bradymk

Arpege showing 31+ c Tues, wed and thurs for parts of SW Eng, W Mid and SE wales inland! A lovely 28c here in Cardiff. Humidity quite low too which is helping to make it feel a little more comfortable than some more recent spells.

Ridge lasting almost the whole run on the 6z albeit a few minor intrusions. Low accumulated precip for the whole run. Taking into account too that the precip goes low res after a certain timeframe. Generally between 2-10mm for most of the south for the whole 16 days. Arpege still going for 30c/31c with SW England the hotspot early this coming week.

Yes. The south west of England looking the hot spot currently. Arpege going for 30c Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with 31c. Scorcher!

Potential for some places down south to see some falling snow tomorrow if the heavier precip makes it. Particularly over hills. Chance of some wet snow for a time due to evaporative cooling. Shouldn’t amount to anything on the ground mind.

Low heights, slack flow. Evaporative cooling under heavy precip effect here? HIRLAM too

Looking at the ECM Signifiant weather charts this evening is quite something. Snow for many late Tuesday Wednesday, Thursday and Friday next week. this is almost April, crazy!

Snowing heavily here now. Fresh covering everywhere including pavements and road!

Big band of precip to hit South Wales tonight. Wasn’t forecast but looks organised and a fair intensity too. Could be a tricky morning.

12z models firming up on idea of more snow tonight now. Uncertain still and different intensity/location of different models. If you look on radar the precipitation in south east is growing and intensifying

Hopeful for some more tonight but track uncertain. Keep an eye on how it develops on radar. Further north the better.

Still -1c in Cardiff, almost midday. Snow petering out. Good covering though. Unfortunately ground temp above freezing due to the mild days prior to this cold snap so melting occurring from underneath rather than a thaw from air temperature. Should remain in most places and freeze overnight. Roads and pavements melted now.

Probably looking at 5-10cm Jay. Probably 10cm-15 on higher areas. Let’s see what happens. Still looks good to me for sat night and Sunday morning

Arpege also still going for the direct hit for most of the UK like the Icon. Long way to go yet. Probably Thursday 12z

Slightly stronger signal in EPS this morning for something to perhaps build out west day 10 and beyond?

-13c 850hpa on 18z GFS. ECM below -10c too. So a little lower on sat night/Sunday than you said. No doubt sun is going to raise the air temp more than in mid winter. However dew point will be well below zero again which is the important thing. ECM has snow for all of wales Saturday night and temperatures not getting above 0c all day Sunday for Cardiff. Brrrrr still a long way to go mind!

Time to keep a close eye on the models again this week. Still too far out at the moment but increasing signs of another cold spell from the east starting next weekend. Unlikely to be as severe as the last one because of the time of year now but needs watching for sure.

Yes agree Steve. If something notable happens in next two weeks then great but looking forward to some warm sunshine and longer days now! 2 weeks until BST!

ECM tonight showing snow for higher ground tomorrow night for a time. Gets quite low down for a time to be fair.

ECM tonight showing snow for higher ground tomorrow night for a time.

UKMO pretty grim for Sunday. GFS although grim too, does keep the strongest winds in France as Karlos says above. Of more interest is the mighty GEM. That potentially a more white than wet and windy Mother’s Day. Just one of many options on table for weekend.

Yes still a good covering almost everywhere. Havent left house today but our road and garden still deep. But I hear major roads and pavements fine now. Seems to have thawed where it was thin cover on pavements etc but the drifts in garden and on our estate not going anywhere quite yet.

Snowing in Cardiff again ??

No way. Rain still in centre but can feel temp dropping. We may perhaps have one last glimse of snow for a hour or so if it can drop that’s little bit further

Temps dropping in Cardiff. Back down to 2c. I wonder if the beast will have one last hurrah before real mild air arrives tomorrow.

Rain now and thaw starting. although doubt our garden will be melting that quickly!! Very impressive for sea level in a city centre. A mixed week for Wales, bitter for all but feel really sorry for the Bridgend to Llanelli line. Really unfortunate about the shadow. But for us in Cardiff, it was probably the best snow event here since 1982 I imagine? To get snow as deep as it has been at Sea Level in March is pretty impressive. It’s a shame it wasn’t at the start of the cold spell so we could hang on to it a bit longer. But a historic event here nevertheless. 51cm lying snow at St Athan on the coast. The drifts in the valleys really impressive too. In regard to the winter, early December was unlucky. That could have also been a great snowfall in Cardiff and rest of southern coastal Wales but we were only just the wrong side of marginal. Further inland was great. So for the people who had that snowfall, you will have also had this weeks heavy snow. For you, two great events this winter from frontal snowfall. Not a historic winter on the whole, but a good finish and probably a historic event for areas in South East Wales this week. Relatives in Pembrokeshire also had a great event Thursday/Friday with easily the worst low level snow there since 2010 too. We might just scrape another cold spell out of this winter but approaching mid March you want to start to see a warm up not bitterly cold weather. Nevertheless looks the potential for some more cold weather. Would take a lot for low level snow though later into March. enjoy the last of the snow!