bradymk

out to 96h on wetter edit: sorry 72h

A common theme recently from the models has certainly been to overestimate height rises to our NW. As it moves closer to +0, the low heights just seem to not want to move as much as we would like. This aside, looks like turning colder for christmas and after. Milder for boxing day but turning colder again after that. Cool, cold or very cold though?

Improvement from both the GFS & GFS (P), despite the big mess to the north on the GFS, it does in the end bring a potent northerly at the +180 mark for a time. Consistency from the parallel with another potent northerly, some quite severe weather possible with that low moving southwards 27th/28th. Is it time to start looking for some WAA towards the north/north east maybe?

Quite a big warming at the end of the 6z GFS, hopefully this starts to come closer to ECM range next few days.

CFS joining the possible mid/late december fun. (Week 3 chart right, week 4 chart left) Not that i trust this model, just an observation and see if a trend grows. Cold end to the ECM, -6 uppers over the UK with the high to the east having much more influence once again.

ECM 216 a good chart however far out it is, the low heights starting to disappear over Greenland and to our NW with a ridge looking likely to build. Settled before then with frost/fog common and average temps with colder temps for next weekend. Edit: great end to ECM in terms of longer term potential.

Just a quick look at how the models but the GFS in particular really tend to underestimate the influence of a block to our east, such as the one we have had recently. 10 days out (17th November GFS) Positively tilted trough, overestimating the atlantic At 6 days out, it still was underestimating the block with a positively tilted trough. Current Chart - Much stronger high to our east, negatively tilted trough, very different outcomes. Just something to bear in mind when viewing charts days ahead with a situation like this. It is almost always continually corrected westwards as we approach reality. The atlantic barraging through, closer to the time has actually turned into a mainly dry south easterly air flow before a mid lat high builds in to bring an average start to December and much more seasonal than this time last year with plenty of fog & frost for most at times. We await the second part of December with interest.

Brilliant stuff both of you, a good read, cheers and good luck!

Back in sunny pembrokeshire for the weekend, love this place, except its v wet, windy and half the roof of my old school is missing...think they had it rough wednesday.

Ahh that didn't last long, probably a good snowfall over higher ground today though before mild air moves northwards

currently around 100/150m, was sleety mix in city centre but more snow now as I'm on a train heading out of cardiff/higher up

Pretty heavy sleet in cardiff atm, hopefully can get some wet snow before the mild air

The chance of some heavy snowfall for a time this evening across Wales. Some very heavy showers will develop this evening due to deep instability behind the cold front, this will also bring the snow level to low levels later tonight with low thicknesses, with the main precipitation looking to occur around 11pm-1am. Some good quick accumulations of snow likely on higher ground but limited to lower coastal areas. Either way, more rain and wind tomorrow so will be gone before you blink but maybe some fun for a time for most of us.

It is nearly February right? feels like November/early december looking at these charts below as i type from behind the curtains. The issue of the vortex in NE Canada persists once again through all the 12z outputs so far, the story of the winter. Not much to comment on cold wise at the moment but of course, Friday and this weekend is of great concern once again. Lots of rain and combining with high tides again, not pretty. If you're a coldie, think its best to sit, watch and hope for now, and hope you dont get flooded in the meantime!! Anyone else starting to really get fed up with the storms now? although they've been fascinating, feels like the winter has been one big storm. I would add the ECM at around 168 mark (more so last nights 12z) does still interest me and could turn out better but the energy in the N Atlantic looks too much again.

Hail, sleet, snow, rain, everything in this shower hitting Cardiff now

Yes, wouldnt expect much from that area of precip, DP's rising from around -1 to 2/3c for most. Higher ground be ok though. Great hail shower in cardiff earlier.

UKMO modify the raw output i believe. Just like they used to do with NAE. I remember Ian saying in here about modified-NAE and raw-NAE. So probably the raw Euro4 output has been modified.

Wow! ECM 12z ensembles, that is all. That big block to the east is heading nowhere. and big improvement over Greenland/E Canada. Very cold short ens for de bilt. Looking forward to the London set. Doubt UKMO will still change to a colder tune yet, depends on what Mo-greps offers this evening. If we get a 00z set like this though, they may start to take note of something more extended. I honestly thought tonights op was a good reflection of recent ENS runs but its basically a mild outlier tonight, big set of ens.

if you zoom in more to the dp maps I sent, 1c for most of south! And the dew points decrease quite quickly 156/162 timeframe once the low moves through. As you say, probably need a better shape to the low for snow for lowland southern Britain at that point. Although any temp, dp, precip prediction for that timeframe at this range is just a toy as we know.

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Birmingham/long.html Basic forecast for Birmingham using ECM data reinforcing this. ECM DP's here nick for 144/150 (Left to right), brrrrrrrrr

Not so much if we are talking GFS higher res, northern and western hills. This will be coming into higher res Euro4 now anyway.

Wish NCEP would just scrap the GFS low-res!! Pretty good agreement start of next week in terms of a deep low moving SE. Another cold ECM run but we must still be wary of the energy to the NW, will it turn out to be too powerful again. Think it has already been said this morning but a breakdown of the ridge in the pacific may actually help us in this respect. Ps. Nice to see you back to normal service frosty

I don't think it is, maybe the reason for the downbeat attitude in here tonight. The block is very unlikely to win later this week, so don't expect any big changes in this regard. The Atlantic will most likely push through and this isn't a problem as we are looking beyond that right now. Like I said above let's hope we get the amplification and the arctic high, if this happens, it shouldn't matter about the Atlantic pushing through as it may be a short affair

next weekend is not where I'm seeing the potential for cold anyway. The Atlantic has to push through (well doesn't have to) but take a look at the JMA, the Atlantic still pushes through but it's what happens later as heights build to the north. Same with ECM. The amplification later together with the Arctic high is just what we need, the Atlantic needs to go through at one stage, hopefully NW-SE though. I think the reason for all this downbeat attitude tonight in here is because people are expecting the block to win later this week, not going to happen, let's hope for a transient snowfall and then concentrate on what happens later

GFS 18z shows the front on Friday only reaching the far south west before fizzling out as it hits the colder air. This likely to affect the whole outcome of run here. Impressive EC ens, consistency the key now. London plume later should be nice viewing