of Greenland Good point Frosty, if everyone didn't follow each op run things would be a bit calmer in here at times. But nothing like a good pub run!

No comments probably because not much change expected yet in the run. However upstream looks much better on 18z. Heights building to the W of Greenland.

Not if used correctly. Yes the daily run on meteociel which goes out to 9 months is rubbish i agree but the CFS is still one of the best longer range models if used correctly. The weekly/monthly anomalies i find are very useful if used together with other similar data to try predict the "overall" pattern 2-3 weeks ahead. The CFS is just unfortunately a model that tries to predict for a time period which no model has ever or can predict accurately.

Personally feel ECM 216 is potentially a great chart going forward but a lot of things need to occur before we even get to that stage.....encouraging though. Note the vortex positioned a lot differently to GFS

It's because the GFS has completely failed in the modelling off the low in Eastern US and is now moving in line with the other models. It wanted to bring the low out to the sea which was why GFS had pattern further east than the others.

Keep an eye on that pacific ridge in future runs, Lots of GEFS 12z members were showing this as a potential important feature if you cold as we go into December.

GFS is having an absolute nightmare with the low in USA. No agreement with the other models. Accuweather have been slating it all week.

I believe its the ensembles that are being upgraded

these graphs are just derived from the model output though and are just reflective of the latest model run so if the model run has the wrong pattern, these graphs will be wrong. GFS graphs would show a completely different AO/NAO graph this evening if the 12z run is different to 6z. I may be wrong so someone correct me if I am.

Interesting to see what GFS FI does with Euro low. GFS is liking the idea of the high moving to Scandi with LP over Europe. CFS weekly backing this up too.