bradymk

Brrrrr, UKMO still showing the cold to last longer than GFS. Hard to trust either of these models atm mind, so probably best to await ECM and it's ens once again...

Yes but even if the Atlantic does come back in for a time, the Met office see that from the middle of next week, not early Monday as GFS shows with it staying cold until at least Wednesday/Thursday according to them. GFS likely too progressive regardless the eventual outcome.

Looks like the Met Office think the cold will at least last until the middle of next week. Could be some pretty cold temps as the high moves over us through the weekend. The uncertainty of the upcoming week aside though, Ed posted a few days ago about the positive anomalies starting to show up to our north west again by the end of the GEFS period. Still there today...

Still skeptical of any notable snow in low areas in Wales end of the week. Chances are good though mid and north Wales and the higher up you are but I think the main populated areas on the south coast (Swansea Cardiff) may struggle to see any at the moment...we'll see

Quite a shift in the Ensembles too but wouldn't read much into it quite yet. Still think though that we do have a decent chance of staying cold for quite a while longer than has been showing on some runs but we do need the high modelled in a favourable place (further north) like on tonight's GFS. Let's see what tomorrow brings, seen some pretty big inter run changes last few days

And it's, GFS vs the Euros, round 546 Edit: although 120 ecm not as good as the UKMO. More of a middle ground from ECM, much better than GFS still though.

This is very rare that NHC publish something like this in January, not common at all. This is a feature that's going to cause the models and us some pain over the next few days.

GFS 6Z showing us to keep the faith in the mid range due to the continued inconsistency. We still have some disagreements in the 3/4 day range let alone 8 days time when we have an Azores low that needs to be modelled correctly. History tells us that will probably play a big problem with inter run consistency, so for now, we keep waiting...

Life would be much easier if the GFS didnt exist at times. It adds so much stress to model watching. Not a great 18z run again but the ensembles are better, perhaps not as good as previous suites though but wouldn't read much into either to be honest. Best bet here is too head to bed and wait for the 00z's euros. Hopefully we'll have more agreement by this time tomorrow...

In terms of the disagreements still at day 4, JMA and ECM are almost identical at +96

Why are some people not happy with the UKMO 144 chart? Here is the UKMO 144 from today Here is the same chart from yesterdays ECM run So how is that not a good UKMO today? Has stronger heights in Greenland. Only difference is the arctic high is not as close to Greenland as it was on the ECM run.

GFS isn't an awful run. It is cold. It's just not as good as UKMO in getting the cold as south as quickly and does look more risky. Again, its just not consistent from the GFS and it will change again by the next one. Great last UKMO chart, we await the ENS and ECM.....

Quite large differences here early on between UKMO and GFS. UKMO the better.

Yes, comparing the day 10 charts (and before) for GFS and EC you can clearly see the difference in the modelling of the arctic high. ECM keeping a strong high over the Arctic and very close to the Greenland heights at day 10. GFS has completely got rid of it by day 10 and at an earlier timeframe than showed too.

Yes but thankfully the EPS much less keen on that system getting as far north and as deep as how the op showed. We'll see what it shows tonight but luckily for us, we know a system like that at day 7/8 coming up from the Azores is not going to be modelled very well.

Haha one day they'll stop the GFS at +240, one day....

Last night 18z gave us this Today's 00z gave us this Tonight 18z gives us this And for those that are maybe new and worried, don't worry, the 00z will probably look completely different again. We have good agreement now from GEFS and EPS of a sustained cold pattern building for NW Europe. We'll have the odd rogue run or not so cold run I'm sure next few days, but it's certainly exciting times. Same again tomorrow!!

A great day. Awesome ECM run, best we've seen for a long time. Talk about going from one extreme to another with December's records to a possible very cold end to January. In regards to MetO, I would hedge my bets that tomorrow is an important day regarding there outlook. If we have a solid day again tomorrow just like today, there outlook will change. There clearly supporting the cold outlook, but not public on the longetivity and potency yet...

Cold edging southwards slightly quicker this run already. Higher heights slightly more northwards to our NW compared to 6z too. Little things in a bigger picture i know but better to see than the opposite.

Nice improvement in the GEFS mean from the 12z suite. 6z 12z

Regardless of the above discussions. It's hardly a bad outlook at all. Yes it's not turned out at the moment like that ECM run where the Atlantic heights joined up with the Arctic. But even with this mornings relatively more disappointing op run, it's still going to turn much colder and drier in the mid term. Frosts at night with temperatures struggling only a couple of degrees above freezing in the day for most. Its a massive improvement on the recent pattern and still time for improvements. We all know too well that it's quite possible that we see an upgrade in the pattern again by 7pm tonight. Plus reading some of the posts from earlier, it seems we have all the reason to be optimistic in the longer term. 8-14 from ECM Colder and Drier. How cold though? We'll probably know in a couple of days.

Some rough estimates of temperatures from tonight ECM. This site uses ECM data for its forecasts. Glasgow and Birmingham attached. This would be delightful after what we have had to endure so far

Higher Res not quite as widespread. Higher ground mainly but either way, it's a nasty little system if it were to occur.

This mornings runs in particular trended in the direction of less disruption of the trough with the atlantic further east. However, it seems it is all still to play for based on that UKMO run with the wedge of heights east of Iceland (GEM too) helping to disrupt the trough, so we await the ECM. But even if next week doesn't quite deliver that cold and snow we all crave, the hemspheric pattern that is occuring in the models is going to give a major change into January with us likely to have a much better shot at a prolonged cold spell further into Jan. GFS later stages demonstrating the huge change. The pendulum has swung after the mildest December on record here... edit: Massive change in the hemispheric profile in two weeks time...

ENS not quite backing the op yet but the control does go cold also. Still a large cluster of milder members but of course it doesn't mean these are right either. Support grows but the jury is still out.