bradymk

never too wet to stick, bit of a myth. If it doesn't stick it's because the temperature and more so the ground temperature is not low enough. If the ground temperature is close or below freezing, it will stick whether it's wet or not

Looks like showers starting to fade away, just as they have turned to snow here. Typical haha.

Snowing moderately in cardiff city centre now, not going to stick unless temperature drops further but lovely to see

Strange shower, looked heavy on radar but not much fell in the end. Snowflakes in the rain, thats it, but an improvement on earlier. See how on the latest radar picture, the shower literally died over Cardiff and turned into only a light shower.

Huge showers showing up now on radar, colder air still filtering south. Flakes in the rain now in the heavier stuff in the snow shield cardiff.

it is still rain here haha, can you believe it, so annoying, hope the temperature continues to drop.

good to hear, hopefully snow here when it arrives. Hope we get a few more good showers before less cold air arrives later tonight.

its sleet with snow higher ground according to radar (but this is usually just determined by the models rather than observations) A more northerly component to the showers by minute, looks like a big one on way to me in Cardiff, a north/NW wind is much better because its coming from the cold land above rather than coming off the sea so we will see if this shower is more wintry.

im in Cardiff. If i was home in Pembrokeshire, id be excited for sunday.

Lots of showers starting to build up now, just hope its cold enough, will be for some. See the organised streamer across Ireland at the moment thats moving south eastwards. I JUST WANT TO SEE A SNOW FLAKE

hoping this shower thats about to arrive in cardiff is a bit more wintry than so far. Snowing in pontypridd but tends to be almost 2c colder than here at times. damn passed to the north.

Showers still rain in city itself here. Not quite cold enough atm

colder air filtering further south now into south wales, more chance of wet snow/snow in these showers. Short window though before the less cold air arrives.

Big steamer setting up Saturday morning over Carmarthenshire and over Swansea. Keep an eye on this, will change to pembrokeshire later on in the day and into Sunday as winds turn to northerly

Hasn't even properly started yet. Less cold tomorrow before Saturday into Sunday and into next week is the coldest air of the winter and the best chance of snow. If come the end of next week and you still haven't seen snow, then I'll agree with you. Could be a decent snow event Tuesday for wales but we'll have to wait and see. Last night, today and tomorrow was always too marginal. Miss the days of 2010 when everything on the radar picture was snow, even in the sea

I don't see the missed opportunity or the let down this morning. There was never much precipitation forecast especially for the south and not enough cold air in the end before the less cold air moves in for tomorrow. The weekend sees the start of the coldest air of the winter and If by the end of next week you still haven't seen snow, maybe then we can all be disappointed.

well the UKMO, GFS and GEM all showing a great start to the 12z runs. GFS and UKMO both show the shortwave moving south eastwards monday cleanly. GEM develops it more and it stays further north, close to southern britain, very unlikely outcome though i think, better chance is from the possible snow moving south through tuesday. Very cold UKMO 144 chart as winds start to swing more to the North East. GFS different and then moves the high eastwards over us before moving to the east and doing its best to prevent the Atlantic. The atlantic doesn't even make it in during low-res though and the trough disrupts, but don't think the chart will look like that come then anyway. It could be a long cold spell, heres hoping.

The high to the east still holding on as we move into low res on the GFS 12z, energy starting to go under to the west with some trough disruption too at +276

Tonight looks like most of the shower activity will be in the north and north west with scattered showers elsewhere, mainly in the west. Snow in heavier showers at lower levels. Some may push further inland to give local 2cm accumulations to some. The forecast into the weekend from the MetOffice is: Sunshine and wintry showers Friday, mainly rain to low levels. Thereafter, colder northerly winds will bring snow showers to northern parts and windward coasts, but some may push well inland. I WANT TO BE HOME IN PEMBS NOT CARDIFF

As I was saying last night, the beginning of next week looks the most interesting time for snow. Unless you are in Pembrokeshire where a possible dangler could set up Saturday into Sunday and could give snowfall, especially later in the weekend. Early the next week, a shallow low drops southwards to the west of the UK on both the GFS and ECM. It is quite far east on the ECM and this means the precipitation is further inland but also that the further west you are, the more marginal. Here are some precip charts from both ECM ECM Pembs dangler GFS next week GFS dangler

Yes but depending on where you are, when you are. But for this thursday, winds are from the north west and the air isn't cold enough so in aber, the wind will be coming straight off the relatively warm irish sea. Likely to mean showers not turning to snow quick enough to fall right on the coast but inland. W

ye the light blue never shows pink anyway but not as much precipitation as we would like but these are only 6 hourly snapshots so hard to tell. I'm sure there will be enough showers Thursday to keep us busy radar watching. Still think more threat is weekend and next week but hopefully we see a few decent showers into Thursday.

Latest high resolution euro 4 output for Thirsday midday.

Very snowy run for tuesday mid, north west & west wales from GFS 18z. Metoffice not expecting much snow for southern areas of the UK wednesday night to sunday. Some local accumulations of 2cm on lower levels but nothing noteworthy at the moment. North and west your best chance. What happens after sunday though could be more interesting. Await the Euro4 18z run with interest for thursday

Andy if you are using the gfs, you should use the 0.25" charts instead, there more accurate