bradymk

Looks like Euro v America after a brief look at 00z suites. Feels like that's the 1000th time that has been the case while being on this forum. Looking at something more longer range. JMA long range ensembles - Day 17-30 (19th Nov to 2nd Dec) Obviously a more muted signal being almost a month away but clear signal for heights staying above normal to our north and below to our south. Nothing we don't really already know though and just reinforcing the potential for late November/early December.

Yes the Sea ice will inevitably start to accelerate over the coming weeks but for October it is the lowest it has ever been as of the 27th by some distance. October is a key month for factors such as arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover. What happens now, particularly during October can cause feedback loops for the upcoming winter months. In regard to how much it will affect the winter, numerous studies have shown Arctic sea ice loss plays an important role in weakening the stratospheric polar vortex. Basically, planetary scale wave generation by sea ice losses and its upward propagation during early winter months can cause a weaker Strat PV and can then cause -ve AO at the surface. Either way, it certainly affects atmospheric circulation and at a record low, we're entering a sort of atmospheric unknown so to speak but it certainly increases chances of -AO/-NAO. Obviously too, Arctic sea ice represents only one of the possible factors that can affect the polar vortex. Eurasian snow cover, the QBO, El Niño/La Nina and solar activity are just some others, but we're in a good position in terms of sea ice and snow cover. Someone else will be able to explain better! But it's certainly a very important factor and it's record low situation this year is a good sign for sure.

Arctic temperatures were close to average throughout the summer but are now way above ECMWF reanalysis averages from 1958 to 2002. Arctic sea ice also very low for time of year, even below 2012. With good advancing snow cover too then these particular factors are looking pretty good for us and a -NAO/-AO. The record low arctic sea ice is particularly eye catching and is clearly going to have a large part to play. Arctic sea ice is now around 450,000 sq km behind the record-low extent for Oct, unprecedented and with the current state of the stratosphere and Eurasian snow cover, I'm feeling quietly confident going into this winter. Some charts below just to show the unprecedented arctic situation.

obviously a downgrade on the heat last couple of days which is a shame but a nice few summery days to come weekend and early next week. My post above from couple of days ago about high pressure moving in from south west late next week. Still think this the most likely outcome after a breakdown mid week, although this probably only transient once again and better the further west.

Much better from GFS 18z. Slightly slower breakdown of the hot weather next week with warmer uppers and these also lasting longer than on earliers ECM run. Hopefully a trend in this direction from 00z ECM. Think the heat will probably last from Monday until late Wednesday for most. Keep an eye out for high pressure possibly building in again from the south west/south late next week after the breakdown mid-week too

Don't think the northerly will be as potent as some are thinking. A below average temp trend as next week goes on nevertheless but do think models will now trend towards a less potent northerly with the high closer to the UK as next week moves into a more reliable timeframe. UKMO 144 a lot better than expected!

Sleet here in north Cardiff Clair

The snow part mainly for ground 200m+ unfortunately Clair and then only 1-2cm. Ice the main hazard. Heavy precip moving across Wales at the moment but probably too warm now for anything but rain/hail from this, we shall see. Higher mid wales could see quite a bit in a short time from this shower. Milder air associated with the band of precip.

6z GFS showing the threat of heavy rain in the south west on Friday...

Anyone still have access to the parallel ECM?

Another slider at +216, and very cold over the UK. Looking like a possible lengthy spell of cold

ECM sticking with the mainly dry and cold theme again so far..

yes true, was just talking purely on the ECM run in my post there as it was the only run i had seen. Looking at GFS, 00z had it, 06z didnt so we'll see. Either way, long period of colder weather coming up.

Although perhaps not as cold and snowy outlook as some of us on here may be craving, the upcoming period looks probably coldest period particularly in terms of longevity for almost 3 years (March 13) ECM dry cold and sunny mid week before becoming cloudier Friday and over the weekend but staying cold. Would feel very cold in the quite strong north easterly breeze by end of the weekend in the south. Staying dry though.......for now. As BA says above though, time is not in our favor if its lowland snowfall in the south you want. Sooner the better!

Definitely a signal brewing among all these for the azores high moving further NW. Signal in EPS for the high to our NW today too....we shall see. EC JMA GEM GFS GEFS

If there wasn't so much energy left around Greenland after the main part of the vortex moves east, we could be seeing some much better charts at day 8/9.

Last chart of ECM, notice how the vortex and low heights over Greenland have shifted east. Could be where we're potentially heading down the line...

A lot more support in the ENS than I thought there would be. Clearly this still remains an option for next week. GFS(P) has been keen on this too the last few runs so therefore it gives us something to look forward to for the 12z's.

First proper cold night of winter of here in Cardiff. -2.3c at 9pm and falling in the centre, more like it!

Not sure Backtrack. For that area, the more east the precip is, more likely of it turning to rain/sleet or being rain/sleet all along. We'll see, tricky one. Although updated arpege may suggest otherwise!

Just depends how Far East the precip goes I think. Milder air gradually filtering eastwards throughout the day. But still St Helens and Warrington may be ok for some falling snow on the leading edge but more eastwards it then goes more it will start to turn to rain later.

Most of what you are seeing on the radar is anomalous propagation I think the term is. Nothing actually falling from the sky in most places. Some flurries in places perhaps but nothing really. Be nice to even see a flurry though haha.

Radar shows it is but It's not. I think the correct term for it is anomalous propagation (Anaprop)

Haha I know. Tell me about it, haven't seen falling snow since January 2013 and that was only a slushy covering for a few hours in Pembrokeshire so I feel your pain too...

Tonight we're on the milder side of the frontal boundary coming down from the NW so any precip likely to be rain or none at all. Monday still too uncertain and looks messy but snow maybe possible for more northern and eastern areas of Wales. Unlikely to see anything disruptive anywhere else at the moment. But 100 mile shifts can make all the difference. We'll see