bradymk

More dandruff now, car roofs with specks on!!! ps. Tomorrow Friday still looking great.

Just a few flakes in the wind here at the moment. Nothing on ground. So typical ??

The rain/snowfall tab can be quite confusing to be fair yes. Shows the blanket of pink like you say. But if you use the precipitation tab instead you will see the precipitation in more detail. Use both together is best tool.

No model can be trusted ?? just got to wait for tomorrow and hope the good output continues. Massive day tomorrow! We will have good idea this time tomorrow about Thursday and Friday. Hopefully will also see some more showers during day tomorrow too as the sun gets going.

Here it comes from the Euro4! Look at precip to the south moving north. Looking forward for that to come into range.

Fair enough. Personally thought it was better than the last run for precip on Thursday night. Friday afternoon it has less precip but more initially. Thursday night looks main event. Let’s see what the 00z brings. Hirlam and arpege still great and higher res.

GFS keeps cold until next week too. Be interesting to see if this trend gathers pace. Snow even on Sunday in wales on GFS tonight.

HIRLAM, Arpege still solid for Thurs/Fri. Heavy snow Thursday, turning slightly milder further west in Wales but cold air quickly comes back south so window very brief and hours of snow before that happens. Arpege and HIRLAM particularly snowy. GFS also good. Euro4 now.... WISH I COULD BANK THAT ARPEGE RUN! Look at the snow depths

How come? Thought it was best run for a couple of days.

Not sure why my posts keep getting duplicated. Yes looks a pretty disruptive two days

Precip decreased a little bit on Icon 18z. Let’s see what GFS does

Precip decreased a little bit on Icon 18z. Let’s see what GFS does

Crazy forecast for Cardiff city centre on Thursday. -2c max in daytime with snow arriving, 45MPH winds!!! ECM showing 25mm of precipitation over the two days for Cardiff.

I still think, although small and not the form horse, that we could see something aking to the GEM. Stays cold right to the end with more snow for many. Bluearmy said about ECM being similar to GEM earlier on. Obviously it then diverges but clearly some uncertainty still. I’d say we’re still in with a fighting chance of something better than currently shown across the board. Let’s see what ENS show. hopefully GEM is on to something.

Shower intensifying slightly as about to hit. Temperatures below freezing already. -1c in city centre.

Moderate snow shower in cardiff now. Small area though, probably won’t even affect whole city.

Freezing rain evident on ECM significant weather charts for Thursday night. Here is Late Thursday/early Friday. freezing rain very close. (This is after hours of snow though). Freezing rain is red interesting ecm also has some snow Saturday as colder air digs back in.

Quick update - only had quick glance at ECM but looks great for us for Thursday. Disruptive accumulations building up. havent checked precip, but looks best output this evening and going forward real risk of freezing rain on Thursday night ECM too, but we still look far enough north at the moment to stay as snow. Close call so stay tuned. East Ireland is the sweet spot for this but we look in great position too. Dublin really taking a hammering.

up to 20cm

I think as best placed as any for this particular event. Should be far enough north to stay in colder air and not too far north that we will miss precipitation. Still very uncertain though with the low pressure. I think we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z’s run for a more accurate prediction. met office clearly confident issuing amber. I don’t think we’ll see red this time. Doesn’t look as bad as earlier in week but still significant accumulations and disruptive. Lets see what happens next 24 hours and see what ECMWF brings tonight too. I have only glanced at 12z’s, but arpege and ICON (higher res modes) and HIRLAM all looked good. Awaiting Euro4

Metoffice text also very good for Thursday. “Prolonged snowfall with significant accumulation”

Metoffice text also very good for Thursday. “Prolonged snowfall with significant accumulation”

That shower moving south looks promising for you. Looks heavy too (sorry not sure why this has posted twice)

That shower moving south looks promising for you. Looks heavy too

Roofs white and grass. Nice heavier shower with small dry flakes.