bradymk

Earlier this year we had a +5.660 in March, the highest ever recorded for march and the 2nd of all time but quite rare! Just been looking at some stuff for the coming winter, the AO has decreased to -5 or lower on 12 separate occasions since 1950. Amazingly, FOUR of these were during the 2009/10 winter which was pretty remarkable. Having been looking at the AO this morning, another interesting connection is July AO's and the following winter. This July featured the second most negative Arctic Oscillation on record, second to only 2009. Out of the top 15 most negative AO July’s on record, 14 of those 15 featured a negative AO in the winter that followed. Obviously there are so many other variables, particularly this winter but interesting nevertheless. Also, recently regarding the current El Nino, the water has recently started to become warmer in the central pacific than the eastern Pacific where it has cooled relatively to the past few weeks. Now this could be the start of a El Nino Modoki beginning to set up which would increase our chances of a colder winter but this looks like it may now be just temporary with Nino 1+2 warming again from the WWB in the future.

That WSI Full basin 500 height anomalies looks awfully similar to the CFS forecast for DJF beneath....

Certainly a chilly end to the GFS 12z this afternoon. Ridge building in the atlantic giving quite a strong northerly flow for Monday 16th. A few colder members in the GEFS starting to appear for mid month too...

Plenty of cloudless days here! But we've also had plenty of horrendous days this summer. Seems to always be the case on the coast here in west wales that we do seem to have more cloudless days than many inland as convective cloud rarely builds up or only lasts for a short time. The only problem here is that heat is non existent. Had one day this summer over 25c but most days high teens. Today and yesterday both almost completely cloudless but only 18/19c. Still pleasant though

Certainly a strong signal for high pressure to be situated near or over the UK for the foreseeable future, especially for the southern UK where it stays colder for longest. Probably two weeks or possibly more of high pressure with temperatures starting to recover day by day to average from Saturday. Some interest in GEFS suite after Day 10 to the west with more amplification but nothing more than interest at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on. What happens after this (mid month) i think is still unclear. Metoffice bang on about more anticyclonic weather beginning of Feb a few weeks back though. Also about a potential blocking pattern, this looks clear now too, a blocking pattern for W Europe for the next 10 days at least. Matt tweeted about the EC 32 bringing scandi block later through Feb so i think maybe just a bit of a patience for the second half of the month. the model has performed well. For me, cold clear and frosty weather is the second best to snow so i'm personally happy (ish) about the next few days anyway.

looks like its moving too much south, rather than west as Rhys says above. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1422866700&zoom=7&lon=-3.33&lat=52.63

another big shower looks like its about to hit you

Hopefully mate, not too sure, think the front of the band will start to die out as it reaches around Gloucester but we will see, hopefully not. Thursday looks the best chance of seeing some possible snow flurries here.

im hopeful but expecting it to die out almost completely time it reaches here.

When i was in Pembrokeshire, it snowed in Cardiff a lot. Now i am in Cardiff, it is currently snowing at home in Pembrokeshire. Sods law.

Big tease from the UKMO, 144 almost a chart. Saw somewhere that Ian did say MetOffice were monitoring the chance of a possible colder northerly next weekend...

Good dangler setting up now for Pembrokeshire area, wish i was at home. Dry cloudy and cold in Cardiff.

Snow today for Carmarthenshire and west parts of coast before shifting even more westwards into pembrokeshire this evening and overnight. Good streamers setting up

No one can deny that this is not cold for the end of this week. -10 uppers with an easterly flow. That will be very cold across all of wales so for the "this cold spell is just below average temps", the end of the week should disprove that. BUT, the problem is that the flow would be mainly dry again. We all want to see cold and snow, not cold and sun. So really for many it will still be a disappointment.

the cold spell that's only been really started maybe 2 days really so far? End of last week was never the start of the cold spell, coldest air was always forecast to move south last night and today.The problem with this cold spell is now that although it's going to be cold for almost a week, 2-4c max with 0 to -4/-5 min, it looks to be dry cold rather than snowy and that is the disappointment. The air is cold enough for snow for the coming week, the problem is, there won't be any precipitation around. Overall my opinion would be it hasn't really started yet but this cold spell is a disappointment if you want snow. It was too marginal when there was precipitation and now next week when it is cold enough, it will be dry. If you like clear days and frosty weather, you'll love this week. Personally, I'm disappointed but id rather cold and frosty than windy mild and wet.

snow but the precipitation is too far west on that run to affect the majority of wales

Very heavy hail here in Cardiff. Some places in the north west (Derbyshire) have had a foot today. Heavy rain now. if only the cold air that filtered down earlier today that gave snow earlier was not replaced by this less cold air, we would of had a great night.

Temperatures rising, 4c now, we're on the wrong side of this low, and probably will stay that way. North and east wales may do better.

Risk of snow Monday and Tuesday, small feature moving southwards Monday could give snow. Too far away really for any accuracy. A 100/couple hundred miles change can make a huge difference between rain/snow

Rain in belfast, you dont really want to be on the western side of the feature unfortunately, looks too warm. Monday still of interest, similar feature moving from the north but currently modelled further west and in much colder air.

Yep. Although if it tracks further west, maybe we will see something but we are too far south and west of the low in the current track (milder side). As you go further north and east, your chances will increase. You can see the less cold air in Northern Ireland at the moment, the heavy precipitation arriving in the west is of the wet rather than the white variety it was earlier. If you're above 200 metres and in east mid wales, you're probably going to have a good night.

Line of showers coming down from the north west look to just about miss me to the east here in Cardiff

ECM and NMM have it east, missing most of wales. Euro4 has it further west, the BBC graphics that were posted earlier are using the euro4. The further west the low tracks the better the chance for snow in wales. It's going to be a tricky forecast. Even if it does track further west, you want to be probably 200 metres plus for accumulating snow. Ian Fergie is on now so we will see what he says. Ian using the euro4 by the looks of it. Goes snow for most of wales but looks like rain on the South Wales coast, if the low tracks slightly further west then we are in business! The further north and east you are the better.

Ye polar lows form in unstable polar air, they form at short notice and aren't normally found until 12 hours out. This feature will move southwards through wales and south west overnight. It is what has given the snow and wind warning from the metoffice. But the air doesn't quite look cold enough, so looks like rain/sleet lower ground with snow higher ground unfortunately.

Snow for Tuesday still on the 12z GFS, if not better than earlier runs. Dangler Saturday night into Sunday too...