bradymk

Been out most of the night, since when did Sunday chances improve so much. Looking at GFS 18z and ARPEGE 18z, this could be close...particularly later Sunday

Showers just seem to die out Andy before they reach Cardiff. So frustrating, plus it’s been too warm all day here for snow anyway!

Back to rain/sleet after a sharp snow shower. Snow when showers are heavier. I bet out of Cardiff will be completely different.

The air will be much colder later on too so if it would be a good time for more showers to pop up!

Euro 4 6z and GFS 6z almost identical at +48.

Mainly the hills of mid wales and then North Wales though. Will be a good dumping for them definitely! Not expecting any down south though unfortunately unless things change.

2-5cm in places the warning said. And it was until 18:00 Saturday. Let’s see what today brings as the air gets colder.

It is very frustrating. This will change later on and it will be cold enough everywhere but will there still be the showers around then. Probably not knowing our luck!

Back to very light drizzle now. Looks like showers are losing most of there energy just outside Cardiff to the hills!

Snowing here in Cardiff. But only when it started to get heavier. Around -7c upper temps at the minute but -9/-10 by 10am ish which should make all showers snow to all levels then.

I’d hang fire. Temperatures still dropping, getting colder through the morning, that next band about to hit Cardiff should be snow. Although welsh hills are taking the oomph out of the showers.

Warning now issued for Sunday. Thanks for posting clusters MWB, 5 clusters at day 4 shows Sunday is still going to chop and change a bit yet.

Second slider Wednesday much further south on this run too

Clear difference between yesterday 12z UKMO and today’s. GFS very similar to 6z.

Big correction south west on GFS 6z for Sunday. Things will get very excited in here if this run is on the money.

Better heights getting north late Saturday on this run. Further correction south likely here.

I moved from Pembrokeshire to Cardiff in late 2013. I haven’t seen any falling snow at all in Cardiff during that time. I think this is the best chance since i’ve been here. Yes it’s not going to be December 2010, but -10/-11c uppers Friday, sub minus dew points for whole country. Anything that falls from sky will be snow. The only problem with Cardiff and showers is they do tend to die out to the north of the city on higher ground

Yes the slider probably isn’t going to deliver the goods for most of Wales although you will probably see some snow on leading edge and maybe later Sunday and into Monday. Still time for corrections Friday though, very cold and snow to all levels. 2-5cm but will definitely vary place to place! I would say the whole country has a good chance of seeing snow on Friday at some stage. Lets see

Before Sunday, GFS shows a more organised shower/precip band moving down through southern counties from the north west Friday night into Saturday morning. One to watch.

Think the models will continue to struggle with this “slider” for another day yet. Tomorrow 12z’s will bring us within +96 though so hopefully we have some agreement by then. This a bit off on a tangent and I know ECM is statistically the best model, but the last good snowfall in Wales in Jan 13. Look at it’s output change in 24 hours. From the +120hrs 12z chart one day to the following days 12z run at +96. Massive change in just 24 hours. Completely different event and situation but what a perfect slider that was! I am not comparing situations but just trying to highlight that we still have time for a fairly big change in the main models even if we are at +120. ECM +120 ECM +96 the next day

Times like these are when I would love to see what MOGREPS is showing for the slider....

JMA got the low sliding SE’wards much further to the west. ECM probably too far east going off past experiences with this sort of setup. Will have to wait until we get some sort of agreement but exciting times!

Yes Nick. Bluearmy said yesterday that the wedge was going to become more apparent and it has. Those weak positive heights to north just helping deflect that jet. I suspect deflect it even more come the reliable timeframe...(hopefully)

Milford Haven Port Authority recorded a 87mph gust this afternoon. A lot of trees down in Pembrokeshire! Some coastal flooding at high tide too!

All schools now closed in Pembrokeshire too. Not surprised when seeing photos over Facebook like this. Not peak gusts yet either.